UK Politics

UK Politics: Sacked Braverman 5/1 to succeed Sunak as Cameron returns

Former-Home Secretary Suella Braverman and PM Rishi Sunak at policing summit
Sunak sacked Braverman as Home Secretary and replaced her with James Cleverly

An extraordinary morning in Westminster sees Rishi Sunak sack Suella Braverman as home secretary and David Cameron return to goverment as foreign secretary. Will it help the Tories' election chances? Get the latest odds...

  • Labour election majority 74% chance on Exchange

  • Braverman 5/1 next Tory leader after Sunak sacks her

  • Ex-PM David Cameron is foreign secretary


Suella Braverman is 6.05/1 on the Betfair Exchange to succeed Rishi Sunak as Conservative leader after he sacked her as home secretary.

James Cleverly takes up Braverman's former role while ex-prime minister David Cameron has made an unexpected return to frontline politics as foreign secretary.

The Betfair Exchange next general election markets, meanwhile, make a Labour majority a 74% chance at 1.351/3.

The general election is 1.528/15 to take place in January to March next year but Sunak could wait before going to the country and hold it in autumn 2024.

Braverman positioned herself to succeed Sunak

Braverman's sacking came as no surprise after she was blamed for inciting far right protestors to attack police in London on Saturday.

She made headlines and enemies with a wave of divisive policies and statements during her time at the home office. Moderate Tory MPs, and opposition politicians, called for her sacking across the last week.

She retains the support of many Tory MPs on the right of the party, however, and is seen as a candidate to succeed Sunak as leader if, as the odds indicate is likely, he leads them to defeat at the next general election.

He is 1.910/11 to leave next year. Labour leader Keir Starmer is 1.192/11 to be the UK's next prime minister.

Cameron back in politics as foreign secretary

If Braverman's sacking came as no surprise the return of Cameron is a stunning development.

He served as prime minister from 2010 to 2016 before resigning in the wake of the UK's referendum on EU membership, having urged people to vote Remain.

Cameron and Johnson.jpg

He has not been an MP for six years but has accepted a peerage so that he can take up the role of foreign secretary. Cleverly had been foreign secretary and has been moved to the home office to succeed Braverman.

Cameron was a critic of all of his successors in Downing Street, including Sunak whose decision to scale back HS2 the former-PM slammed last month. Cameron is 16.015/1 to be the Conservatives' next leader.

Sunak's sacking of Braverman is an attempt by the PM to regain control of his goverment. At the same time, he may hope that bringing back Cameron will appeal to traditional Tory voters who have been put off by the extreme positions adopted by Braverman and her allies in recent months.

The Betfair politics markets are clear, however: the Tories are heading for a decisive defeat at the next general election. They are 2.6613/8 to lose 200 or more seats.


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