Polling shows record numbers support Scottish independence but 'no referendum in the next five years' is still odds-on, reports Max Liu...
"No referendum before 2025 is 10/111.9 on the Exchange in part because Boris Johnson has insisted he will not allow it to happen."
Scotland is evens to vote for independence if there's another referendum after a poll showed record support for leaving the union.
A clear majority would vote for independence, according to the poll by Ipsos Mori. It found 58% of those who said they were likely to vote in an independence referendum would vote Yes, while 42% would side with No.
The poll also found that almost two-thirds think the UK government should allow an independence referendum to be held within the next five years if the SNP win a majority of seats in next May's Holyrood election. Most polling puts the party on course to do that.
No referendum before 2025 is 10/111.9 on the Exchange, however, in part because Boris Johnson has insisted he will not allow it to happen. He insists that the 2014 referendum, when Scots voted 55 to 45% to reject independence, settled the matter for a generation.
When the new polling is broken down by age the results are even more alarming for supporters of the union. Among younger voters there is the most support for independence and it is only among those aged 65 plus that the majority back staying in the union.
Latest Scottish independence support polling by age:? Ross Colquhoun (@rosscolquhoun) October 14, 2020
Source: Ipsos Mori, 2-9 October.
The poll also showed 76% are dissatisfied with the way Johnson is doing his job as prime minister, with just 19% satisfied.
First minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon has consistently argued that Brexit means Scots should get the chance to vote again on their future. Scotland voted 62% for Remain in the UK's in-out referendum of 2016.
Johnson's government, which is made up of Brexiteers and appears to be pursuing a hard Brexit, was never likely to go down well in Scotland.
Northern Ireland, meanwhile, is the 1/3 favourite in the betting without Scotland on the next UK country or region to hold a referendum on independence.