Politics Odds: Conservative lead grows as Cummings attacks Johnson

  • Max Liu
  • 4:00 min read
Former government adviser Dominic Cummings
Dominic Cummings will appear at a Commons select committee on Wednesday

Get the latest UK politics odds as Dominic Cummings makes more allegations against Boris Johnson's government and a German election betting update says Max Liu...

The next general election is scheduled for 2024 1.564/7. If his party hold on to their lead in the polls, however, Boris Johnson may be tempted to call an election earlier and 2023 is 3.185/40.

The Conservatives are odds-on on the Exchange to win a majority at the next general election after this weekend's YouGov poll showed them extending their lead over Labour to 18 points.

A hung parliament is out to 2.427/5 as bettors are increasingly convinced that the Tories can follow up their 2019 success by winning a majority at the next election.

It's scheduled to take place in 2024 and is 1.564/7. Boris Johnson is 1.855/6 to continue as Conservative leader to 2024 or beyond.

If his party hold on to their lead in the polls, Johnson may be tempted to call an election earlier and 2023 is 3.185/40.

Labour are in disarray, following a dramatic swing to the Tories at the Hartlepool by-election, and there are two more by-elections on the horizon that will test Keir Starmer's leadership.

The Conservatives are 1.538/15 to win in Batley and Spen, which has been Labour since 1997, and heavy odds-on to hold Chesham and Amersham. Read analysis of both contests.

Cummings hits out at government ahead of committee appearance

With the Labour leadership offering little opposition, Johnson's former-adviser Dominic Cummings appears to be the government's biggest problem at the moment. Exactly a year ago, Johnson was coming under fire for refusing to sack Cummings after his infamous trip to Barnard Castle.

Last night Cummings, who left Downing Street in November, claimed that ministers had backed a policy of "herd immunity" at the beginning of the pandemic then lied about having done so.

On Wednesday Cummings is due to appear at a joint Commons select committee inquiry into the government's handling of the pandemic. The government is bracing itself as Cummings looks set to produce incriminating texts, emails and WhatsApp messages detailing what he sees as serial incompetence in handling the response to Covid-19 last year.

The question is, will it cut through and damage the government's reputation with voters? This week's moves on the Exchange, combined with the latest polling, suggest Cummings will need to produce something extraordinary for it to have a real impact.

Greens shorten in German election betting

Three months from now Germans will vote in a federal election that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as their chancellor.

It is the biggest election that will take place in Europe this year and will be momentous as Merkel steps down from 16 years in power.

Angela Merkel 956.jpg

Her party, the Christian Democrats, have chosen Armin Laschet as their candidate and he is 1.625/8 on the Exchange to be chancellor.

Laschet is the continuity candidate and that could be both a strength and weakness at an election where some voters may be ready for a break with the status quo - as indicated by polling that shows the Green party drawing level with the CDU at around 25%.

Green candidate Annalena Baerbock is in to 3.3512/5 to be next chancellor as she attracts far more support than Olaf Scholz 11.010/1 of the Social Democrats (the German equivalent of the UK's Labour Party) who are trailing in the polls at around 15%.

The betting indicates that Laschet should consolidate his support as we get closer to election day on 26 September, but it's going to be a fascinating race and the identity of Germany's next chancellor is no foregone conclusion.

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