Next General Election Betting: 25 years after Blair landslide bettors are unconvinced by Labour

Max Liu
01 May 2022
3:00 min read

Tony and Cherie Blair on election night 1997

Tony Blair lead Labour to a 179-seat majority in 1997

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Twenty-five years after Tony Blair's landslide election victory the latest UK politics odds show that, while voters are angry at Boris Johnson, bettors remain uncertain about Labour...

"Today, the next general election betting indicates that Britain is once again at a political cross roads: no over all majority 1.9110/11 is the favourite outcome and, while polling shows that voters are sick of Boris Johnson, a Tory majority 3.711/4 is still a shorter price than a Labour majority 4.94/1."

Twenty-five years ago this week Britain stood on the brink of a new dawn as Tony Blair lead Labour to the kind of landslide general election victory that is unimaginable today.

Labour won a 179-seat majority - the biggest in their history - and brought to an end 18 years of Conservative rule.

Blair would win two more general elections, with reduced majorities, before stepping down as prime minister in 2007 when Gordon Brown took over and subsequently lead Labour to defeat in 2010.

Tony Blair and Bill Clinton.jpg

The Labour vote declined at every election from '97 until 2017 when they upset the odds under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership to deny Theresa May a majority.

Those gains were wiped out two years later, however, as Boris Johnson's Conservatives won the biggest majority achieved by any party since '97. But Johnson's 80 seat advantage (which is now 75) was still nowhere near as emphatic a victory as Blair's first.

Today, the next general election betting indicates that Britain is once again at a political cross roads: no over all majority 1.9110/11 is the favourite outcome and, while polling shows that voters are sick of Johnson, a Tory majority 3.711/4 is still a shorter price than a Labour majority 4.94/1.

The battle at the next election is likely to be about which party emerges as the largest. There the betting is tighter but the Tories are still odds-on to win the most seats at 1.84/5 with Labour 2.186/5.

That said, Labour are in their strongest position for three years and Johnson's deepening problems, with the partygate scandal and cost of living crisis, have lead bettors to back him into around evens to leave Downing Street this year.

Keir Starmer Labour 956.jpg

Labour leader Keir Starmer is 7.613/2 to be Britain's next prime minister with Liz Truss, the favourite to succeed Johnson as Tory leader, the marginal favourite at 7.413/2 for next PM. That's down to the view that Johnson will not lead the Conservatives into the next election so there will be a change of prime minister before there's a change of government.

If so, the next Conservative leader will try to convince the electorate that the Tories have moved on from the scandals of the past three years. They will also warn voters about the age-old dangers associated with Labour governments (can't be trusted with the economy, soft on crime and immigration etc).

A Labour leader needs to offer a clear vision if they're to win an election. Ed Miliband thought disillusionment with Tory austerity would help him squeak into Downing Street in 2015. But voters decided he was weak and gave David Cameron, who liked to proclaim himself 'the heir to Blair', a slim majority instead.

Starmer has made powerful attacks on Johnson during the partygate scandal and he has worked hard to reconnect with the constituencies that abandoned Labour in 2019. But he has plenty of work to do if he's to take Labour back to power for the first time since 2010.

It's a far cry from 1997 and the thumping majority with which Blair entered Downing Street to the tune of Things Can Only Get Better a quarter of a century ago.