The key headlines and UK politics markets moves
- Sunak to be PM and appeals to party for unity
- Market says no election until 2024
- Labour majority is favourite outcome
Johnson favourite to succeed Sunak
Rishi Sunak is 3/1 on the Betfair Exchange to be replaced as Conservative leader next year and Boris Johnson is the favourite to succeed him.
The price on a Sunak exit in 2022 - which would give the UK its third change of prime minister this year - is 19.5.
Johnson pulled out of the race to succeed Liz Truss on Sunday but it is unlikely that he has given up on his dream of returning to office. Bettors think he is best-placed to take over from Sunak whenever he leaves number 10 Downing Street.
The uber-Johnsonsite Nadine Dorries has already criticised Sunak on social media indicating that the new Tory leader, who will become prime minister today, faces a huge task if he is to unite his party.
Sunak is 2.466/4 to leave as Conservative leader in 2024 - the year when the next general election is scheduled to take place - and, with the Conservatives trailing Labour in the polls and on Betfair, that may be a sound bet.
There has been a small drift on the Labour majority at the next election and it is now the same price as no overall majority at 2.3611/8.
A Conservative majority is 6.05/1 and Labour are odds-on to win the most seats.
All the markets indicate that Sunak will need to work wonders between now and May 2024 if the Tories are to avoid wipeout at the next general election.
Sunak faces huge challenge at election
A Labour majority at the next election is the favourite outcome on the Betfair Exchange after Rishi Sunak became the new leader of the Conservative Party.
He will be confirmed as prime minister after he meets King Charles this week.
The next election is 1.331/3 to take place in 2024 with Sunak likely to be bat away challenges to his legtimacy as PM and refuse calls to go to the country.
Labour are 2.3211/8 to win a majority with no over all majority 2.3611/8 and the Conservative majority 6.05/1.
The good news for Sunak is that Labour's odds have drifted since Liz Truss announced her decision to resign as PM.
The bad news is that the Tories continue to trail Labour by as much as 30 points in some polling.
In a private address to Conservative MPs today Sunak called for party unity and promised a cabinet of all the talents. His appointments are expected to be announced over the next few days.
Rishi Sunak to be next PM
Rishi Sunak will be the next prime minister after Penny Mordaunt withdrew from the Conservative leadership contest.
The former-chancellor had been the firm favourite on the Betfair Exchange, shortening to heavy odds-on after Boris Johnson withdrew from the leadership contest on Sunday.
Mordaunt stayed in the leadership contest until minutes before the 2pm deadline for nominations.
She urged her colleagues and the party as a whole to get behind Sunak.
Labour are the favourites to win the next general election - which is 1.321/3 to be in 2024 - but the odds on them winning a majority have drifted to 2.35/4.
A Conservative majority is 6.25/1 and no over all majority is 2.47/5.
Sunak heavy odds-on with 30 mins to go
Rishi Sunak was 1.031/33 in the Betfair Exchange next Conservative leader market with 30 minutes to go before the 2pm deadline for nominations.
Penny Mordaunt was 28.027/1 as she tried to get 100 MPs to support her candidacy.
If Mordaunt gets the 100 backers, Conservative party members will choose between her and Sunak.
If she falls short, Sunak will become leader today and prime minister this week.
The former-chancellor of the exchequer Sunak is the firm favourite to become Britain's next prime minister.
Mordaunt's price shortens after claim
Penny Mordaunt shortened to 22.021/1 on the Betfair Exchange next Conservative leader market after her campaign team claimed she had the backing of 90 MPs - three times as many as the 30 who have backed her publicly.
That would still leave her 10 short of the number she needs by 2pm to stop Rishi Sunak becoming leader today.
MPs need 100 to go into a final round of voting among party members and at the moment Sunak 1.031/33 is the only one who has the support.
It is 5.04/1 that two candidates will receive 100+ nominations from Conservative MPs.
Mordaunt out to 43/1
Penny Mordaunt drifted to 44.043/1 on the Betfair Exchange Next Conservative Leader market as Tory MPs threw their support behind Rishi Sunak 1.021/50.
The former-chancellor has the support of more than 160 Conservative MPs - well above the threshold required to make a potential final round of voting among party members.
Mordaunt's support is said to be languishing in the mid-50s and she looks unlikely to reach the 100 needed to force a run-off against Sunak. On the Betfair Exchange it is 1.111/9 that only one candidate (Sunak) will get the 100.
If she fails to get the necessary support, Sunak will automatically become Conservative leader and prime minister.
Mordaunt was hoping to pick up support from MPs who wanted to stop Sunak after Boris Johnson pulled out of the contest yesterday. So far, that has not happened and, with the 2pm deadline for nominations looming, it is starting to look doubtful that the contest will go to a second round.
Sunak shortens overnight to 1.02
Rishi Sunak is in to his shortest odds yet in the betting for Next Tory Leader and Next PM at 1.021/50 in both markets.
Main opponent Boris Johnson pulled out on Sunday evening to leave Penny Mordaunt as the only rival.
But Mordaunt is friendless in the morning betting with doubts about the MP for Portsmouth North getting the 100 nominations she needs to figure in the leadership contest.
Sunak 1.05 for No.10 as Boris pulls out
Rishi Sunak odds to be next Tory leader have collapsed after Boris Johnson pulled out of the race this evening.
The former chancellor is just 1.041/25 in the betting with the path seemingly clear.
Having once been backed at 1.991/1 Johnson is now 340.0339/1 in the Betfair Exchange market.
Penny Mordaunt is Sunak's only opponent as it stands. She can be backed at 22.021/1.
Market swings back towards Sunak with Johnson's true support questioned
Rishi Sunak is available to back at just 1.222/9 to be the next Tory leader after sustained market support on Sunday afternoon.
With over £4.5m traded in the Next Prime Minister market alone, Sunak's odds have shortened from around 1.42/5 at Sunday lunchtime to his current odds, which aren't too far from the lowest price (1.171/6) he's been matched at in the market
We still have no official confirmation that Boris Johnson will bid to become the next Tory leader and perhaps this is the reason that he's drifted to 6.611/2 late on Sunday afternoon.
There remain questions as to the true level of support the former PM has received with the number of MPs who have publicly backed him being considerably lower than the 100 nominatins required by 2pm on Monday to enter the ballot.
Johnson has also drifted alarmingly in the Will Boris Johnson receive 100+ nominations market, with the Yes option being available to back at 2.68/5 from a low of 1.21/5 on Saturday.
Money for Johnson as Rees-Mogg says he'll stand for Tory leadership
Boris Johnson has been backed in from 5.85/1 to 4.03/1 in the last few hours after Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg says the former PM "will clearly stand" to be the next Tory leader.
Johnson is reported to have held private talks with market favourite Rishi Sunak on Saturday night but it now appears that both men will battle it out to be the next Prime Minister with Sunak confirmig on Sunday morning that he will run.
In a Tweet, Sunak said, "I want to fix our economy, unite our Party and deliver for our country."
While Johnson has so far only had around 55 of his fellow MPs confirming they will back his campaign, Sunak has well over 130 supporting him, including Home Secretary Grant Shapps who said on Sunday morning, "We need someone who can provide stability and proven economic competence in these challenging times."
However, Sunak has drifted in the market in the last few hours, now being available to back at 1.384/11 to be the next Tory Leader. Penny Mordaunt can be backed at 36.035/1.
Sunak well ahead if PM race
Rishi Sunak's odds to be the next Tory leader shortened overnight after it emerged he and main market rival Boris Johnson held private talks on Saturday night in relation to the leadership contest.
