Tiverton and Honiton By-Election: Tory v Lib Dem race tightens

Max Liu
21 June 2022
3:00 min read

The outcome of the by-election could have implications for Boris Johnson's premiership

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

The Liberal Democrats are still odds-on to win the crucial Tiverton and Honiton by-election on Thursday but the Conservatives have shortened in the betting...

Tuesday odds snapshot: Liberal Democrats 1.384/11; Conservatives 3.55/2 to win the Tiverton and Honiton by-election

With two days to go before voters go to the polls in Tiverton and Honiton, the race to win the by-election is tightening, according to the betting.

The Liberal Democrats are still odds-on to win but the Conservatives are a shorter price than they were last week when they drifted to 4.47/2.

Tuesday odds snapshot: Liberal Democrats 1.384/11; Conservatives 3.55/2

It was always going to be a tall order for the Lib Dems to capture a Devon seat that has been blue since its inception.

At the last general election in 2019, the Conservatives held it with a 23,000 vote majority.

To their credit, Ed Davey's party have become complacent, saying that internal polling showed they were close behind the Tories, even as the odds on the Exchange pointed to a Lib Dem victory.

If they are going to pull off a win that would send shockwaves through British politics far beyond the south west of England, they are going to throw everything at it until polling day.

The betting indicates that some punters are having their doubts about the Lib Dems.

On the same day, there is also a by-election happening in Wakefield where Labour are a shoo-in to take the seat back from the Tories.

Defeat would pile pressure on Johnson

In Tiverton and Honiton, the by-election is taking place following the resignation of Neil Parish who admitted to looking at porn in the House of Commons.

That incident, as well as Partygate and the rising cost of living crisis, is expected to lead some traditional Tory voters to abandon the party on Thursday.

At the same time, some Labour supporters will lend their votes to the Lib Dems in the hopes of taking the seat from the Conservatives and plunging Boris Johnson's leadership into a fresh crisis.

While he is heavy odds-on to still be the party's leader in September, when their conference takes place, he is 2.526/4 to lead them into the next general election (scheduled for May 2024).

The recent confidence vote, which saw 148 Tory MPs vote against the prime minister, confirmed that many think their party would have a better chance of winning re-election under a different leader.