Trump Impeachment Odds: Conviction 14/1 as trial sees shocking footage

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
Former-US president Donald Trump
Trump looks likely to avoid conviction

Get the latest odds and news from Donald Trump's impeachment trial as bettors back US senators not to convict the former president, reports Max Liu...

It's 4/9 that 55-59 senators will vote to convict. It's 16/1 to that 65 or more will do so.

Donald Trump is 14/1 to be convicted in his second impeachment trial after senators watched harrowing footage of rioters storming the Capitol in Washington on 6 January.

The footage showed just how close Mike Pence, Chuck Schumer and Mitt Romney all came to being attacked by the mob who broke through security. Romney, who ran for president in 2012, was shown being told to run by the Capitol police.

The scenes shocked many of those at the trial, who were also present on the day of the attack, and reports have been damning about what this could mean for Trump.

And yet on Betfair the odds indicate that a conviction for Trump remains unlikely, with Exchange bettors - who make conviction 32.031/1 - in particular convinced the numbers aren't there.

Conviction requires a two-thirds majority of the Senate to agree -- 67 votes -- meaning that 17 of the 50 Republican senators would need to vote to convict. The partisan nature of American politics at present makes that unlikely.

It's 4/9 that 55-59 senators will vote to convict. It's 16/1 to that 65 or more will do so.

Only three Republican senators come from states that Trump lost in November's election so the vast majority are from states where support for the 45th president remains strong or, at the least, did until very recently.

Polls show that most Republican voters oppose convicting Trump and, with US mid-term elections only 21 months away - and 16 senators up for re-election - they will be wary of doing anything that would distance them from the party's base.

Republicans are likely to hide behind the argument that a former-president should not be impeached. In Trump's first impeachment trial, Romney was the only Republican senator who voted to convict the then president.

This all means that, however damning the evidence presented by the Democrats, the Senate is unlikely to convict the former-president and that's reflected in the odds. If that changes, you'll hear it here first.

Meanwhile, should we rule out Trump running to return to the presidency in 2024? And if he doesn't run again, who is best-placed to be the Republican candidate? Paul Krishnamurty has an early look at the market.

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