Details of what was discussed have not been made public but it is understood that Sunak is well ahead when it comes to the backing of his fellow MPs.
The BBC understands that Sunak has the support of at least 128 MPs, and his odds to become Prime Minister this week are now trading at around the 1.251/4 mark on the Betfair Exchange.
Johnson is reported to have just 53 supporters and can be backed at 5.85/1, while Penny Mordaunt has 23 and is the outsider of the trio at 30.029/1.
Sunak's odds shorten again
Rishi Sunak will almost certainly end the day as the strong favourite to be the next Prime Minister as the late Saturday afternoon money came for the former Chancellor.
Sunak's odds drifted out to 1.548/15 mid afternoon with the BBC reporting that Borish Johnson's camp was claiming that he had received the 100+ backers needed to enter Monday's ballot.
This caused Johnson's odds to halve, from 6.411/2 into 3.211/5 at around 3:30pm on Saturday afternoon.
But there have been calls from Sunak's backers for Johnson's camp to publish the names of his supporters, amid scepticism among some MPs.
Approximately half of the 357 Tory MPs have gone public with the candidate they are supporting, with around 114 publicly supporting Sunak, 50 supporting Johnson, and 22 supporting the only candidate so far to officially launch a bid, Penny Mordaunt.
With the Johnson numbers unconfirmed, he has drifted out again to 4.216/5 to be the next Tory leader, while Sunak has shortened to 1.364/11.
Johnson can still be backed at 1.51/2 to publicly receive the 100+ nominations required that will enable him to contend the Tory leadership.
Support comes back in for Boris
Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson is back into 3.211/5 to be the next Tory leader with the BBC reporting that he has the 100+ backers he needs to be in Monday's ballot.
Having drifted out to 6.411/2 around Saturday lunchtime, Johnson is now half that price with Rishi Sunak returning to his earlier odds of just over 1.51/2.
It's now looking like the Tory leadership contest will be a two-man race with the big drift on Penny Mordaunt continuing throughout Saturday.
Reports suggest that Mordaunt - available to back at 36.035/1 - may not even get the support of 100+ MPs to enter the ballot meaning that either Sunak or Johnson will be Prime Minister at some point next week.
Sunak into 1/3 on Betfair Exchange
Rishi Sunak has shortened dramatically in the last 45 minutes to become the Next Tory Leader amid reports that he will shortly officially announce his candidacy.
Sunak is the first candidate to receive the backing of 100+ of his fellow MPs and is now trading at just 1.321/3 on the Betfair Exchange.
Borish Johnson has drifted to 5.04/1 with Penny Mordaunt out to 30.029/1
Over £3.5m traded in Tory Leader/PM markets
Nearly £3m has now been traded in the Next Prime Minister market while over £500k has been traded in the Next Conservative Leader market.
For clarity, both markets are effectively the same given that there won't be a General Election before a new Tory leader is announced, meaning the winner of the Next Conservative Leader market will also become the next Prime Minister.
Rishi Sunak's odds continue to shorten and he has moved from 1.645/8 early on Saturday morning to his current odds of 1.574/7. Boris Johnson is out to 3.259/4 with Penny Mordaunt continuing to drift, now available at 20.019/1.
Johnson can be backed at 1.42/5 to receive the 100 nominations he requires by Monday afternoon to get in the ballot, while the Betfair Exchange believes that only two candidates will receive the 100+ nominations required.
How many candidates will receive 100+ nominations?
Two - 1.251/4
One - 4.03/1
Three - 12.011/1
None - 250.0249/1
Mordaunt a big drifter
Rishi Sunak remains a solid 1.645/8 favourite to become the next Tory leader but the only candidate to officially launch a bid - Penny Mordaunt - has been a significant drifter overnight.
Mordaunt, who was matched at around 6.611/2 at the time of her bid becoming official, is now out to 18.017/1 as the market heads towards the contest being a two-man battle.
Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson is flying home to the UK from his Caribbean holiday this morning and is expected to run to be the next Tory leader. He is currently available to back at 3.185/40.
Sunak was tight-lipped as he left his London home this morning but his supporters say that he has already passed the 100 Tory MPs needed (to support his bid) by 14:00 on Monday to get on the ballot.
According to the BBC, Johnson has around 45 MPs so far pledging their support while Mordaunt has just over 20.
As we head into Friday night in the UK, Rishi Sunak has tightened at the top of the next Tory leader betting.
At the time of writing the former chancellor of the exchequer is 1.645/8 to win the contest. The endorsement of Sajid Javid potentially significant to his bid.
Boris Johnson, who at one point today touched odds-on at 1.991/1, has been soft in the betting in the last few hours and can be backed at 3.65.
Penny Mordaunt, who this afternoon announced she would be running as a candidate, is the outsider of the trio at 8.07/1.
Stay tuned to the latest odds at this link.
Odds Update from Key Betfair Markets
Next Tory Leader: Sunak 1.814/5, Johnson 3.185/40, Mordaunt 8.07/1
Next General Election Most Seats: Lab 1.392/5, Cons 3.39/4, Lib Dem 100.099/1
Listen to our Politics...Only Bettor podcast now!
Get the views of our expert panel in a special edition of Politics Only Bettor podcast, rating the runners and riders for next leader of the Conservative party
Mordaunt becomes first candidate to launch bid
Penny Mordaunt is 6.611/2 on the Betfair Exchange to be the next Conservative leader after she became the first candidate to annouce she was standing in the contest.
She will be the outsider in the race with the market indicating Rishi Sunak 1.875/6, who went odds-on this afternoon, and Boris Johnson 3.052/1 will battle it out for the job.
Mordaunt stood in the previous Conservative leadership contest and was knocked out in the penultimate round.
Sunak odds-on as Johnson drifts
Rishi Sunak shortened to odds-on in the Next Conservative leader market on the Betfair Exchange.
There has been a small drift on Boris Johnson's price.
Sunak is in to 1.910/11 while Johnson is out to 2.6413/8.
The moves came as polling from Opinium showed the public would be more likely to vote for Sunak as Tory leader than Johnson.
Of course, it's Tory party members - not the general public - who will choose the next Conservative leader and prime minister.
But if the idea is that Johnson would be the leader most likely to help them win the next election the poll is food for thought.
The other factor in the drift on Johnson this afternoon could be rumours that evidence from the ongoing investigation into partygate is extremely damning about the former-PM:
The latest from the Betfair traders
We are also betting on next Tory leader on the Betfair Sportsbook, where the money has been coming for Boris Johnson today.
Betfair Trader Dylan Orr said: "All one way traffic since this morning with Boris now into 11/10 from 15/8 this morning, let's not forget he was available at 12/1 yesterday. Mr Sunak continues to drift out but remains at the top of the market at Evens although with the volume of bets for Boris it is likely only a matter of time before Boris heads the market. Mrs Mordaunt is penniless (pennyless) in the market pardon the pun. Mordaunt was 11/5 at a stage yesterday now out to 15/2."
Bettors convinced it's Johnson v Sunak
Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are neck and neck in the Next Conservative Leader market on the Betfair Exchange.
Bettors think the pair, who have been enemies since Sunak's resignation as chancellor precipitated the end of Johnson's premiership, will compete to succeed Liz Truss.
Sunak 2.111/10 is the marginal favourite with Johnson 2.186/5.
Penny Mordaunt comes next in the betting but her odds of 11.010/1 show that punters are expecting it to come down to Johnson v Sunak.
If that's the case then the Tory party is set to witness a ferocious battle for its soul over the next week.
Johnson backed as Wallace rules himself out
Boris Johnson was backed into favouritism in the Betfair Exchange next Conservative Leader market.
