• Paul Krishnamurty on the state of play, six weeks out

• Never Trump movement threatens to derail Trump

• Toxic Vance and divisive tactics will compound problems

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There are exactly six weeks until the US Election and things could barely be closer.

Already tight, the betting has tightened over the past 48 hours, in light of polls countering the positive trend for Harris last week.

All seven swing states remain on a knife-edge.

Polls remain too close to call

Indeed if polls are the sole criteria upon which you are predicting the winner, expect it to remain too close to call, deep into the day after the election and perhaps beyond. However, on a more broader measure - enthusiasm, organisation, and party unity - there is no contest. Kamala Harris and the Democrats are way out in front.

Democrats look perfectly united

First, consider the Democrats. Their candidate was anointed, unopposed. Their convention was a gigantic love-in, with participants talking of enthusiasm unseen since Barack Obama's first election in 2008. Harris continues to attract huge crowds at her rallies. She is out-raising and outspending Trump by big margins.

Last week, Oprah Winfrey hosted a TV event with Harris, numerous popular celebrities and influencers from Chris Rock to Meryl Streep, and hundreds of diverse activist groups. Their purpose is to 'Unite for America'. Predictably, it triggered a rant from Trump and countless insane conspiracy theories among his supporters.

78-year-old man running for president hate watches Oprah Winfrey and Kamala Harris. pic.twitter.com/QQUDilHUiF

-- Mike Sington (@MikeSington) September 22, 2024

That madness aside, it didn't move the market and one could easily dismiss it as a typical liberal hype, alien to 'ordinary Americans'. Only it wasn't particularly ideological and nor was Harris in her answers. My takeaway was the vibe came across as determined, practical, focused. An effective, unified electoral machine, clear in its aims and ready for business. There is no substantial or credible opposition on the left or centre of US politics.

Cheney leading Never Trump movement

Compare that to the other side. On Sunday Liz Cheney, former minority leader in the House under Trump and chair of the January 6th Committee, warned that Conservatives may need to start a new party. In the meantime, she is spearheading a movement of Republicans trying to defeat Trump in November, or at the very least going on the record saying they cannot endorse and will not vote for Trump.

That ever-expanding list includes former Speaker Paul Ryan, whose base was ultra-swing state Wisconsin, former Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey and 2012 presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Trump's former VP Mike Pence is among 40 out of 44 of his Cabinet members refusing to endorse him or serve again. There are also these 17 former staff members speaking out, and over 700 national security officials endorsing Harris.

Former Republican Speaker of the House Paul Ryan says he will not be voting for Trump:

"Character is too important to me--and the presidency is a job that requires the kind of character that he just doesn't have...I'm going to write in a Republican"
(May)
pic.twitter.com/okBobS6tLZ

-- Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) September 21, 2024

NEW

Seventeen former staff members of the late Republican President Ronald Reagan are endorsing Vice President Harris. In a joint statement first obtained by CBS News, the staff members wrote that Reagan, if alive, would have supported Harris:

"President Ronald Reagan famously... pic.twitter.com/TMJi7dGTG8

-- Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) September 15, 2024

Even small-scale defections could swing election

How much does any of this matter? Nobody seriously questions whether Trump, or Trumpism, now owns the Republican Party.

But voices like Ryan, Cheney or more importantly, national security figures, still make up or reflect a not insignificant proportion of Republican voters. In a close election, Trump can't afford to lose a tenth, or maybe even a 20h of his vote from 2020. Ryan's voice likely counts for something in Wisconsin, as does Toomey's in Pennsylvania. Just as Cindy McCain's campaigning in Arizona has hurt Republican in the elections since her husband's death.

Furthermore, these characters are political professionals, who know how to campaign and where to target. They are going into deep-red districts where Democrats would never bother trying. We saw how active Republicans were split during the primaries, when Nikki Haley was still winning over a quarter of the vote even after exiting the race. Now 'Haley voters for Harris' are running what they describe as a micro-targeted campaign.

Meanwhile, on the ground, Associated Press report a distinct lack of activity such as door knocking in swing states.

Wisconsin Haley Voters for Harris Director Craig Peterson @zigmanjoseph "leading what could be a very consequential campaign in battleground Wisconsin."@scrippsnews pic.twitter.com/lr7Ze769dJ

-- Haley Voters for Harris (@HaleyVte4Harris) September 15, 2024

I wouldn't underestimate the strength of this growing 'Never Trump' movement. He largely managed to win over internal critics in the two previous elections but that seems impossible post January 6th, and even more so given the nature of this campaign.

Ohio Gov. DeWine on whether he has seen any evidence of Haitian immigrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio: "Absolutely not... it's unfortunate that this came up."

"The Haitians who are in Springfield are legal. They came to Springfield to work." @ThisWeekABC

-- Rick Klein (@rickklein) September 15, 2024

Reportedly, Laura Loomer has been banned from campaign events, which will be of great relief to many Republicans, but J.D. Vance remains about as bad a VP candidate as Trump could have possibly picked. An unpopular figure who has even fallen out with the Republican leadership in his own state. His selection suggests Trump has zero interest in winning over, or appeasing doubters. It makes no electoral sense.

Vance and the campaign continue to double down with the (self-confessed) lies about Haitians eating cats and dogs. Next Tuesday, he takes to the debate stage against Tim Walz, who has vastly superior approval ratings. I don't see how that ends well for Trump.

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