Politics Betting: Brexit is helping to boost support for Scottish independence

Max Liu
07 October 2018

Football fans fly flags in support of Scottish and Catalonian independence

A new poll shows growing support for Scottish independence

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As the SNP conference begins, polling shows Scots would choose independence in the event of a no deal Brexit. Elsewhere, what Theresa and Jose have in common and Brazilians vote in key election.

"The SNP are buoyed by a new poll which shows that, as Brexit approaches, support for independence is growing, especially if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal."

The odds on Scotland choosing independence in a referendum are at evens after thousands of pro-independence supporters marched through Edinburgh. The march, which was the largest in the city since 2003, took place on the eve of the Scottish National Party's conference in Glasgow.

A referendum on Scottish independence this year is out of the question and trading at 17.5 on the Exchange. But another vote could take place in 2019 and, if so, the outcome is far from certain.

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon this weekend floated the intriguing possibility that her party could support a People's Vote on Brexit in exchange for a guarantee they could hold a subsequent referendum on Scottish independence.

New poll shows increasing support for independence

The SNP are buoyed by a new poll which shows that, as Brexit approaches, support for independence is growing, especially if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal. A no deal Brexit is 5/4 on Sportsbook and the poll indicates that, in that event, many Scots would support their country leaving the United Kingdom.

The poll, which was commissioned by the SNP, shows 50% would vote for independence. However, when asked how they would vote if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, 52% say they'd vote for independence.

Sturgeon says the polling shows support for Scottish independence at "historically high levels". Scots voted 55 to 45% to stay in the UK in 2014, but the result of the Brexit referendum in 2016 blew the debate wide open again, as 62% of Scots voted to Remain in the EU.

May and Mourinho look safe (for now)

Jose Mourinho's claim this weekend that people blame him for Brexit got me thinking about parallels between the Manchester United manager and the Prime Minister. Grey, past their best, out of touch, stuttering in Europe and undermined by members of their own teams, the pair have a lot in common.

Furthermore, at the end of a challenging week, both look like they've earned themselves a little breathing space. May was praised for her unusual Abba-themed conference entrance and speech, while Mourinho's team came from 2-0 down to beat Newcastle 3-2 in a comeback that hit 43/1 on Betfair.

The odds on May leaving Downing Street in 2018 drifted to 7/1 after her speech. But the PM is by no means out of the woods. The last time her premiership achieved a bounce was in December when she reached a last gasp agreement with the EU about, among other things, the Irish border and the Brexit divorce bill.

The goodwill didn't last long and May was soon beset again by problems at home and abroad. Likewise, Mourinho's United achieve little upturns in results before the issues arise again, which is why he's 1.910/11 to be the next Premier League manager to leave his post. For May and Mourinho, the real challenges are around the corner, with the PM set for another Brexit summit, and Mourinho's United facing Chelsea, Juventus and Manchester City in the coming weeks.

Poll indicates Brazilian election will go to second round

Today, Brazilians are voting in what commentators are saying could be the most important election in their country's history.

On the eve of the vote, a poll gave Jair Bolsonaro a 15 point lead over Fernando Haddad. Bolsonaro is 1.330/100 in what's become a lively betting event on the Exchange.

However, right-wing Bolsonaro, who's known for his hostility to black and gay people and has made the Trumpian pledge to "make Brazil great", is unlikely to win the presidency today. Projections give him around 40% of the vote and he needs a majority to secure office.

The likelihood is a second round of voting, with Bolsonaro up against the Workers' Party's Haddad, on October 28.

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.