Who will be next Prime Minister? Keir Starmer is just 20% chance

Max Liu
26 September 2021
4:00 min read

Rayner (right) could succeed Starmer as Labour leader

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The Labour conference is underway so get the odds on Keir Starmer's leadership and the latest German election betting news on polling day from Max Liu...

Starmer is 1.574/7 to stay in the job until 2024 or later. You can get 10.519/2 on him going this year, 5.85/1 on 2022 and 3.65 on 2023 - the year many people think will see the next general election.

Keir Starmer is 4.84/1 to be Britain's next prime minister as he prepares to make the most important speech of his Labour leadership at the party conference in Brighton.

For weeks anticipation has been building among Labour-watchers, with rumours that Starmer would take on the party's left in a style similar to Neil Kinnock at conference in 1985. This was supposed to be the moment when "the real Keir" revealed himself to the nation.

This week, he set the tone by spelling out his vision for Britain, albeit in pretty vague terms, in a 35-page pamphlet.

Real Keir derailed by spat

At the same time, Starmer tried to change party rules and reintroduce the old electoral college system that would give MPs more say in who leads their party and take power away from Labour's 400,000 members. He wants prevent a repeat of the situation when members elected Jeremy Corbyn - a leader for whom most MPs didn't vote - in 2015.

Starmer was accused by the left of a power grab and, in the face of opposition from unions and senior MPs, he has had to compromise. The perception now is that, whereas Kinnock and Tony Blair took on the left and won, Starmer has lost.

Keir Starmer Labour 956.jpg

Critics are pointing to his dismal public approval ratings (last month 59% told YouGov Starmer was doing badly as Labour leader) and claiming that, if his polling doesn't improve in the aftermath of the conference, Starmer should step down for the sake of the party's chances of winning the next election.

A hung parliament at the next election is the current favourite at 2.226/5 with a Conservative majority drifting to 2.56/4 this week. A Labour majority is 6.611/2. A more realistic goal is to win the most seats 3.02/1 and form a coalition or minority government.

Meanwhile, bettors think Starmer is unlikely to go any time soon.

He is 1.574/7 to be Labour leader until 2024 or later. You can get 10.519/2 on him going this year, 5.85/1 on 2022 and 3.65 on 2023 - the year many people think will see the next general election.

Many Labour figures, including deputy leader Angela Rayner, are unhappy that Starmer has failed to keep a lid on Labour's internal divisions. They point out that, if Boris Johnson calls an election in spring 2023, Starmer will have only one more conference before Britons go to the polls.

Rayner and Starmer clash

The tension between Rayner and Starmer has been obvious ever since the latter's botched attempt to demote the former in May. Rayner opposed Starmer's plans to change the way the leader is elected.

She did a high profile interview with the Times this weekend in which she pitched herself as a potential leader, then on Saturday night gave a speech at the conference in which she called the government "scum".

This is not what Starmer needs as he prepares to make what was supposed to be his own defining conference speech. Or is it? Could it actually help Starmer's Labour to have a deputy who is prepared to say what the leader cannot?

Rayner's "scum" comments prompted a predictable outcry from Labour's critics and demands for an apology. But it may please the left and persuade some of those who were tempted to abandon the party to stay on board. Rayner admitted afterwards that the comments were intended to put fire in the bellies of activists - something Starmer's meek rhetoric will never achieve.

Rayner is 5.95/1 to be the next leader, with Andy Burnham 3.55 the current favourite. It's high time Labour had a woman leader, as the deputy Rayner is well-placed to succeed Starmer, and at those odds she's a better bet than Burnham.

Scholz odds-on to be Germany's next chancellor

Olaf Scholz is a 78% chance to be next chancellor as Germans vote in their federal election today.

On the Exchange Scholz is 1.282/7 with bettors who believe he will succeed Angela Merkel when her 16 year rule reaches its end after the election.

Olaf Scholz outside Reichstag.jpg

It's been an extraordinary election campaign in Germany, with Scholz shortening from outsider to firm favourite over the past couple of months. His CDU/CSU opponent Armin Laschet goes into polling day at 3.8514/5 having been odds-on.

Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) are 1.211/5 to win the most seats as voters who backed Merkel at four elections look set to abandon her conservatives (CDU/CSU [4/2]) for the centre-left party.

Get three bets for the German election from Paul Krishnamurty's in-depth coverage.

Polls close at 6pm and there should be an exit poll indictor of the result shortly afterwards.

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