There were huge moves in the market on Friday with bettors throwing their support behind Johnson. He has since drifted slightly and, along with Rishi Sunak, is hovering around even odds, with events once again moving rapidly in the market.
Meanwhile, the defence secretary Ben Wallace has ruled himself out of standing and said he was "leaning towards" backing Johnson in the leadership contest.
Will Boris get the 100 votes he needs?
Betfair have opened a new market on Boris getting the 100+ nominations he needs to run for next Tory leader - every candidate must achieve a minimum of 100 nominations to proceed to the ballot.
Interestingly, given his prominent position in the betting, Johnson has been backed at odds-against to get 100+.
It's a new market and prices are moving fast but it's definitely one to keep your eye on.
Latest Next Tory Leader Betting: Sunak 1.834/5, Johnson 3.259/4, Mordaunt 8.415/2
Sunak the right price according to our expert
Read the latest analysis from poltical betting expert Paul Krishnamurty in his Betting.Betfair entry here.
Summing up each candidate's chances, Paul writes of Boris Johnson: "A Johnson candidacy is going to be met with derision, outrage, and the possibility of further scandals. There is already a parliamentary investigation due to report on his breach of the Ministerial Code. Expect an enormous row if, as seems quite likely, that process is neutered. Another scandal is doing the rounds."
Latest Betting: Sunak 1.875/6, Johnson 3.211/5, Mordaunt 8.27/1
More than half of bets today for Johnson
More than half of the bets today on the Betfair Exchange Next Conservative Leader Market have been for Boris Johnson.
Johnson, who left office just six weeks ago, is likely to stand in the leadership contest and 57% of bets since midnight have been for him.
He is 3.052/1 in the market where Rishi Sunak 1.9210/11 is the favourite.
Sunak was Johnson's chancellor for two-and-a-half years but the pair are now enemies, with Johnson's supporters accusing Sunak of leading a coup against the then PM this summer.
Tory MPs need the backing of 100 MPs to stand in the leadership election and the first round of voting takes place on Monday. The winner is set to be announced next Friday (28 October).
Is Boris really electoral dynamite?
Boris Johnson's supporters in parliament have been out in force this morning but is the former PM really the election-winning monster they believe him to be?
The Twitter thread below may make for sobering reading and could give Boris backers an element of doubt.
Latest betting: Sunak1.9520/21, Johnson 3.1511/5, Mordaunt 6.611/2
Boris on the march in the betting
Boris Johnson's odds have shortened significantly overnight in the battle to be next leader of the Conservative party.
From a high of 100.099/1 the former prime minister is currently 3.185/40 to replace Liz Truss and make a sensational return to No.10.
Rishi Sunak remains the favourite at 1.910/11 so the main victim of the Boris move is Penny Mordaunt, who is now 8.07/1 to win what looks a three-horse race.
Latest Odds at 9:29am on Friday
Betfair Exchange: Next Conservative leader
Boris Johnson 3.185/40
Penny Mordaunt 8.07/1
Ben Wallace 46.045/1
A final final look at the market
Boris Johnson is the new second favourite to be named next Tory leader after appearing to secure significant backing among Conservative MPs. Rishi Sunak remains favourite but Boris has pushed Penny Mordaunt into a distant third place this evening.
As of 21:45 Thursday night, Sunak is 1.910/11, Johnson 3.711/4, Mordaunt 6.86/1.
A final look at the market
Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt have shortened in the betting since our last look, while Boris' odds have inched up to make him the real outsider in the betting.
At the time of writing Sunak sits at 1.824/5, Mordaunt 3.613/5 and Johnson 9.08/1.
Will it turn out to be a two-horse race or does Boris have a genuine crack at returning to no.10? We'll be back tomorrow to find out!
A three-horse race now?
Three hours since Truss resigned and the Betfair Exchange market has settled on three likely candidates in the betting for next leader of the Conservative Party.
Heading the field is former chancellor Rishi Sunak, runner-up to Truss, at 1.9110/11.
Penny Mordaunt, an early favourite last time out, is next in the betting at 3.9.
Rounding out the trio is Boris Johnson, who has reportedly been keen on a return to no.10 ever since he left, at 7.06/1.
The next shortest in the betting is Ben Wallace at 29.028/1.
Boris really could be planning a return
Seems the move on Boris is justified...
The former PM is 6.05/1 third favourite to be named as next Tory leader. It may seem unbelievable but what really is unbelievable in UK politics these days?!
The odds at 15:30
Here are the latest odds in the Next Tory Leader betting.
Rishi Sunak - 1.9620/21
Penny Mordaunt - 3.55/2
Boris Johnson - 8.07/1
Ben Wallace - 24.023/1
Kemi Badenoch - 40.039/1
Jeremy Hunt - 55.054/1
Suella Braverman - 100.099/1
The runners and riders for next Tory leader
It looks a four-way battle to be next Tory leader according to the early odds on the Betfair Exchange.
ReadMax Liu's early views on the quartet - headed by Rishi Sunak but also including disgraced former leader Boris Johnson.
Truss goes, Sunak odds-on to be next Tory leader
Liz Truss has resigned as leader of the Tories following a chaotic month-and-a-half in charge, a stint makes her term the shortest ever in the party's history.
Early betting on the Betfair Exchange makes Rishi Sunak the odds-on favourite to be next Conservative Leader after Truss' resignation following a meeting with Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee, today.
In a fast moving betting heat ex-chancellor Sunak is 1.84/5 to take over from Truss with Penny Mordaunt next in the betting at 3.613/5. Every other candidate is double figure odds with only Ben Wallace (12.011/1) looking like a potential runner. Disgraced former PM Boris Johnson is 27.026/1 while Jeremy Hunt (80.079/1) has ruled himself out of the running.
We will know who the winner is soon - Truss announced her replacement will be in no.10 within a week.
Bettors think Truss exit imminent
The odds on Liz Truss stepping down as Conservative leader this year tumbled to 1.111/9 - the shortest price yet on the Betfair Exchange - amid reports that Graham Brady, the chairman of the influential 1922 committee of Tory back benchers - was meeting her in Downing Street.
Truss looks increasingly embattled in number 10, after a tumultuous 24 hours that was chaotic even by recent standards saw Suella Braverman depart as Home Secretary, with Grant Shapps replacing her.
There were rumours of Tory MPs man-handling each other during a vote on fracking and reports that the party's chief whip resigned then unresigned.
Today, several Conservative MPs called for Truss to step down as Tory leader.
Brady's arrival at number 10 is an ominous sign for the PM and often the sign that a leader will depart soon. In July, Brady informed Boris Johnson that he had to go.
One Tory MP today claimed Brady had received a mountain of letters expressing no confidence in Truss's leadership.
Truss is 18.5 to lead the Conservatives into the next general election.
Truss to go in 2022 hits shortest odds yet
The odds on Liz Truss stepping down as Conservative leader this year shortened to their lowest price yet after an evening of chaos in Westminster.
The prime minister is 1.241/4 on the Betfair Exchange to be gone in 2022 as she tries to cling on in Downing Street.
It was an incredible day at Westminster, with many season commentators saying they had seen nothing like it.
Suella Braverman departed as Home Secretary, with Grant Shapps replacing her.
There were rumours of Tory MPs man-handling each other during a vote on fracking and reports that the party's chief whip resigned then unresigned.
Whatever was true and what was mere rumour, it all added up to a picture of instability and chaos, with the government incapable of governing and the Truss premiership teetering on the brink just a month-and-a-half after she became PM.
Some MPs have called for a general election but 2024 remains the favourite on Betfair at 1.51/2.
