Scottish Independence Odds: Bettors back no referendum before 2025

  • Max Liu
  • 4:00 min read
Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon
Sturgeon's SNP won a record 64 seats

The latest odds on Scottish independence show bettors don't expect a referendum before 2025 says Max Liu while Andy Burnham has attracted more support in the next Labour leader betting...

"A 2022 referendum is the next most likely option at 4.3100/30. Sturgeon wants to hold a referendum after the Covid-19 pandemic is over. Recent polls have showed a decline in support for independence.

"A 2023 referendum is 4.77/2 on the Exchange while 2024 is 6.411/2."

The odds on the Betfair Exchange show that bettors do not expect there to be a referendum on Scottish independence in the next four years.

The SNP will push ahead with plans to hold a referendum, after they won 64 seats in this week's Scottish parliament election, but no referendum before 2025 is the odds-on favourite at 1.75/7.

A 2022 referendum is the next most likely option at 4.3100/30. Sturgeon wants to hold a referendum after the Covid-19 pandemic is over. Recent polls showed a decline in support for independence and that may also mean she's tempted to wait.

A 2023 referendum is 4.77/2 on the Exchange while 2024 is 6.411/2.

Independence a 50/50 chance

The SNP failed to win the 65 seats they needed for an overall majority but, with the Greens winning eight seats, there is now a majority of MSPs who are in favour of another referendum and Sturgeon can get a referendum bill through the Holyrood parliament.

On the Sportsbook you can get even odds on Scots voting for independence at the next referendum - whenever it takes place - and 8/11 on staying in the union.

Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon.jpg

On Friday Boris Johnson said a referendum would be "irresponsible and reckless" but today he struck a more note, saying Westminster and Holyrood should work together. Johnson knows that denying Scotland's will could help to increase support for independence.

Sturgeon said there was now "no democratic justification" for the Westminster government to deny Scotland a referendum and argued that to do so would put the UK government at odds with the will of the Scottish people.

Sturgeon and Johnson look like they're on a collision course. It is set to cause a constitutional crisis that could be settled in the courts.

Burnham backed for next Labour leader after Starmer sacks Rayner

Andy Burnham is the favourite to be the next Labour leader after he was re-elected as Mayor of Greater Manchester with 67% of the vote. He is 4.47/2 on the Exchange as the fall out from Thursday's election results continues within Labour.

Keir Starmer sacked deputy leader Angela Rayner as party chair on Saturday night, sparking criticism from across the party, including from Burnham:

Apart from anything else, the timing of Rayner's sacking was strange. Burnham's impressive victory was one of several good results for Labour on Saturday following their catastrophic defeat in the Hartlepool by-election as well as other failures in the north east and elsewhere.

But there was good news for Labour in the north west and south west of England on Saturday and it was surprising that Starmer chose to ignite more rancour in his party instead of playing up their successes.

Sadiq Khan was re-elected as Mayor of London but with a less emphatic victory than expected, taking 55% of the popular vote. Only 42% of voters turned out in London which has become a Labour stronghold in the past decade. He's 12.011/1 to be next Labour leader.

Rayner is a popular figure in Labour and is 6.25/1 - a shorter price than she was on Friday - to be the next leader herself.

Starmer is expected to reshuffle his top team today with Annelise Dodds (she's the shadow chancellor ICYMI) in line for a demotion.

Following Thursday's results the Conservatives are 2.26/5 to win a majority at the next general election. That's now the favourite outcome where no over all majority 2.3411/8 had long been backed.

The next general election is scheduled for 2024 1.715/7 - according to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act - but , with Labour in disarray, the chances of a 2023 election are being talked up and appeal to me at 4.57/2.

UK - Referendums: UK - Referendums (Year of Next Scottish Ind. Referendum)

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Tuesday 31 December, 11.59pm

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