US Election Odds and Analysis: Where does the GOP race go from here?

• Ramaswamy tactics may not work

• DeSantis remains well-placed

• Haley the big mover from first debate

We've had several days to digest and react to the first Republican debate. Several polls have been published regarding the debate winner and updating the race. All point to the same conclusion - Donald Trump remains totally dominant. Not only did a clear alternative fail to emerge, but the debate itself came across as chaotic, farcical and extreme.

If you watched the Republican Presidential debate, who do you think won?

Ramaswamy 22%
Haley 21%
DeSantis 15%
Christie 2%
Pence 2%
Scott 1%
Burgum 1%
Hutchinson 0%

.@InsiderPolling, 850 likely Republican voters, 8/24 pic.twitter.com/cO6VHlgjxM

-- Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 28, 2023

Who do you believe won the Republican debate?

Haley 23%
DeSantis 22%
Pence 12%
Christie 10%
Ramaswamy 9%
Burgum 5%
Scott 3%
Hutchinson 0%

.@PatriotPolling, 750 RV, 8/24https://t.co/M6xUnqOwE5 pic.twitter.com/2InO5ME26i

-- Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 27, 2023

2024 National Republican Primary (Shift since 8/20):

Trump 58% (=)
DeSantis 14% (=)
Ramaswamy 11% (+1)
Pence 6% (=)
Christie 4% (+1)
Haley 3% (=)
Scott 3% (=)
Hutchinson 0% (-1)
Burgum 0% (=)
Suarez 0% (=)
Hurd 0% (=)

.@MorningConsult, 1,256 RV, 8/24 https://t.co/Juy6hDJh0i

-- Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 27, 2023

Ramaswamy is Trump's man

Much of that chaos and extremity stemmed from the performance of Vivek Ramaswamy. I said weeks ago that he was being lined up to be Trump's running mate, and his actions strengthened that suspicion.

Like Trump in 2016, Ramaswamy acts as a chaos agent, consuming all the attention with noise, distractions, divisive talking points and hits on opponents. He sought to bully rivals into committing to pardoning Trump. He smeared Zelensky and was clear he would stop funding Ukraine - a key dividing line. At the weekend, he even managed to garner attention from a weaponised talking point about the Ku Klux Klan.

The trick doesn't seem to be working this time though, at least based on the polls or betting. He drifted from 15.014/1 to 22.021/1, and 9.08/1 to 15.014/1, for the presidency and nomination respectively.

Ramaswamy isn't Trump. Roughly half this electorate don't want Trump. It seems illogical that they would choose a non-celebrity copycat. I think he's entitled to be favourite for the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee, because this appears the plan, but there is probably a scandal looming over his business dealings.

Solid performance from DeSantis

Ron DeSantis remains on the ropes, betting wise and set against a very hostile narrative. However I thought he produced a solid performance from the centre stage as race leader without Trump. His message is a clear one - if you want far-Right, culture wars-led, arguably fascist government, I'm delivering precisely that in Florida, and winning big.

We know the GOP primary audience want that, given their devotion to Trump. DeSantis polls very respectably in the early primary states and fares best in second choices from Trump voters. If at some stage Trump becomes ineligible, he will be in a very strong position. Reports suggest his team are planning for the long haul, and a delegate count at the convention.

The big problem for DeSantis is being under attack from all sides. As a credible challenger to Trump, he's in the firing line from that formidable meme machine. Any negative is given the worst context, amplified and political opponents across the board pile on. I can see parallels with Trump's 2016 challenger, Ted Cruz.

Also like Cruz, it doesn't help the DeSantis cause to be running away from a confrontation with Trump. He didn't mention the name even once on Wednesday. When candidates were asked whether Mike Pence was right to certify the 2020 election result, DeSantis only did so after delay, looking extremely awkward.

Haley and Pence performed well

Nikki Haley must be considered one of the debate winners, coming across as by far the best general election candidate. Her relatively moderate language will play much better with independent voters. I'm not surprised her presidential odds have halved from 65.064/1 to 32.031/1. Whether her slight jump in the polls heralds something bigger than being leader of a minority NeverTrump faction, remains to be seen.

Pence also put up a strong defence, against an often hostile crowd. He had the most talking time, and went hard against Ramaswamy, contrasting his governing experience versus the 38 year-old outsider's lack of any. He is in this race for the long haul and might end up being the choice of the anti-Trump faction, perhaps finishing a distant second when the rest endorse Trump to try and save their careers.

Chris Christie's tribute to his actions on Jan 6th speaks to that theory. Playing chief attack dog against Trump in this race, Christie can't win. He's hated by a vast number of Republicans and was constantly booed by the audience. I expect he stays in through the New Hampshire Primary then endorses an alternative to Trump. That may well be Pence.

As for the other three, Tim Scott had a quiet night and has dropped back sharply in the betting. His style is more conversational and not obviously suited to these cage fight debates. Doug Burgum and Asa Hutchinson only contributed occasionally, and forgettably. Neither will go anywhere.

Scope remains for dramatic Trump exit

The bigger question is less whether they can beat Trump in a challenge - for which there is little or no evidence - than whether Trump ends up being removed from the ballot. Again, there is zero indication, but backing odds of 3.6 carries huge risk. Cross-party attempts to block him from the ballot via the 14th Amendment, having participated in an insurrection, are ramping up again.

Such a plan is fraught with legal difficulties and would be catastrophic for the Republican Party. Its not an idea I'm taking seriously. Nevertheless, I do strongly believe the GOP audience isn't prepared for the effect on their hero of these multiple indictments. Anything, from Trump withdrawing after cutting a plea deal with prosecutors, to fleeing the country, to simply burning whatever support he retains with an insane, televised court appearance are possibilities.

What polls do tell us is that Trump's support drops if he is convicted. The details in the indictments are devastating. Remember, these cases will dominate the news agenda during the primaries. Chaos beckons.

Much could change from December

In the short-term, I doubt that realisation hits home. For the next three months, expect little headway from rivals. Merely some interchanging of positions. But once the Iowa Caucus campaigning hits full throttle in December, we may see some drama.

Thus my plan is to prepare for that drama, and further later in the cycle, as the convention approaches. DeSantis is right to prepare for a delegate count. I can see a scenario where two or three candidates are left as options during a brokered convention. DeSantis, Haley and Pence. If so, the Florida Governor would be an overwhelming favourite. 19.018/1 for the presidency has plenty of trading potential.

*Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.