Next General Election: No over all majority favourite as Sunak gets poll bounce

Max Liu
31 October 2022

Sunak's Conservatives need to eat into Labour's poll lead

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Get the latest UK general election odds and insight as a hung parliament becomes favourite thanks to a small poll bounce for the Conservatives at the beginning of Rishi Sunak's premiership...

Hung parliament regains favouritism

Labour majority drifts

Starmer odds-on to be next PM

No election until 2024

On the Betfair Exchange no over all majority is the favourite outcome at the next general election again after the Conservatives enjoyed a small resurgence in the polls, thanks to Rishi Sunak's start as prime minister.

Several polls at the weekend showed the Tories getting a small bounce after Sunak replaced Liz Truss in 10 Downing Street.

The Labour majority at the next general election had been the favourite for weeks but it has drifted to 2.447/5.

The Conservative majority is still 5.85/1 but Sunak will pleased to see the market indicating that he can deny Labour a majority at the election which is 1.321/3 to take place in 2024.

Starmer odds-on to be next PM

Sunak will be less happy with the 1.594/7 on Labour to win the most seats and become the largest party at Westminster. That would almost certainly mean Keir Starmer becomes PM - an outcome which is 1.594/7 on the Betfair Exchange.

Last week, after becoming Conservative leader, Sunak reportedly told his MPs in private that there would be no early election.

Keir Starmer thumbs up.jpg

The past few months have seen polling that the Tories were heading for electoral wipe out, with Labour ahead by as much as 30 points. Tory MPs fear they could end up in a scenario similar to 1997 when Labour won a majority of 179.

That could still turn out to be the case. But Opinium this weekend showed Labour down six points to 44% of the vote and the Conservatives up five to 28. Survation showed a similar trend with a small gain for the Tories coupled with a slight loss of support for Labour.

Labour are still a long way ahead - further than they would have dared to dream a year ago - but Sunak can take encouragement from the slight improvement for his party. It is something to build on.

Meanwhile, the big political developments in the next week are likely to be in the US where the midterm elections take place on 8 November. Read Paul Krishnamurty's latest analysis of the state of play.

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