Sam Rosbottom: Donald Trump takes a big step forward in US election race to the White House

• Trump's chances of winning have never been as high at this stage of an election

• Pennsylvania key as Trump goes fav to win vital swing state

• Check out our 2024 US Presidential Election Live Blog here

• View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen before at Betfair Predicts

Donald Trump takes a big step forward in US election race to the White House

After the past couple of weeks of flip-flopping between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on the Betfair Exchange US Election Winner market, the money has poured in, the odds have shifted, and it is advantage Trump less than four weeks out from election day 2024.

There's been a significant move for the former President this week, which has seen his odds drop to 1.865/6, the lowest since the start of August, way before the Presidential debate which turned the tide of the betting market against him.

So far this week, £3.3m has been matched on the election winner, and more than £2m of that has been on the former President who now heads up the market.

Previously, these bigger shifts haven't been able to maintain momentum, with the odds flipping eight times since August, so only time will tell if the gap between the two candidates continues to widen or if the odds will move again in favour of Harris.

Difficult to compare trends when this race is so unprecedented

When we look at the trends for the other US election markets on the Betfair Exchange, in every single one going back to 2004, one candidate is much clearly fancied over the other in the months going into election day.

We already know this race to the White House is unprecedented, let's face it, the goal posts dramatically moved when Joe Biden stepped aside three and a half months out from election day.

When I dig into the data, Harris was actually the favourite when the market first opened. Punters, political analysts and commentators alike all saw her as the future, but Biden didn't get the message.

That didn't stop a few shrewd punters who still saw her as the future as late as January this year, when she was backed as big as 120.0119/1.

Anyway, we are where we are, and the race is on, but it does make me wonder how the market would be shaping up if she had more time to really launch a full Presidential campaign.

With Trump, voters and punters alike know what they're going to get, but even though Harris has increased efforts to get her message out there with a number of high profile media interviews this week, there isn't the same levels of market confidence in her that there was for other Democrats before her: Biden in 2020, Hillary Clinton in 2016 (even though punters got that one wrong), or Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008. All were odds-on favourites throughout the final month of campaigning.

Looking at Trump's odds, they have never been as short to win the Presidency at this stage of the campaign as they are now.

Today he hit a low of 1.865/6, compare that to where he was 26 days out in 2020, when he was 2.9539/20, and even bigger 26 days out in 2016 at just shy of 6.86/1.

Let me rephrase: his chances of winning the Presidency have never been as high as they are at this point in the campaign.

In 2020, Biden completely dominated the final month, in fact he was the odds-on favourite five months out right up to when the votes came in.

2020 US Election Betfair Exchange market, from the start of the year to day before election day:

Trump won in 2016, and the market got that one wrong, but even still, there was a distinctive gap between the two candidates with punters clearly siding with one over the other.

Will the gap widen in favour of Trump? The previous elections' market data suggests that punters will likely side with one or the other, but as we already know, this isn't anything like those previous elections, this is the tightest US Election Betfair Exchange market we've ever seen.

Pennsylvania holds the key

This won't be the first time you will hear this, and I'm sure it won't be the last, even coming from me, Pennsylvania is going to be the lynchpin.

It's 19 electoral college votes are the most of any swing state. This is the major battleground of this election, and the margins are razor thin.

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to win here since 1988, securing victory by just 0.7%. Four years later, Biden, born and raised in Pennsylvania, won by a margin of 1.2%.

It's no surprise to see that this time around, out of all the swing states both candidates are spending the most money on ads in Pennsylvania.

This latest shift in favour of Trump on the election winner market has coincided with him also going marginal favourite - at around 1.9420/21 - to win the Keystone State. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina then he's back in the White House.

The Betfair Exchange Electoral College projection gives him 281 votes. This is determined by who is the favourite in each of the 50 state markets.

But if Harris wins Pennsylvania, then it's a different story altogether.

I'm really excited to share that in just over a week, I'll be heading over to the US to gauge the mood of the nation once again, as well as bringing you the inside scoop on what voters in three of the key swing states are saying. We'll be visiting Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Specifically, a tour of the Rust Belt: Milwaukee, Detroit, and Pittsburgh.

I'm looking forward to getting on the ground and canvasing opinion to see if Kamala Harris can hold on to those key Blue Wall states, or if Donald Trump can do what he did back in 2016 and turn those blue states red and win the White House, and we'll be taking you on the journey every step of the way across all the usual Betfair channels.

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