May 6 Election Odds: Latest betting on Scotland, Hartlepool and more

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
Nicola Sturgeon campaigning for the Scottish elections on 6 May
Will SNP win a majority on Thursday?

With one day to go until voters go to the polls in the Scottish Parliament elections, Hartlepool by-election and more, Max Liu discusses the latest odds...

"Nicola Sturgeon's party are 2.0811/10 to win a majority - just shy of a 50/50 chance - and 1.834/5 to fall short of the all-important 65 seat mark in the 129 member parliament."

Bettors think the SNP will fail to win a majority in the Scottish Parliament elections on 6 May. But the odds on the Betfair Exchange are within the margin of error on the eve of voting and the outcome could easily go either way.

There is everything to play for as people living in Scotland prepare to go to the polls in the election that will could determine the future of the United Kingdom.

SNP majority bid on a knife-edge

Nicola Sturgeon's party are 2.0811/10 to win a majority - just shy of a 50/50 chance - and 1.834/5 to fall short of the all-important 65 seat mark in the 129 member parliament.

For months, the party had looked set to win a majority but the odds started to drift around the time of the Scottish parliament's investigation into Sturgeon's handling of allegations of misconduct against former-first minister Alex Salmond.

Now the vote is on a knife-edge, with the SNP a shoo-in to win most seats, but backed to miss out on the majority that Sturgeon would use as a mandate to call for a referendum on independence.

In the market on which party finishes second, support for the Conservatives has hardened in recent days with the Tories 1.162/13 and Labour out to 4.47/2 even though polling at the weekend showed Labour gaining support.

Bettors continue to back Tories in Hartlepool by-election

Bettors think the Hartlepool by-election is a foregone conclusion following yesterday's poll from Survation which gave the Conservatives a 17 point lead.

Keir Starmer has gone to the constituency, which Labour have held since 1964, but odds of 1.091/11 on a Tory victory indicate he's wasting his train fare.

Boris Johnson fist Hartlepool.jpg

Labour are out to 11.010/1 and our politics betting expert Paul Krishnamurty has said he thinks the lead Survation have given the Tories is too big to be wrong. Hartlepool looks set to become the latest blue brick in the once red wall.

Khan to win second term as London mayor

Sadiq Khan will win a second term as Mayor of London and any other outcome would be a miracle, according to the odds on the Betfair Exchange.

The mayor is an unbackable 1.021/50 as Tory candidate Shaun Bailey 60.059/1 fails to make an impact and the conversation on social media is dominated by the ravings of an out of work actor.

The best angle to approach this election as a bettor could be Khan's first preference vote percentage. He won 44.2% five years ago and is expected to improve on that marginally with 45-49.99% the favourite at 2.111/10.

In Wales, meanwhile, victory for Labour is also a foregone conclusion with the party 1.021/50 to win the most seats in the Welsh Parliament.

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