What does the latest politics betting say? IndyRef2 unlikely soon and German race tightens

  • Max Liu
  • 4:00 min read
Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon campaigning
Will Sturgeon call for a referendum before the next general election?

Bettors back no IndyRef2 before 2025 while in Germany polls are tightening for next month's federal election says Max Liu...

It's 8/11 that Scotland would vote to stay in the union and even odds that it would choose to leave.

You can read a fascinating piece about where we are in UK politics right now by Paul Krishnamurty so, rather than discuss the state of Boris Johnson's government, Keir Starmer's opposition and the rest, I've decided to take a look at the betting on Scottish independence and next month's federal election in Germany.

I'll just add first that this weekend's YouGov polling is consistent with last week's which signaled a collapse in support for the government: the Tories are up one, five points ahead of Labour, which shows the parties are closer than they appeared to be at the start of the summer.

On the Exchange a Conservative majority is 2.186/5 while no over all majority is 2.3211/8.

Bettors cool on IndyRef2 but that could change

When the SNP increased their seats total to 64 at the Scottish parliament elections in May the first minister Nicola Sturgeon said she would spend the next 100 days trying to bring Scotland out of the pandemic.

Almost three months later that period will soon come to an end and, while the pandemic is not over, Sturgeon's supporters will be eager to see what she has to say about Scottish independence in the coming weeks.

On the Exchange it is 1.68/13 that there will be no referendum before 2025 while the next shortest price is 3.711/4 on a referendum in 2024.

Sturgeon said before the May elections that winning a majority would be a mandate for a second referendum on independence - the last one was in 2014 when voters chose to remain in the United Kingdom by 55 to 45%.

The SNP fell one seat short of an outright majority but 64 was still a tremendous result. They won the popular vote and, with the pro-independence Greens winning eight seats, there is a clear majority in the parliament in favour of holding a referendum.

Sturgeon is sure to put independence back on the agenda soon, especially as she has been under fire recently about other issues. Covid-19 has been her priority this summer, as she looks at easing restrictions in Scotland, but behind the scenes her team will have been working on their independence strategy.

On the Sportsbook it's 8/11 that Scotland would vote to stay in the union and even odds that it would choose to leave.

Michael Gove 956.jpg

The first minister has previously told Boris Johnson it is a case of "when, not if" there will be a referendum. Johnson has said there is no need to revisit the subject but this weekend Michael Gove, who is in charge of making the case for the union, said:

"If it is the case that there is clearly a settled will in favour of a referendum, then one will occur."

The UK government have been encouraged by polling this year that showed support for independence falling from highs of around 58% last year.

Laschet strong favourite to be next German chancellor

The biggest election in Europe takes place next month when Angela Merkel will step down as German chancellor after 16 years and voters will elect her successor.

Merkel's heir apparent, Armin Laschet, is 1.241/4 on the Exchange so based on that you'd say it's in the bag for the Christian Democrats candidate.

Angela Merkel 956.jpg

But Laschet has been accused of bungling his response to flooding in the Rhine Valley which made Germans homeless and killed 170 people in recent weeks. He was caught on camera laughing while visiting a town which had been flooded.

Polls this week showed support for Laschet falling, albeit by only 2-3 points and he remains ahead, but it was another blow to a campaign that has failed to ignite voters' imaginations.

The CDU lead the German Green Party by around five points (26% to 21, according to a poll last week). The Greens leader Annalena Baerbock 6.411/2 follows Laschet in the next chancellor betting.

The Social Democrats' Olaf Scholz has polled ahead of Laschet when it comes to Germans' preference for next chancellor but Scholz is 15.014/1 to succeed Merkel.

That's because Germany's chancellor isn't directly elected and candidates must put together a coalition with other parties once the Bundestag members have been elected.

Baerbock could try to do a deal with the Social Democrats and Free Democratic Party if the numbers are there for a coalition. Alternatively, the Greens may go into coalition with Laschet's conservatives.

Voting takes place on 26 September and will have ramifications for politics across the continent due to Germany's crucial role in the European Union. In spite of the short odds on Laschet, the outcome is not a foregone conclusion.

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UK - Referendums: UK - Referendums (Year of Next Scottish Ind. Referendum)

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Tuesday 31 December, 11.59pm

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