Keir Starmer odds-on to be next PM
General election next year is Labour's to lose
Bettors back autumn 2024 election
A Labour majority at the next general election is 1.454/9 on the Betfair Exchange and Keir Starmer is even shorter in the next prime minister betting ahead of his conference speech.
Starmer will address the Labour conference on Tuesday in a speech that could be his last before Britain goes to the polls.
There is palpable excitement within the party after their stunning victory in last week's by-election in Scotland.
Bettors back Autumn 2024 election
The general election is all but certain to be next year and Betfair have opened Exchange markets on when in 2024 it will happen. Initially, a spring election looked likely in May but April - June is out to 4.77/2.
That is because of the growing belief among political commentators that Rishi Sunak will drag out his premiership in the hope of reversing his dire polling. So we could be in for an autumn 2024 election and October to December is the current favourite at 1.4740/85.
Either way, Labour will be confident of winning at the same time as knowing that history shows that they must take nothing for granted.
A Tory majority is 11.010/1 on the Betfair Exchange and, while cutting a polling deficit of around 20 points is an enormous challenge, stranger things have happened in electoral politics of the past decade or so.
The Betfair Exchange markets make miserable reading for Tories, however, with record losses of over 200 seats trading as short as 3.052/1.
Labour aims to win back Scotland after by-election
Labour achieved probably their most important by-election victory of the past four years last week in Rutherglen and West Hamilton. Taking the seat back from the SNP, with a 24% swing to Labour, indicated that Labour could make significant inroads in Scotland at the next general election.
Over the past decade, Scotland has proved to be a difficullt place for Labour to win, thanks in part to the popularity of the SNP's campaign for independence.
In 2019, at the last general election, Labour were left with just one seat in Scotland. Now they have doubled that tally and must be optimistic about their chances of adding the kind of total north of the border that would help them win a majority at Westminster.
Starmer has benefited from the implosion of the Tories in England and the SNP in Scotland. As he makes what could be his last conference speech as leader of the opposition, bettor punters think his party is on the way to winning power comfortably next year.