Next General Election: Boris Johnson's Tories 40% chance to win majority

Max Liu
06 October 2021
3:00 min read

Boris Johnson delivers his speech to the Conservative party conference

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Following Boris Johnson's party conference speech the Conservatives are around 6/4 to win a majority at the next general election, as Max Liu reports...

A hung parliament remains the favourite outcome at the next election at 2.245/4. The Conservatives are, however, favourites to win the most seats at 1.548/15.

The Conservatives are 2.447/5 to win a majority at the next UK general election after Boris Johnson delivered his speech at the Conservative party conference in Manchester.

In his third speech as party leader, and possibly the penultimate one before the next general election, Johnson vowed that his government would "build back better" as the UK recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Johnson played to his strength - sunny optimism - and was cheered by the party faithful who lapped up his vows to unleash Britain's potential. He made references to British sporting success, including the England football team.

Boris Johnson & Carrie Symonds Euro 2020.jpg

There were few details about how he would turn post-Brexit Britain into a global economic powerhouse and critics said the speech was light on policy. He made no mention of supply chain difficulties or petrol station queues.

He took swipes at Keir Starmer:

Boris Johnson says Labour is run by lawyers who live in Islington.

He is, of course, somebody who lived with a lawyer in a £3.75m townhouse in Islington for 10 years.
? Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) October 6, 2021

Johnson's speech was notably shorter than Starmer's last week and some in the Tory press praised it:

Boris Johnson's speech was a triumph

Sam Leithhttps://t.co/8OTc5Oqlxi
? The Spectator (@spectator) October 6, 2021

A hung parliament remains the favourite outcome at the next election at 2.245/4. The Conservatives are, however, favourites to win the most seats at 1.548/15.

The next election is 1.695/7 to be in 2024 and 2.829/5 to be in 2023. An election next year is 14.013/1 on the Exchange.

They continue to enjoy a lead over Labour in most polls and Johnson's grip on his party looks strong. There was no talk of moves against him this week in Manchester, as there often is at party conferences.

He is 1.824/5 to continue as Tory leader until 2024 of later.

When Johnson does leave, the chancellor Rishi Sunak 3.65 is the firm favorite to succeed him as Conservative leader.

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