Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-Election: Labour favourites to win Thursday's crucial vote

Max Liu
02 October 2023
3:00 min read

Thursday's by-election is seen as hugely significant by Keir Starmer's team

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Thursday's by-election in the Scottish constituency could be the most important since the last general election so get the latest Betfair odds...

Labour odds-on to take seat
SNP longer than 13/1 with three days to go
Win could signal Labour's return in Scotland

Labour are 1.051/20 to win Thursday's by-election in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West constituency and show that they are back as an electoral force in Scotland.

The SNP are 14.5 to retain the seat which is being regarded by commentators as a bellwether of how Scotland as a whole could vote at the next general election.

The by-election has been hotly-anticipated ever since it was was triggered when constituents voted to oust the Covid rule-breaking MP Margaret Ferrier.

At the last three general elections, Rutherglen and West Hamilton and has alternated between the SNP and Labour.

Ferrier won it for the SNP from Labour in 2019 but prior to that Labour took it in 2017.

Her majority in 2019 was 5,230, so Labour require a swing on Thursday of about 6.5%, and the odds show that Exchange bettors think that is more than achieveable.

In fact, with Labour so far ahead in the by-election market, Betfair have opened vote-share markets for them and the SNP on the Exchange.

SNP leader Humza Yousef has acknowledge that his party face a huge challenge to hold Rutherglen and Hamilton West and their activists have been quoted as saying that the only question is about the margin of defeat.

Labour keen to win back Scotland from SNP

Labour are 1.558/15 to win the next general election which is all but certain to be next year.

Over the past decade, Scotland has proved to be a difficullt place for Labour to win, thanks in part to the popularity of the SNP's campaign for independence.

In 2019, at the last general election, Labour were left with just one seat. But with controversy engulfing the SNP this year, and Nicola Sturgeon resigning unexpectedly as leader, there are signs that Labour can win back the seats that would help them secure an over all majority in Westminster.

Rutherglen and West Hamilton is one of three by-elections this month - the others are in Mid-Bedfordshire and in Tamworth on 19 October- and, while Labour will be competitive in them all, Thursday's north of the border is the one that they would most like to win.

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