That's when the next election is scheduled to take place and, with Labour 1.910/11 to win a majority, the Conservatives are unlikely to call one.
That said, the odds an election this year have shortened to 10.09/1 while an election in 2023 is 3.412/5.
Braverman out, Truss to follow?
Liz Truss is in to 1.558/15 to leave No.10 this year after Suella Braverman was reported to to have departed as home secretary.
The Guardian, who broke the exclusive story, reported the news as a 'massive blow to the prime minister's authority' following the sacking of Kwasi Kwarteng a few days ago.
Truss' odds to go this year have plummeted from near evens this morning to the current 1.558/15 with speculation rife that she is not truly in charge at no.10.
Sunak for PM?
Rishi Sunak is the favourite to be the next prime minister amid reports that Liz Truss could step down this week.
Truss is 1.664/6 to be replaced as Conservative leader this year - a marginally longer price than yesterday afternoon - and there is a growing consensus that her premiership is effectively over.
The new chancellor Jeremy Hunt yesterday reversed much of his predcessor Kwasi Kwarteng's controversial mini-budget, leaving Truss's economic plan in tatters.
Hunt appears to be in charge in Downing Street and he is 5.79/2 to become the next Conservative leader.
There are reports today, however, that Sunak is being lined-up as next leader and that Hunt would be his chancellor.
Penny Mordaunt, who is also a candidate for next leader at 5.39/2, could be made foreign secretary in a Sunak government.
Odds on imminent Truss exit fall again
The price on Liz Truss being replaced as Conservative leader this year shortened again after she failed to appear in the House of Commons to answer an urgent question about the government's mini-budget reversal.
Truss to leave in 2022 shortened to 1.392/5 on the Betfair Exchange.
Penny Mordaunt, standing in the for prime minister, said Truss was 'detained on urgent business' fuelling speculation that her reign as in 10 Downing Street will end imminently.
Odds on Truss this year fall again
The odds on Liz Truss being replaced as Conservative leader in 2022 shortened on the Betfair Exchange after new chancellor Jeremy Hunt reversed almost all of the tax measures announced in his predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng's infamous mini-budget.
Truss is 1.4840/85 to leave this year after Hunt's announcement - in from 1.748/11 earlier today.
Hunt scrapped plans to cut taxes and said the energy price guarantee - the one piece of legislation Truss could claim credit for - would only last until April next year.
He has destroyed Truss's economic agenda and Bettors are convinced that her premiership will go the same way soon.
Truss odds-on to be out this year
Liz Truss is odds-on on the Betfair Exchange to be replaced as Conservative leader this year as her own MPs call for her to resign and rumours circulate that new chancellor Jeremy Hunt is really a caretaker prime minister.
She is currently 1.748/11 to be gone before the end of the year and almost 85% of the money matched on her exit date market has been for her to leave Number 10 before the end of 2022.
The odds on Truss leaving imminently tumbled on Friday, when Truss sacked her political ally and previous chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, and they did not recover significantly across the weekend.
Before Friday's new Chancellor announcement and Truss eight minute press conference, following Kwarteng's sacking, Truss was 4.03/1 to leave her role in 2022. But the price crashed into odds-on as she failed to convince her party that she could move on from the mistakes of the past few weeks.
Truss, who only became Tory leader at the beginning of September, saw her premiership descend into turmoil after Kwarteng's controversial mini-budget just over a fortnight ago.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said:
"Journalists and punters alike will be keeping a close eye on Sir Graham Brady and the 1922 Committee. While Truss has a grace period of one year after winning the leadership contest, we know that things can change quickly in politics, and with a number of letters of no confidence already sent in according to reports, the confidence vote market is one we're keeping a close eye on too. Currently, Truss is 2.3411/8 to face a confidence vote before the next election.
"Some of the latest polls project that if there was to be a General Election now, the Tories would win just four seats, so it's no surprise to see that punters have backed a Labour majority into around even money from a high of 13.012/1.
"Despite that, a General Election anytime soon still looks unlikely. A vote to take place between now and the end of the year is 16.015/1, while 2024 or later looks most likely at 1.392/5."
Truss exit odds tumble after Kwarteng sacking
Bettors rushed to back Liz Truss to be replaced as Conservative leader this year on an extraordinary day in UK politics.
The prime minister sacked her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng early on Friday afternoon, replacing him with Jeremy Hunt, as she prepared to reverse the mini-budget of two weeks ago.
Now Truss is in to 1.75/7 on the Betfair Exchange to leave this year as speculation mounted that she would follow Kwarteng out of Downing Street before long.
Rishi Sunak is 2.3411/8 to replace Truss as Conservative leader and Penny Mordaunt is 6.05/1.
A general election this year has shortened to 17.016/1 with 2024 - when it is scheduled to take place - still the clear favourite at 1.321/3.
By removing her longtime political bedfellow Kwarteng, and planning to bin his budget, Truss has broken her promises of tax cuts to the Tory members who elected her as their leader.
She has no mandate from the public and few allies. Rumours are circulating that a group of senior Conservative MPs will ask her to leave next week.
Yesterday, Truss was 5.59/2 to leave this year, on Wednesday the price was 10.09/1, and she was once backed at a high of 170.0169/1 to go in 2022. That shows how her fortunes have deteriorated rapidly.
Hunt odds-on to replace sacked Kwarteng
Jeremy Hunt is odds-on to be appointed as chancellor of the exchequer after Kwasi Kwarteng was sacked by Liz Truss on Friday.
The former-Tory leadership candidte is 1.11/10 to get the job.
The odds on Liz Truss being replaced as Conservative party leader continued to shorten to a lowest price yet of 2.447/5.
It is rumoured that a group of senior Tory MPs will call on her to resign next week. Rishi Sunak is 2.588/5 to replace Truss while Penny Mordaunt 5.79/2 is also in the running. Both lost to Truss in this summer's leadership contest.
He has been on the back benches since being defeated by Boris Johnson in the final round of the 2019 Conservative leadership election.
Hunt previously served as foreign secretary and health secretary. Truss will hope the appointment of an experience figure will bring stability to the financial markets.
Kwarteng to be sacked, says market
Kwasi Kwarteng will be sacked as chancellor of the exchequer today, according to the Betfair Exchange.
The chancellor is 1.011/100 - the shortest possible odds - to leave this year amid reports that Liz Truss will sack him today.
Truss, meanwhile, is in to 3.9 to leave as Conservative party leader in 2022.
Events are moving rapidly and political commentators are reporting that several big names are in contention to replace Kwarteng.
They include Simon Clarke and two former chancellors - Sajid Javid and Nadim Zahawi - while Jeremy Hunt is rumoured to be another candidate for the number 11 role.
The developments come as Truss reveals plans to reverse the controversial tax-cutting mini-budget that Kwarteng delivered a fortnight ago. That sent financial markets into a tailspin.
If Kwasi Kwarteng does leave office today, it would make him the second shortest-serving chancellor in modern British history, after Iain McLeod who died on his 30th day in office.
Bettors back Truss exit this year
The odds on Liz Truss leaving office this year shortened to 5.39/2 from 10.09/1 in the last 24 hours after she faced her party's 1922 committee of back bench MPs.
She is 1.728/11 to face a no confidence vote before the next general election.
Rishi Sunak 4.216/5 is the favourite to replace her as Conservative leader, with Penny Mordaunt 7.26/1 also receiving support on the Betfair Exchange.
On another terrible day for the PM, she was routed at PMQs by Keir Starmer, there was more turmoil in the financial markets and rumours of mutinous plotting on the Conservative party backbenches.
