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Betting: Is Kanye West's presidential run a lifeline for Trump?</h1> <ul class="entry_header__meta"> <li><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/authors/max-liu/">Max Liu</a></li> <li><time datetime="2020-07-05">05 July 2020</time></li> </ul> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Politics Betting: Is Kanye West's presidential run a lifeline for Trump?", "name": "Politics Betting: Is Kanye West's presidential run a lifeline for Trump?", "description": "Kanye West broke the internet by announcing his presidential run on Saturday night and the early signs are that bettors think it's a boost for Trump and blow...", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/politics-betting-is-kanye-wests-presidential-run-a-lifeline-for-trump-050720-204.html", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/politics-betting-is-kanye-wests-presidential-run-a-lifeline-for-trump-050720-204.html", "datePublished": "2020-07-05T09:27:00+01:00", "dateModified": "2020-07-05T15:30:00+01:00", "articleBody": "Kanye West broke the internet by announcing his presidential run on Saturday night and the early signs are that bettors think it's a boost for Trump and blow for Biden, reports Max Liu... At the time of writing (9am, Sunday) Joe Biden [1.79] was still the clear favourite on the Exchange to win this year's US presidential election. His odds, however, were on the drift and the reason appeared to be the rapper Kanye West's entry into the race for the White House. The price on Donald Trump winning a second term, meanwhile, came in to [2.6] - a 38% chance - which was their shortest since 20 June. West tweeted late on Independence Day that he was running for president - a move which sent his odds tumbling to [120.00] from [1000.00]: We must now realize the promise of America by trusting God, unifying our vision and building our future. I am running for president of the United States! #2020VISION&mdash; ye (@kanyewest) July 5, 2020 Trump's campaign has been in the mire for weeks and, earlier in the day polling gave him an approval rating of just 41.5% - his lowest since Feb 2019 - and he was rated the least likely incumbent in US presidential election betting history to retain the White House at odds of [2.88]. But the immediate reaction to West's announcement indicates that his run for president would help Trump and hinder Biden. That could be based on the assumption that a high profile campaign from West would take black American votes away from Biden. In 2016, 89% of black American voters backed Hillary Clinton. West didn't get involved in that election but has since been vocal in his support for Trump, meeting with Trump shortly after his victory in 2016 and visiting him at the White House to discuss prison reform in 2018. Biden is popular among black American voters and it was arguably their willingness to vote for him in the southern primaries that revived his campaign to win the Democratic nomination. In November, however, West urged black Americans: "Own your power. Your power is not to just vote Democrat for the rest of our lives." Yeezy does it - don't overestimate West's influence Last night West picked up an immediate endorsement from his friend the billionaire Elon Musk who tweeted: "You have my full support." That lead to speculation that we could see a West-Musk ticket. West previously said he planned to run for president in 2024 and Trump tipped him as a potential future leader. Now West appears to have brought forward his bid for the White House. We should be circumspect about its long term impact on the race: firstly, it's not even clear if West has yet filed the official paperwork required to stand as an independent. Secondly, his influence could well be overstated. Why would anybody follow his voting advice or be prepared to vote for him? Voters don't simply listen to what their favourite celebrities say and carry out their wishes in the polling booth. If they did then everyone from Beyonce to Bruce Springsteen would have delivered a Clinton landslide last time out. Admittedly, those celebrities weren't on the ballot but the point is that voters know what's at stake in elections - especially this one - and won't be easily swayed. Still, the early signs are that bettors think West running for president is good news for Trump. Support for Scottish independence surges A new poll by Panelbase says support for independence has surged during the pandemic and 54% of Scots would now vote for their country to leave the UK. The 54 to 46 in favour of independence is almost an exact reversal of the outcome of the 2014 referendum which saw Scots reject going it alone by 55 to 45. Generally speaking, support for independence has grown in the intervening years, with Brexit and more recently the Scottish government's decisive response to covid-19 strengthening the case for independence. The new poll shows a five-point increase in backing for independence, with a five-point fall in support for the union since the same firm surveyed voters in March. The problem for the SNP will be in persuading the UK government to let them hold another referendum. The betting reflects that, with no referendum before 2025 at [1.53] on the Exchange.", "image":[ "https://betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Donald Trump and Kanye