Next PM Latest Odds: Starmer backed to replace Boris Johnson after partygate fines

Max Liu
29 March 2022
3:00 min read

Keir Starmer was backed after the Met issued partygate fines

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The politics betting markets have reacted to the news that the police will issue fines over partygate and bettors are backing Keir Starmer to be next PM says Max Liu...

"If you think there's a good chance Johnson will be out within the next six months then 3.814/5 on him not being PM by the time the conference comes around is an appealing price."

Bettors backed Keir Starmer to become the UK's next prime minister after the Metropolitan Police said around 20 fixed penalty notices would be issued to those who broke lockdown rules.

The Labour leader is 5.95/1 - a marginally shorter price than chancellor Rishi Sunak 6.05/1 - on who will occupy number ten Downing Street after Boris Johnson.

The Met said the first batch of fines would be for the most straightforward cases. This is not expected to include Johnson who denied he broke any rules.

Labour calls Johnson a liar

Labour has been quick to react to the breaking news.

Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, says the Met announcement about fines over Partygate showed Johnson was a "proven liar".

Labour has said Johnson must resign as prime minister if he is found to have broken rules and is fined by the police.

The Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice group responded to today's news by saying Johnson should have resigned months ago.

Two new markets have opened on the Exchange concerning Johnson's premiership - you bet on whether he will resign before the end of April and whether there will be a no confidence vote in his leadership the same month.

The partygate scandal punctured Johnson's popularity at the end of 2021 when the first reports of allegedly illegal parties in Downing Street during lockdown started to surface.

It raged into the New Year, with the PM appearing to be on the brink of leaving, but the pressure on Johnson eased off after Sue Gray's report into the allegations - even though it was damning - and the news agenda became dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Boris Johnson leaves Downing St in mask.jpg

The price on Johnson leaving before September's Tory party conference drifted and he is still 1.261/4 to be PM by then.

The police fines, however, should put the partygate firmly back on the national agenda.

If you think there's a good chance Johnson will be out within the next six months then 3.814/5 on him not being PM by the time the conference comes around is an appealing price.

No overall majority is the favourite outcome at the next general election but the Conservatives are odds-on to win the most seats.

Keep up to date with the latest politics betting moves on our live blog.

Thursday 5 May, 7.00am

Market rules

	Back	Lay
Keir Starmer
Liz Truss
Jeremy Hunt
Tom Tugendhat
Rishi Sunak.
Ben Wallace
Penny Mordaunt
Sajid Javid
Nadhim Zahawi
Michael Gove
Dominic Raab
Priti Patel
Steve Barclay
Mark Harper
Tobia Ellwood
Theresa May
Steve Baker
Andrew Burnham
James Cleverly
Kemi Badenoch
Rory Stewart
Jacob Rees-Mogg
Anne Marie Trevelyan
Oliver Dowden
Johnny Mercer
Ruth Davidson
Matthew Hancock
Angela Rayner
Esther McVey
Andrea Leadsom
Nigel Farage
David Davis
Yvette Cooper
Kit Malthouse
Ed Davey
Alok Sharma
Lisa Nandy
Jeremy Corbyn
David Miliband
Sadiq Khan
Damian Hinds
Jo Swinson
Rebecca Long-Bailey
Amber Rudd
Dominic Grieve
Gavin Williamson
Geoffrey Cox
Tom Watson
John McDonnell
Jess Phillips
Emily Thornberry
Ken Clarke
Margaret Beckett
Caroline Lucas
Ian Blackford
Liz Saville-Roberts
Sylvia Hermon
Harriet Harman
John Bercow
Philip Hammond
Hilary Benn
Andrea Jenkyns
Bim Afolami
David Cameron
Helen Whately
Layla Moran
Daisy Cooper
Christine Jardine
Wera Hobhouse
Alistair Carmichael
Rosena Allin-Khan
Robert Jenrick
Simon Jordan
Suella Braverman
Nadine Dorries
Aaron Bell
William Wragg
Bernard Jenkin
Wes Streeting
Rachel Reeves
Chris Bryant