Oh, and a clip of King Charles greeting her wearily went viral.
Tory MPs were said to be losing faith in her leadership and one described her appearance before the party's influential 1992 Committee on Wednesday evening as "appalling".
Truss exit in 2023 shortens again
Liz Truss is 1.558/15 on the Betfair Exchange to leave office in 2023 after she was grilled by Keir Starmer in her PMQs.
The price on a Truss exit next year shortened from 1.715/7 on Monday as Truss tried to deal with deepening concerns about her government's economic policies.
She is 10.09/1 to leave in 2022 and 1.695/7 to replaced as Conservative leader before the next general election.
Truss insisted her government would not cut public spending as she came under fire from Starmer in heated exchanges.
Economists have expressed serious concerns in recent days about chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's plan to cut taxes.
Truss continues to defend Kwarteng who is 2.3811/8 to leave his position this year.
Bettors are confident Labour will win the next election and make them 1.9520/21 to win a majority in the House of Commons.
Truss exit in 2023 goes odds-on
Liz Truss will leave office next year and be replaced as Conservative leader before the next general election, according to the politics latest moves on the Betfair Exchange.
A Truss exit in 2023 was backed into 1.715/7 as bettors grew convinced that the prime minister cannot come back from her poor start.
She is about to launch a charm offensive, which will include u-turns on policies announced in chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's controversial mini-budget.
Labour are odds-on to win a majority at the next general election, which is scheduled for May 2024, after a YouGov poll on Saturday gave them a 30-point lead over the Tories.
If Truss cannot turn around her party's polling deficit than they could look to replace her early in 2023. She is 1.845/6 to not be the leader of the Conservatives at the next general election.
Rishi Sunak 5.24/1 is the favourite to succeed her as Conservative leader, with Kemi Badenoch 8.27/1 and Truss's predecessor Boris Johnson, who was forced out in the summer, 9.08/1.
Truss exit in 2023 backed into around evens
Liz Truss will not lead the Conservative party into the next election and is most likely to leave office next year.
That's the verdict of bettors after Truss gave her first conference speech as party leader.
The prime minister is 2.26/5 to go in 2023 and 1.654/6 not to be leader of the Conservatives at the next general election which is scheduled for 2024.
Those odds on the Truss exit next year are in line with speculation that Tories will give her until Christmas to turn around the party's polling fortunes.
Truss arrived on stage in Birmingham to the 90s classic Moving On Up and delivered a series of soundbites, hitting out at what she claims are the UK's enemies of growth in a speech designed to rally the Tory faithful.
It went down fairly well in the hall, although there was arguably most support for Truss when she was interrupted by Greenpeace activists. She hopes to move on from the problems that she has encountered after becoming leader of the Tory party one month ago.
Truss is 8.07/1 on the Exchange to leave this year and Rishi Sunak 4.67/2 is the favourite to succeed her as Conservative leader.
Truss won't lead Tories into next election
Liz Truss won't lead the Conservatives into the next general election, according to Exchange bettors.
The prime minister is 1.645/8 not to be Tory leader at the next general election.
If those odds are correct Truss would join Iain Duncan Smith as the only leader of her party this century not to make it to an election.
Rishi Sunak, who Truss beat in this summer's leadership contest, is the favourite to replace her.
If you think Truss will get the chance to go to the electorate then odds of 2.3611/8 may appeal.
The PM will give her first party conference speech as leader this week, just four weeks after being elected by members.
She is 7.613/2 to be gone in 2022 with the shortest price on a Truss exit next year at 2.42.
This morning chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced a u-turn on plans to cut the 45p income tax rate for top earners. He is 2.427/5 to leave as chancellor this year.
Bettors continue to back Truss exit
Liz Truss to leave office this year shortened further on the Betfair Exchange on Thursday afternoon after bettors already backed it in the morning.
The PM is 7.06/1 to be gone in 2022 after opposition parties called for MPs to be recalled to parliament to discuss the financial crisis in the UK.
This follow a further drop in the Truss exit odds, as reported earlier.
Truss backed to leave in 2022
Bettors backed Liz Truss to leave office this year as criticism of the prime minister intensified amid the continuing fall out from last week's budget.
Truss is 8.27/1 on the Exchange to go in 2022 - a shorter price than she was yesterday - after taking part in interviews this morning in which she defended her economic policies. The interviews were widely considered disastrous as Truss indicated she and her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng would not change course.
Three weeks ago, after she was elected leader of the Conservative Party, the price on Truss leaving in 2022 was 170/1.
The shortest price currently is 2.526/4 on Truss leaving next year while 2024, when the next general election is scheduled to take place, is 3.39/4.
Meanwhile, the odds on a Labour majority at the next general election shortened to 2.942/1.
Labour are 1.564/7 to win the most seats - their shortest price since the market opened three years ago.
Betfair have opened an Exchange market on Kwarteng's exit dates as chancellor.
He is under immense pressure after the pound plunged in value and the British economy went into a tailspin as a sign that investors have no confidence in him.
Truss has continued to back her chancellor, despite a rebuke from the IMF and extraordinary rumours that the Bank of England intervened in the bond markets yesterdat as an emergency measure to save some British pensions.
Truss exit next year is new favourite
Bettors backed an early exit for prime minister Liz Truss as more economic volatility on Wednesday followed a rebuke from the IMF and the Bank of England saying it would intervene in the bond markets.
Truss shortened to 9.08/1 on the Exchange to leave this year - the lowest price yet - while 2023 became the new favourite at 2.3411/8. She only became prime minister three weeks ago.
A Truss exit in 2024 - the year when the next general election is scheduled to take place - had been the favourite but it's out to 3.39/4 as pressure mounts on the PM.
The market is moving fast and the prices quoted are correct at the time of writing.
Calls for an early general election are intensifying and, while 2024 1.271/4 is still the firm favourite, it is a market to watch closely while the financial turmoil continues in the UK.
A general election in 2022 is 27.026/1 while it is 5.49/2 to be held next year.
Labour are 1.68/13 to win the next election after Keir Starmer delivered his speech yesterday at the party's conference. Get Paul Krishnamurty's reaction.
Truss exit odds shorten amid crisis
The odds on Liz Truss leaving office this year shortened amid rumours that some Conservative MPs have already sent in letters of no confidence in their leader.
Truss only became prime minister three weeks ago but she came under fire on Monday after the pound hit a record low against the dollar.
As reported by Paul Krishnamurty on the politics live blog, Tory MPs are already briefing against Truss.
The odds on her leaving as Conservative leader this year have shortened to 13.5.
Truss is 2.829/5 to go next year and 2.6213/8 to leave in 2024 - the year when the next general election is scheduled to take place.
Labour are 1.75/7 to win the next election.
The shortest term served by a British prime minister was George Canning who had the job for 119 days in 1827.
Pound plunge leaves economic policy in chaos
At one point on Monday, the pound plunged nearly 5% to $1.0327, its lowest since Britain went decimal in 1971, as the economic crisis deepened.
That was in response to chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-budget which delivered a tax cut bonanza and hints from Kawrteng over the weekend that there could be more cuts to come.
That undermined confidence in the UK government and economy.
The pound started to recover on Monday afternoon, as rumours of a Bank of England intervention today circulated, but the crisis is far from over.
The Betfair Exchange market is up on whether Truss will face a no confidence vote this year.
Labour backed to win next general election
The next general election is scheduled for 2024 and heavy odds-on to be held then.
Some critics of the government have called for an early election but it is 30.029/1 that there will be one this year.
Labour, which is holding its annual conference in Liverpool this week, is in to 1.75/7 to win the most seats at the next general election, while the Conservatives are out to 2.47/5.