West.728x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Donald Trump and Kanye West.547x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Donald Trump and Kanye West.410x410.jpg" ], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Betting.Betfair", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://betting.cdnppb.net/assets/img/betfairlogoblack.ea48b4e0.png" }, "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Max Liu", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/authors/max_liu" } } </script> </header> <div class="two_column_layout"> <main class="entry_main"> <div class="entry_img"> <img src="//betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Donald Trump and Kanye West.728x410.jpg" srcset="//betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Donald Trump and Kanye West.450x253.jpg 450w, //betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Donald Trump and Kanye West.600x338.jpg 600w, //betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Donald Trump and Kanye West.728x410.jpg 728w" alt="Donald Trump with Kanye West"> <figcaption class="entry_img__caption">Is Kanye heading for the west wing?</figcaption> </div> <div class="entry_actions"> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBGC01B10G30A&prod=90&rfr=2573">Join</a> </div> <div> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--twitter"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?text=Politics%20Betting%3A%20Is%20Kanye%20West%27s%20presidential%20run%20a%20lifeline%20for%20Trump%3F&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fus-politics%2Fpolitics-betting-is-kanye-wests-presidential-run-a-lifeline-for-trump-050720-204.html" target="_blank" title="Twitter"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--twitter">Twitter</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--facebook"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fus-politics%2Fpolitics-betting-is-kanye-wests-presidential-run-a-lifeline-for-trump-050720-204.html" target="_blank" title="Facebook"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--facebook">Facebook</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--reddit"> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/submit/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fus-politics%2Fpolitics-betting-is-kanye-wests-presidential-run-a-lifeline-for-trump-050720-204.html" target="_blank" title="Reddit"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--reddit">Reddit</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--whatsapp"> <a href="https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fus-politics%2Fpolitics-betting-is-kanye-wests-presidential-run-a-lifeline-for-trump-050720-204.html" target="_blank" title="WhatsApp"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--whatsapp">WhatsApp</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--telegram"> <a href="https://t.me/share/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fus-politics%2Fpolitics-betting-is-kanye-wests-presidential-run-a-lifeline-for-trump-050720-204.html&text=Politics%20Betting%3A%20Is%20Kanye%20West%27s%20presidential%20run%20a%20lifeline%20for%20Trump%3F" target="_blank" title="Telegram"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--telegram">Telegram</span></a> </div> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="#betslip">View the Betslip</a> </div> </div> <div class="entry_body has-odds"> <div class="entry_body__intro"><p>Kanye West broke the internet by announcing his presidential run on Saturday night and the early signs are that bettors think it's a boost for Trump and blow for Biden, reports Max Liu...</p></div> <div class="entry_body__quote"> <blockquote><p>"West tweeted late on Independence Day that he was running for president in this year's US election - a move which sent his odds tumbling to <a href="http://btfr.co/128151441"><b class="inline_odds" title="119/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">120.00</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">119/1</span></b></a> from 1000.00."</p></blockquote> </div> <div class="entry_body__content"> <div class="editor"> <p>At the time of writing (9am, Sunday) <span>Joe Biden <b class="inline_odds" title="4/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.79</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/5</span></b></span> was still the clear favourite on the Exchange to win this year's US presidential election. His odds, however, were on the drift and the reason appeared to be the rapper <strong>Kanye West's</strong> entry into the race for the White House. <p>The price on <strong>Donald Trump</strong> winning a second term, meanwhile, came in to <span><b class="inline_odds" title="8/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.6</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">8/5</span></b></span> - a 38% chance - which was their shortest since 20 June.</p><p>West tweeted late on Independence Day that he was running for president - a move which sent his odds tumbling to <span><b class="inline_odds" title="119/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">120.00</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">119/1</span></b></span> from 1000.00:</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We must now realize the promise of America by trusting God, unifying our vision and building our future. I am running for president of the United States! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/2020VISION?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#2020VISION</a></p>? ye (@kanyewest) <a href="https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/1279575273365594112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 5, 2020</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p>Trump's campaign has been in the mire for weeks and, earlier in the day polling gave him an approval rating of just 41.5% - his lowest since Feb 2019 - and he was rated the <strong>least likely incumbent in US presidential election betting history</strong> to retain the White House at odds of <b class="inline_odds" title="15/8"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.88</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">15/8</span></b>.</p><p>But the immediate reaction to West's announcement indicates that his run for president would <strong>help Trump and hinder Biden</strong>. That could be based on the assumption that a high profile campaign from West would take black American votes away from Biden.</p><p>In 2016, <strong>89% of black American voters backed Hillary Clinton</strong>. West didn't get involved in that election but has since been vocal in his support for Trump, meeting with Trump shortly after his victory in 2016 and visiting him at the White House to discuss prison reform in 2018.</p><p>Biden is popular among black American voters and it was arguably their willingness to vote for him in the southern primaries that revived his campaign to win the Democratic nomination. In November, however, West urged black Americans: "Own your power. Your power is <strong>not to just vote Democrat</strong> for the rest of our lives."</p><p><strong><h2>Yeezy does it - don't overestimate West's influence</h2></strong></p><p>Last night West picked up an immediate endorsement from his friend the billionaire <strong>Elon Musk</strong> who tweeted: "You have my full support." That lead to speculation that we could see a West-Musk ticket.</p><p>West previously said he <strong>planned to run for president in 2024</strong> and Trump tipped him as a potential future leader. Now West appears to have brought forward his bid for the White House. </p><p>We should be <strong>circumspect</strong> about its long term impact on the race: firstly, it's not even clear if West has yet filed the official paperwork required to stand as an independent. </p><p>Secondly, his influence could well be overstated. Why would anybody follow his voting advice or be prepared to vote for him? Voters don't simply listen to what their favourite <strong>celebrities</strong> say and carry out their wishes in the polling booth. </p><p>If they did then everyone from Beyonce to Bruce Springsteen would have delivered a Clinton landslide last time out. Admittedly, those celebrities weren't on the ballot but the point is that <strong>voters know what's at stake</strong> in elections - especially this one - and won't be easily swayed.<br> <br> Still, the early signs are that bettors think West running for president is good news for Trump.</p><p><strong><h2>Support for Scottish independence surges</h2></strong></p><p>A new poll by Panelbase says support for independence has surged during the pandemic and 54% of Scots would now vote for their country to <strong>leave the UK</strong>.</p><p><img alt="NicolaSturgeonSmiling1280.jpg" src="//betting.cdnppb.net/politics/NicolaSturgeonSmiling1280.600x338.jpg" width="1278" height="719" class="mt-image-none" style loading="lazy"></p><p>The <strong>54 to 46 in favour of independence</strong> is almost an exact reversal of the outcome of the 2014 referendum which saw Scots reject going it alone by 55 to 45. Generally speaking, support for independence has grown in the intervening years, with Brexit and more recently the Scottish government's decisive response to covid-19 strengthening the case for independence. </p><p>The new poll shows a <strong>five-point increase</strong> in backing for independence, with a five-point fall in support for the union since the same firm surveyed voters in March. </p><p>The problem for the SNP will be in persuading the UK government to let them hold another referendum. The betting reflects that, with <a href="http://btfr.co/166577732">no referendum before 2025 at <b class="inline_odds" title="8/15"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.53</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">8/15</span></b> on the Exchange</a>.</p></p> </div> </div> <section class="betting_copy"> <div class="editor"> <h2 class="promo-name bf-sportsbook" data-qa="promo-name">Refer & Earn with Betfair</h2> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description "><header></header> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description"> <p><span>For each person you <strong>successfully refer </strong>to Betfair, we'll give you <strong>£10 in CASH</strong> when they stake £10 or more on the Sportsbook, Exchange or Casino. <a href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=CACQRAEAUTOUKIE1">T&Cs apply.</a></span></p> </div> </section> </div> </section> </div> </section> <div id="betslip" class="entry_body__extras"> <script id="bet_row_tmpl" type="text/x-custom-template"> <tr 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