Starmers party still odds-on to win most seats
General Election could just over a year away
A Conservative defeat, and resulting change of government, is still the most likely outcome at the next general election. But the odds on a Labour majority have drifted to evens on the Betfair Exchange.
Labour have not won a majority at a general election since 2005, and have been out of power for 13 years.
But the Conservatves' problems, and a widespread sense that Labour had regained voters' trust, lead many to believe that Keir Starmer's party would win comfortably in 2024 - when the election is most likely to take place.
That may still happen and, at evens, the Labour majority is still the favourite outcome on the Betfair Exchange, with no over all majority 2.6213/8 and the Conservative majority 7.87/1.
Starmer odds-on to be next PM
Starmer is 1.351/3 to be the next prime minster but they worry for him is that less than a month ago the outright Labour win was 1.758/11. It was as short as 1.68/13 after they won the West Lancashire by-election in February.
Most polls recently have Starmer's party 10-15 points ahead of the Conservatives. That's encouraging but less so when you remember Labour were as far ahead as 20-25 points earlier this year and towards the end of 2022.
Commentator have said that the public still don't know who Starmer is or what he stands for. The Labour leader probably needs to answer both of those questions if he is to become PM.
Sunak could wait until October '24 for election
The closing of the gap is unlikely to be down to an improved performance by Rishi Sunak as prime minister.
He is perceived to have steadied the Tory ship since taking over as leader last autumn but the economic problems facing Britain, and distrust in the government, will be difficult to fix in time for the next election.
The local elections on 4 May should give a clear indication of how the public feels about the government.
It has been reported recently that Sunak may put off the next general election for as long as possible. It was long expected to take place just over a year from now in May 2024. Now October '24 is being mooted as a potential date.
If it does take place then, there would be a UK general election and US presidential election in the same autumn. Which would give politics punters plenty to think about.
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