Keir Starmer is 1.9310/11 to be the next prime minister.
The price on a Labour majority at the next general election shortened to 3.211/5, with Tories drifting to 4.67/2, and no over all majority the favourite at 2.1211/10.
Truss wins with 57% of vote
Liz Truss was confirmed as the new leader of the Conservative party after taking 57% of the vote in the leadership contest.
She is set to be become the UK's new prime minister tomorrow after she has met with the Queen.
Truss will then select her cabinet with Kwasi Kwarteng tipped to be her chancellor.
The Sportsbook was quick off the mark with a new market, making Kwarteng the favourite to succeed Truss as the next Conservative leader.
Truss won 81,326 votes and her opponent Rishi Sunak took 60,399. The contest was closer than expected. She had been backed to win more than 60%.
Her margin of victory was not as big as the outgoing Boris Johnson's over Jeremy Hunt in 2019. Johnson won 66% three years ago while David Cameron got 67% in 2005.
She paid tribute to Johnson, saying he was "admired from Kyiv to Carlisle, and vowed to lead the Conservatives to victory at the next general election in 2024 (note the date).
Bettors aren't confident about her chances at the next election making a Tory majority 4.03/1 on the Exchange and polling shows Labour more than 10 points ahead.
The Conservatives are 2.021/1 to win the most seats with Labour 1.9620/21 marginally shorter.
It was notable that Truss said she would deliver an election victory in 2024 - 1.321/3 - the year when the next general election is scheduled to take place.
There have been calls from voters for a snap general election but Truss looks likely to give herself the maximum amount of time possible to repair her party's relationship with the electorate.
She was promised to tackle the cost of energy bills and the longer term challenges concerning energy supply.
Next Tory leader due to be announced
The winner of Conservative party leadership contest is set to be announced in the next hour.
When that happens the following markets will be settled:
- Next Conservative Leader
- Members Vote Percentage - Truss
- Exit Dates - Boris Johnson
- Will Rishi Sunak be the next Conservative Leader?
Labour more likely than Tories to win majority
Liz Truss is heavy odds-on to be confirmed as the new leader of the Conservative party and prime minister on Monday. The betting indicates she will win more than 60% of the vote against Rishi Sunak.
But the Betfair politics markets also show Truss will face an enormous challenge as soon she enters number 10 Downing Street.
For the first time, the latest odds on the Betfair Exchange show Labour a shorter price than the Tories to win a majority at the next election.
Labour are 3.711/4, the Conservative are 4.03/1 and no over all majority is 2.0421/20, with the next general election odds-on to be in 2024.
That doesn't give Truss much time to rebuild her party's bridges with the electorate and she will be alarmed to see a Delta poll on Friday showing the Tories 13 points behind Labour when it comes to voting intention.
Truss to sweep into number 10 on Monday
The outcome of the Conservative leadership election is a foregone conclusion with Liz Truss 1.051/20 to beat Rishi Sunak 18.017/1 and become Britain's prime minister on Monday (5 September).
The final hustings of the contest will take place in London tonight with the two candidates debating for the final time.
The question for bettors now is - how much of the Conservative members' vote will go to Truss?
In the Members' Vote Percentage market on the Exchange, Truss is 2.6413/8 to win 60 - 65%. That's the shortest price of any option.
Three years ago, Boris Johnson won 66% of the members' vote. If you think Truss can match that then back 65-70% at 3.1511/5.
If you think the market is over-estimating Truss's popularity with the members then you might fancy a gamble on 55-60% at 5.95/1.
Whatever the margin of victory, Truss will face huge challenges as soon as she takes office. She is far more popular with the members than with the MPs and there are already rumours that Tory politicians have no faith in Truss to solve the problems facing their party and the country.
The Conservatives are more than 10 points behind Labout in most polls and a Labour majority is a shorter price than a Tory majority at the next election, with a hung parliament the favourite.
Labour backed to beat Truss's Tories
Labour are the favourites to win the most seats at the next general election for the first time since 2019.
Bettors are in no doubt that Liz Truss 1.071/14 - a 94% chance - will become the next Conservative leader, when the result of the party leadership contest is announced in a fortnight.
But they are not convinced she will get them re-elected.
Truss is expected to enjoy a poll bounce, when she takes office, but the odds indicate she faces a mammoth task at the next general election, which is 1.261/4 to be in 2024.
They have a working majority of 71 in the House of Commons but the chances of them winning another majority look slim at 4.03/1.
A Labour majority 3.953/1 is shorter but the favourite is no over all majority 1.9720/21.
Truss will face a busy in tray, with several crises to tackle immediately, and the long term goal of winning back public support for her party.
Market points to emphatic Truss victory
With Liz Truss heavy odds-on to be the UK's next prime minister, attention to has turned to how much of the vote she will win.
In the Members Vote Percentage market on the Exchange Truss is 2.546/4 to win 60-65%.
Truss is 1.091/11 to win the leadership election - the result of which will be announced on 5 September - with her opponent Rishi Sunak 11.010/1.
The pair will take part in hustings today in Perth but, with three weeks to go in this long contest, it's clear who will be succeeding Boris Johnson in Downing Street next month.
After that, it will be down to the new leader to try to revive the party's fortunes and put them in a position to win the next general election - slated for May 2024.
They will be hoping for a polling bounce under their new leader.
The Tories are 1.8910/11 to win the next general election, with Labour 2.1411/10, but the market indicates that the Conservatives will lose their majority.
No over all majority is 1.834/5 on the Exchange with a consecutive Tory majority as long as 4.03/1.
Truss looks unassailable with month to go
Liz Truss is 1.121/8 - an 89% chance - on the Betfair Exchange in the next Conservative leader betting with one month to go in the contest.
She is the same price to be Britain's next prime minister.
Former chancellor Rishi Sunak is 9.417/2 as his campaign to succeed Boris Johnson goes from bad to worse.
On Friday, a video went viral which showed Sunak boasting to supporters in Tunbridge Wells that he had taken money from deprived constituencies and poured it into theirs.
The comments were condemned by Labour and by some northern Tory MPs, while commentators claimed it could finish his already struggling leadership campaign.
The latest odds on the next general election - which is 1.282/7 to take place in 2024 - make no over all majority for any party the favourite at 1.834/5.
The Conservatives are still the favourites to win the most seats at 1.8810/11.
Truss 34 points ahead of Sunak
Just when we thought we might have a closer Tory leadership contest than previously though - see below - on our hands, a YouGov poll gave Liz Truss what looks like an unassailable lead.
Liz Truss shortened to 1.132/15 on the Betfair Exchange in the next Conservative leader betting as the poll put her 34 points ahead of Sunak who has drifted to 8.88/1.
Truss leads Sunak among Tory members in all parts of the country, with both men and women.
The only glimmer of hope for Sunak may be that the polling was conducted before Truss's u-turn yesterday on civil service pay after a backlash from within her own party.
Blunder from favourite sees support for Sunak
Finally, some good news for Rishi Sunak.
The former-chancellor shortened to 4.77/2 and Liz Truss drifted to 1.271/4 on the Betfair Exchange in the next Conservative leader betting after the favourite was forced to make a u-turn.
Sunak had seen his odds go to 10/1 in recent days, as his campaigned floundered.
His team were desperate to find a way to revive his chances of becoming prime minister but, in the end, it was a blunder from his rival that reignited the contest.
On Tuesday morning Truss unveiled plans to cut civil service pay outside London. But that was met by a furious outcry from Conservative MPs and the Conservative Tees Valley mayor.
