US Politics

US Election Latest: Puerto Rico plot thickens as Trump's odds match Biden's in 2020

Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Madison Square Garden
The Madison Square Garden controversy has spiraled out of control

Trump's campaign has been under fire for comedian's Puerto Rico comments, but it's Joe Biden and the Democrats who are now on the defensive. This comes as Trump's odds are as short as Biden's in 2020 and the campaigns make their final pitch - Cai Wilshaw gives the latest on the last 24 hours in the US Election...


Puerto Rico row escalates

The Trump campaign has spent days managing a row after having to distance themselves from comments by a comedian at their Madison Square Garden rally in New York that called Puerto Rico a "floating island of garbage".


Yet the plot has thickened overnight, as Biden on Thursday evening countered "the only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters".


He has since rowed back the comments, claiming he "meant to say" that the comedian was the target of his ire. Democrats will remember with anguish the fallout from a similar comment made by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, calling Trump's supporters a "basket of deplorables".


The row has escalated far beyond expectations. A number of Latino celebrities, including Bad Bunny and Jennifer Lopez, have come out against the comments made by Tony Hinchcliffe at the New York rally on Sunday. Jennifer Lopez is set to join Harris for a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Thursday.


A number of ads targeting Latinos have also been produced to weaponise the comments against Trump.


The Latino vote could be critical in this election, as many expect Latino Democratic support to have reached a high water mark under Hillary Clinton.


Trump's odds as short as Biden's before 2020 Election

Despite the swirling controversy around his recent Madison Square Garden rally, Trump's odds have been slashed again and again over the past week.


In the past 5 days, Tump's odds have gone from 5/71.71 - which gave him a 58% chance of winning - to a whopping 8/151.53, translating to a 65% chance of winning.


This means Trump's odds of winning the election are now as short as Biden's were in 2020.


Yet while the betting markets pull heavily towards Trump, the polling paints a different picture.


The national polls are still showing this election is a tight race, with the two candidates neck and neck in a succession of polls. A 27th October poll by CBS News and YouGov has Harris at 50% and Trump at 49%, while a CNN / SSRS poll two days prior shows the two tied at 47% of likely voters.


FiveThirtyEight, a respected polling aggregator, has Harris ahead by only 1.4% in an average of all recent polls.


Both campaigns are claiming they are increasingly confident of a win. The Harris campaign believes their extensive ground campaign and strength in Blue Wall states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, can deliver them a win.


For their part, the Trump campaign says "we've never had data that looks this good", pointing to leads in early voting and swing state polling as evidence of a potential landslide victory.


The final pitch

The two campaigns will find the swirling scandal around Puerto Rico frustrating, especially as this is their week to make the final pitch to the US electorate.


Donald Trump polls far better than Harris on matters relating to immigration and the economy, and that is where his team are focusing their efforts. Claims that illegal immigration is endemic in key swing states - especially in Sun Belt swing states such as Nevada and Arizona - is a key focus for the Trump campaign.


They have also been focusing on the cost-of-living crisis and rises in inflation as evidence that the Biden-Harris administration has been playing fast and loose with the nation's finances.


The Harris campaign has been refocusing their messaging after Harris called Donald Trump a fascist last week. Instead, they have been trying to make the Harris campaign one of hope and optimism, while also leaning on the female vote by focusing on issues relating to women's rights and reproductive health.


Now head to the Politics live blog for today's latest election news!


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