South Carolina Primary: Back an easy win for Trump at 2/1

• How to back Trump in SC at 2/13.00

• Haley is hoping for a miracle

• Get Paul's bet for Trump VP running mate

The betting remains very one-sided but the race for Republican Nominee is still just about alive. Following easy victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, Donald Trump is unbackable to win tomorrow's South Carolina Primary. Nikki Haley is available to back at odds of 120.0119/1.

Haley set for defeat in her own state

This race is especially significant because Haley is the former Governor of South Carolina. If she can't win here, and she couldn't win New Hampshire - the state where conditions favoured her the most - one must ask where she can hope to win. Even in Nevada where Trump missed the ballot after his team messed up the paperwork, Haley lost to 'none of the above' by a more than 2:1 margin.

Nevertheless, Haley carries on. Having largely refrained from attacks earlier in the race, she has been launching constant verbal missiles at Trump, questioning his cognitive abilities in the same breath as Biden, slamming Trump's electoral record and his willingness to appease dictators such as Vladimir Putin.

It doesn't appear to have made much difference. In the last four South Carolina polls, her deficit ranged between 21 and 30%.

This fits with the general trend seen with Trump since he entered politics. Everybody has a strong opinion about him and virtually nobody ever shifts. Therefore, we should expect the predictable tomorrow.

Haley did overperform the polls in New Hampshire but that was most likely due to differential turnout, favouring the large share of independent voters in that state. In our Trump Vote Share market, 60.00-64.99% is trading around 3.02/1. That's my selection.

More of same expected on Super Tuesday

Assuming we don't see the mother of all upsets, what comes next?

From Tuesday, 21 states vote within a week, culminating in Super Tuesday on March 5. As it stands, Haley's campaign is insisting she's staying in. Whilst such statements must always be taken with a pinch of salt, there is little indication that she's ready to endorse him just yet.

What's going on? My gut says she knows her bridges are truly burned with the MAGA faction who dominate the Republican Party. For now at least, there are wealthy donors willing to throw money at her campaign, as part of their battle for the party. Haley's future lies with them.

For now, it is worth staying in and accumulating delegates in the hope they will count for something at the convention. That Trump's legal and financial woes, with over $500M now due, will ultimately take a toll. His pursuit of cash looks ever more desperate by the day and many credible experts predict he will file for bankruptcy soon.

Nevertheless, it feels like wishful thinking that the GOP will turn against Trump either before or during the convention. He's just endorsed his daughter-in-law for co-chair of the RNC and she wants the party to pay his legal bills. It is now his personal fiefdom and cash machine.

Even in the extremely unlikely event that some disaster hits Trump and the convention is contested, there is no evidence to suggest they'd pick Haley instead. Rather, it would be an ultra-loyalist, endorsed by Trump.

Trump's VP shortlist is out

Which brings me to the most open and interesting US election market, as things stand. Haley is rated 6% likely to be the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee at odds of 15.5. This is a huge overestimate. No way will Trump pick somebody who has repeatedly attacked him and stands directly opposed to him on the key policy of supporting Ukraine.

Trump declared his shortlist this week and it was quite predictable. Kristi Noem has been prominent in the betting throughout. Tim Scott is his number one surrogate. Vivek Ramaswamy was a spoiler on his behalf in the primary.

Tulsi Gabbard has been in lockstep with every Trump and Putin move since he entered politics and is perfectly aligned on foreign policy. Byron Donalds has been repeatedly noted as a very close ally and is married to one of the leaders of Moms for Liberty - a far-Right organisation campaigning against school curricula and a key part of the Trump movement.

For my money, Gabbard is the value. I think Trump will want somebody who could siphon off a few would-be Democrat voters. Being multi-racial also helps to hit back against Democrat charges of racism. As a former left-wing, anti-war Democrat (nominally at least), she fits the bill.

Having served his goals when not voting to impeach in 2024, misrepresenting the Mueller Report into his campaign's Russian connections, playing the role of the token, critical Democrat on Fox News, she is now opening rallies and fundraising for Trump.

No way should she be more than twice Haley's odds and I can see odds of 21.020/1 collapsing.

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