Truss was forced into a u-turn which Sunak's team responded to by saying that, had this been a general election, it would have been a "potentially fatal own goal for the Conservatives."
About that they may be right. During the 2017 general election campaign, Theresa May had to make a u-turn on planned changes to social care funding. Arguably it was a turning point in an election in which the Conservatives lost their majority in parliament.
Truss pulls clear as members receive ballots
Liz Truss was backed in to 1.11/10 - an 91% chance - on the Betfair Exchange in the next Conservative leader betting.
Tory party members have been receiving their ballot papers as they prepare to choose between Truss and Rishi Sunak.
Sunak is out to 11.010/1 in the betting as he tries to revive his flagging campaign by promising to cut income tax.
The graph shows his chances of becoming the UK's next prime minister have been in freefall.
The former-chancellor, who has previously opposed tax cuts, said on Monday he would cut the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 16% by the end of the next parliament if he becomes prime minister.
Truss's supporters were quick to accuse Sunak of a u-turn and said she would cut tax sooner.
The winner of the leadership contest will be announced on 5 September.
They will then have under two years to catch up with Labour in the polls, before the next general election is scheduled to take place in May 2024.
Truss backed as supports round on Sunak
Liz Truss was backed in to 1.171/6 - an 86% chance - on the Betfair Exchange as she put clear distance between herself and Rishi Sunk in the next Conservative leader betting.
The pair are competing to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister and bettors are in little doubt that it's the foreign secretary who's heading for number 10 Downing Street.
Sunak is 7.06/1 on the Exchange, despite coming first in every round of voting among MPs, and it would take an upset for him to be announced as the party's next leader on 5 September.
Truss came under fire on Wednesday when the Institute for Goverment declared that, under her stewardship, Foreign Office morale was low and Britain had failed to regain its global footing.
Supporters, however, concentrated on criticising Sunak with Johnson loyalist Nadine Dorries saying Sunak was part of the plot to oust the outgoing prime minister.
Truss is regarded as the Johnsonite candidate, although the PM has said he won't back a candidate in this leadership election.
Tory party grandees have warned Truss and Sunak not to engage in a blue-on-blue slanging match, that could do long-term damage to the party brand. However, that appears to have fallen on deaf ears as the pair continue to needle each other.
The betting indicates that it is Sunak who needs to land some decisive blows if he's to have any chance of winning.
Slight drift on Truss, bit of support for Sunak
The odds haven't moved massively, but in a market that is approaching £3m in money traded there has been support for Rishi Sunak to be the Next Conservative Leader, in from 2.546/4 last night to 2.47/5 this morning.
And in a two-horse race, where one of the runners shortens in the betting, the other lengthens, meaning Liz Truss is now out to 1.728/11 from 1.674/6.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: "Liz Truss remains the odds-on favourite to be the next Tory leader after she overtook Penny Mordaunt to make the final two in the leadership contest on Wednesday. She will be facing Rishi Sunak, whose odds have slightly shortened to 7/5 from 6/4 overnight."
Truss and Sunak to do battle after Mordaunt eliminated
Liz Truss is the 1.674/6 favourite to be the Next Conservative Leader after gaining more votes than Penny Mordaunt to make the final two in the leadership contest earlier today.
As it stands, Truss' opponent, Rishi Sunak, is the 2.546/4 underdog on the Betfair Exchange to replace Boris Johnson.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: "It will be Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak going head-to-head to be the next Tory leader following Wednesday's final Tory leadership ballot.
"Odds on Liz Truss to replace Boris Johnson have been slashed to 4/6 from Evens since the ballot results, while Sunak is 6/4 to move into No.10."
The two remaining candidates will be left to campaign over the summer to convince Conservative party members to back them.
The winner, who will become the next Conservative Party leader and prime minister, will be announced on Monday 5 September ready for Parliament's return.
It looks like a Truss-Sunak final two
Liz Truss is short odds-on at 1.241/4 to make the final two of the Tory Leadership contest after today's final ballot.
Penny Mordaunt, the one-time frontrunner to replace Boris Johnson, is 4.77/2 to make the final two and 8.27/1 to be next Tory Leader.
Rishi Sunak, who leads the way with 118 votes, is almost guaranteed to be in the final two at 1.011/100 as he bids to replace Johnson.
But it's Truss who is fancied to be named next Tory Leader with the foreign secretary the even money favourite to move into No.10 in September. Sunak is 2.6413/8.
Truss new favourite after latest ballot
Liz Truss is the new 2.26/5 favourite to be the next Tory leader after gaining the biggest increase of votes (15) in the fourth ballot on Tuesday. Rishi Sunak, who had started Tuesday morning as the Even money favourite to succeed Boris Johnson, has drifted to 2.568/5, while one time odds-on favourite Penny Mordaunt is 7.06/1.
For deeper analysis, read Paul Krishnamurty's latest here.
Liz Truss odds-on to make final two
Liz Truss is now as short as 1.574/7 to be in the final two Tory MPs left in the leadership contest. Her odds were cut after winning seven votes in the latest ballot, while it almost seems a formality that Rishi Sunak will be in the final two, after Penny Mordaunt lost a vote in the third ballot. Sunak can be backed at 1.011/100 in the betting.
Last week, Mordaunt was odds-on favourite to succeed Boris Johnson, but has since drifted out to 5.59/2. Sunak has continued to shorten as the clear 2.01/1 favourite to replace Boris at No.10, while Truss is now the second favourite at 3.55/2.
Truss usurps Mordaunt as second fav
Sunak back to favourite for next Tory leader after second TV debate
Rishi Sunak is the 2.26/5 Betfair Exchange favourite to be the next Tory leader after Sunday's second televised debate
Sunak was the early frontrunner when Boris Johnson resigned earlier this month, but was supplanted at the head of the betting by Penny Mordaunt last week.
However, after poor showings in the two debates, and a string of attacks from her rivals, Mordaunt is out to 3.65 to move into No.10, with Liz Truss 4.77/2 and Kemi Badenoch 16.015/1
A Sunak v Mordaunt battle to be next Tory Leader is he likeliest state of affairs as it stands - Sunak is 1.051/20 to make the final two, while Mordaunt is 1.654/6
Race tightens as Truss overtakes Sunak
Liz Truss overtook Rishi Sunak in the next Conservative Party leader betting as the race tightened on Friday morning.
The Foreign secretary's hopes were boosted when she received the backing of Suella Braverman who was knocked out of the contest in Thursday's second round.
Truss is 3.711/4 behind Penny Mordaunt who remains favourite but has seen her price drift to 2.0811/10 as critics rounded on her.
Some have questioned Mordaunt's lack of experience after the 49-year-old stormed to the front of the betting thanks to a poll that showed her winning with Conservative members.
Sunak is 4.84/1 to be the next leader but he has won both rounds of voting so far and, at 1.331/3, is the shortest price of anyone to reach the final round of two candidates.
Mordaunt is 1.392/5 to reach the final two and Truss is 2.166/5.
Mordaunt firm favourite after round two
Penny Mordaunt shortened to 1.738/11 to be the next leader of the Conservative Party after finishing second in the second round of voting.
Rishi Sunak 4.84/1 came first with 101 votes from MPs while Mordaunt received 83 - an increase on the first round of 13 and 16 respectively.
The former chancellor is longer odds than Mordaunt due to the belief - backed up by polling - that he will fare less well when party members vote in the final round.
Liz Truss 5.39/2 came second, Kemi Badendoch 44.043/1 was fourth and Tom Tugendhat 320.00319/1 finished fifth.
Suella Braverman is out of the contest after coming sixth in the second round.
