UK By-Elections Betting: Odds suggest Tories will lose in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton

Max Liu
19 May 2022
3:00 min read

Johnson's Tories are drifting in the by-election betting

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There will be two by-elections in Conservative-held constituencies on 23 June and the latest betting says they are going to lose both of them...

"Labour are 1.141/7 to take Wakefield while the Liberal Democrats are 1.4740/85 to win in Tiverton and Honiton."

Boris Johnson and the Conservatives are in for a tough night at opposite ends of England on 23 June according to the latest UK by-election betting on the Exchange.

There will be by-elections in Wakefield, Yorkshire and in Tiverton and Honiton, Devon - seats currently held by the Tories - and in both Johnson's party looks set to lose.

Labour are 1.141/7 to take Wakefield while the Liberal Democrats are 1.4740/85 to win in Tiverton and Honiton.

Defeat in either would be a blow to Johnson who is 3.55 to leave office this year while losing in both would increase concern in Tory ranks that they are heading for defeat at the next general election.

Tories struggling in north and south

The by-election in Wakefield came about after former MP Imran Ahmad Khan resigned after he was convicted of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy.

In 2019, the Tories had won the west Yorkshire constituency from Labour with a majority of more than 3,000 votes. It was one of the so-called red wall seats that were key to Johnson winning a majority in parliament.

It was in parliament that Neil Parish admitting to watching porn and had to resign as Conservative MP for Tiverton and Honiton.

Parish, who had represented the constituency since 2010, was returned with a majority of more than 24,000 at the last election. He said he hasn't ruled out running as an independent candidate at the by-election.

The betting shows that the Lib Dems could overturn the Tories' big majority and take it this time.

It's a closer race than Wakfield, with the Tories 2.962/1 to cling on in Devon, but if the market is correct and the Lib Dems win, the result will send shockwaves through English politics.

The Tories lost nearly 500 council seats at local elections earlier this month and Johnson has spent 2022 underfire over everything from partygate to the cost of living crisis.

No over all majority 1.845/6 is the favourite outcome at the next general election - a staggering state of affairs considering the Conservatives won an 80-seat majority two-and-a-half years ago - while a Tory majority is out to 4.1 and a Labour majority in to 4.77/2.

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