UK Politics

Next General Election Betting: Spring election backed after autumn statement

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak
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Get the latest UK politics odds from the Betfair Exchange after the chancellor Jeremy Hunt delivered what could be his party's final autumn statement...

  • Labour odds-on to win majority

  • Tory majority 11/112.00 on Betfair

  • Do January tax cuts signal spring election?

A spring general election shortened to 3.613/5 on the Betfair Exchange after Jeremy Hunt said in his autumn statement that he would bring in cuts to National Insurance tax in January.

Why are the two things connected? Because goverments love to use tax cuts as pre-election sweeteners. Hunt's cut to NI tax, which he said would benefit 27 million people, would be more helpful to the Tories' election chances if Britons go to the polls in spring rather than autumn.

That's why a spring election - in April, May or June 2024 - may be value at the prices on the Exchange, compared to an autumn election which is the 1.768/11 favourite.

Hunt's emergency gamble won't save Tories

Hunt will use emergency legislation to make sure his NI plan comes into effect in January but, based on the Betfair Exchange odds, the real emergency for the Tories is their election prospects.

Labour are 1.364/11 to win a majority, no over all majority is 5.14/1 and a Conservative majority is 12.011/1.

Labour leader Keir Starmer is 1.232/9 to be the UK's next prime minister.

It is a staggering reversal of both main parties' fortunes from the last election which took place less than four years ago. But three PMs, constant in-fighting among MPs and a significant fall in living standards will do that to a government.

Jeremy Hunt 956.jpg

Hunt is so aware that his party are heading for meltdown that he recently announced he will not stand for re-election after polling showed he was at risk of losing his Surrey seat.

The Tories are 2.747/4 to lose more than 200 seats so there could be plenty of high profile casualties come election night.

Last weekend, an Ipsos poll on Westminster voting intention put Labour 21 points clear of the Tories nationally.

Tory MPs wanted Hunt to give them something to take to voters' doorsteps in the run-up to the next general election. Today's cut to NI tax is exactly that but the Betfair election odds indicate that it will not be enough to keep this government in power.

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