Mordaunt odds-on favourite after first round
Penny Mordaunt is 1.8910/11 to be the next leader of the Conservative Party after finishing second in the first round of voting.
Rishi Sunak finished first with 88 votes from MPs but he is 4.3100/30 to in the outright betting on the contest.
That's due to a YouGov poll yesterday which showed the former-chancellor trailing significantly to other candidates among party members.
In the final run-off between two candidates, around 160,000 party members will choose their next leader. The poll, which you can see below, showed Mordaunt winning.
She received 67 votes in the first round, beating Liz Truss into third on 50.
Truss is out to 5.69/2 to win the contest and 3.02/1 to make the final two.
The other candidates still in the contest are Kemi Badenock 7.413/2, Tom Tugendhat 23.022/1 and Suelle Braverman 38.037/1.
Jeremy Hunt and Nadim Zahawi were eliminated after failing to receive 30 votes.
Mordaunt odds-on favourite with Sunak drifting
Penny Mordaunt was backed into odds-on favouritism to be the next leader of the Conservative Party after a poll of party members put her firmly ahead.
She is 1.875/6 - a 54% chance - to win the contest and become the UK's next prime minister.
Rishi Sunak, who started today as favourite, drifted to 4.77/2 as the poll showed him losing in a potential final round head-to-head against Mordaunt and other candidates.
The former-chancellor is expected to win the first round, in which Tory MPs are now voting, but it's members' votes that count in the final round and that's where Mordaunt could win support.
She is 1.412/5 to make the final round while Sunak is 1.271/4.
Find out why our politics betting expert Paul Krishnamurty, who has been a Mordaunt backer for months, was impressed by her campaign launch this morning.
Mordaunt backed into joint favouritism
On Wednesday morning, Penny Mordaunt was backed into joint favouritism with Rishi Sunak in the betting on the Conservative leadership contest.
The minister for trade has attracted support in the market as the candidate most likely to stop the former-chancellor becoming Britain's next prime minister.
Afterwards she drifted to around 3.02/1 with Suank regaining favouritism at 2.8415/8.
Sunak is 1.132/15 to make the final round of two candidates - in which Conservative party members make their choice - and Mordaunt is 1.625/8.
The betting indicates that the likes of Liz Truss 4.47/2, Kemi Badenoch 16.5 and Tom Tugendhat 26.025/1 will need to pick up momentum if they are to prevent the leadership contest coming down to a battle between Sunak and Mordaunt.
Mordaunt was briefly joint favourite overnight
Penny Mordaunt was backed into joint favouritism with Rishi Sunak in the next Conservative leader betting last night.
The minister for trade policy saw her odds tumbled to 3.259/4 from 6.05/1.
She subsequently drifted to her current price of 3.7511/4 with Sunak 2.747/4 regaining favouritism.
Meanwhile, Liz Truss 5.04/1 is being labelled "the Johnsonite candidate" after winning the support of Nadine Dorries and Jacob Rees-Mogg, two of the MPs most loyal to the outgoing prime minister.
Rees-Moog wasted no time in calling Sunak a "socialist". They are waging what's being dubbed a "Stop Sunak" campaign.
Dominic Raab, on the other hand, has declared his support for the former-chancellor.
The other big development this morning is the news that Labour is planning to call a confidence vote in the government. It could be held tomorrow and would give every MP a chance to vote.
If Labour were to win the confidence vote it could trigger a general election. Bettors think that's unlikely and make a general election this year 15.014/1.
Truss launches bid with Sunak and Mordaunt ahead of her
Liz Truss is 5.79/2 to be the next leader of the Conservative party after the foreign secretary launched her bid to succeed Boris Johnson.
The 46-year-old, who previously served in the David Cameron and Theresa May governments, is third in the betting behind Rishi Sunak 2.9215/8 and Penny Mordaunt 4.84/1.
Truss said: "I have a clear vision for our country and economy - and the experience and resolve to deliver it."
She has never been far from the top of the market in recent years and has, at various times, been the favourite.
She is 3.052/1 to make the final round of two candidates where party members elect the new leader.
Rehman Chishti, the Conservative MP for Gillingham and Rainham, has also entered the race.
He is unknown outside the party - and some would say within it - and his candidacy has prompted some to complain about the size of the field (11 candidates had declared at the last count).
There are rumours that the party will exclude candidates without the backing of fewer than 36 MPs after the first round.
Money for Sunak and Hunt as Wallace rules himself out
The Tory Leadership race became a little clearer on Saturday afternoon when one of the early favourites, Ben Wallace, ruled himself out of becoming the next Conservative Party leader.
Defence Secretary Wallace was the early front runner to replace Boris Johnson when the market opened on Thursday but on Saturday the 52-year-old tweeted, "After careful consideration and discussing with colleagues and family, I have taken the decision not to enter the contest for leadership of the Conservative Party."
The bettors and layers reacted quickly on the Betfair Exchange, resulting in clear favourite Rishi Sunak shortening to around 2.56/4 before drifting out to 3.02/1 on Sunday morning.
The latest market move appears to be for Jeremy Hunt, while Penny Mordaunt has also come in for support in the last 24 hours.
Former Foreign Secretary Hunt has been matched at a high of 34.033/1 in the Next Conservative Leader market, but is this morning available to back at just 11.010/1 after sustained support overnight.
Mordaunt has shortened from 7.06/1 yesterday to her current price of 5.24/1, just ahead of Liz Truss at 7.87/1. Tom Tugendhad is the only other candidate in the market trading at below 20/1, currently available to back at 13.012/1.
Tight at the top as Sunak enters leadership race
Rishi Sunak is the marginal 4.77/2 favourite to become the Next Conservative Leader after announcing his candidacy on Friday afternoon.
The former chancellor is the most high profile figure to enter the leadership race since Boris Johnson announced his resignation earlier this week.
Sunak announced his decision to stand in a social media video using the slogan 'Ready For Rishi' and said he wanted to "restore trust, rebuild the economy and reunite the country".
Sunak has replaced early favourite Ben Wallace at the top of the Exchange betting, who is now out to 5.39/2, with Penny Mordaunt available to back at 7.613/2 and Friday's early mover, Tom Tugendhat, slightly on the drift, out to 9.617/2.
We have also introduced a Will Rishi Sunak be the next Conservative Leader market on the Betfair Exchange, with the No option the early favourite at 1.251/4.
Wallace favourite but Tugendhat shortens after launching bid
Tom Tugendhat was backed into 9.08/1 to be the next leader of the Conservative party after he entered the race to succeed Boris Johnson.
Defence secretary Ben Wallace is the 4.57/2 favourite, although he is yet to announce that he will be standing.
Rishi Sunak, who resigned as chancellor on Tuesday, is also prominent in the betting at 6.411/2 as is Penny Mordaunt 7.413/2 (pictured below). Neither has said they will stand, although rumours continue about Sunak setting up a campaign base in central London.
Suank and Wallace are the shortest prices in the newly-launched market on which MPs will make the final two in the leadership contest.
Backbencher Tugendhat - who has never served in government - said he can offer the Tories a "fresh start" as he confirmed he was entering the running.
On Friday Boris Johnson faced more pressure to leave office immediately. He plans to continue as prime minister until the new Conservative leader is chosen.
Labour threatened to call a confidence vote in the government if Johnson continues to cling to power. If the government were to lose the vote, it would trigger a general election.
A new poll this morning put Labour 11 points head of the Conservatives but, on the Exchange, the Tories are 1.794/5 to win the most seats at the next election with Labour 2.226/5.
Bettors do not anticipate an early election and make 2024 - the year when it is scheduled to take place - 1.351/3.