General Election Betting: No election until 2024 strong favourite after Sunak statement

Max Liu
23 March 2022
3:00 min read

Sunak is the favourite to be next Conservative leader

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Get the latest UK politics odds on the date of the next general election, Rishi Sunak's chances of succeeding Boris Johnson and more as Max Liu reports on the chancellor's Spring Statement...

The proposed income tax cut could signal that the government will wait until 2024, which is 1.21/5 in the year of next election market, before going to the country (it is currently scheduled for 2 May 2024).

The next general election won't be until 2024 according to the betting after Rishi Sunak delivered his Spring Statement to the House of Commons.

The chancellor, who is the favourite to succeed Boris Johnson as leader of the Conservative Party, is under pressure to ease the burden on households amid an expected cost of living crisis.

The Bank of England has warned inflation could rocket to eight per cent this year as food and energy costs soar.

A government that fails to react in such a crisis could expect to be punished at the ballot box.

Today, Sunak raised the national insurance threshold, lowered fuel duty and promised an income tax cut by 2024.

The latter could signal that the government will wait until 2024, which is at historically low odds of 1.152/13 in the year of next election market, before going to the country (it is currently scheduled for 2 May 2024).

An election this year is out to 19.018/1, as the pressure on Johnson over the Downing Street lockdown parties eases, while a 2023 vote is 7.06/1.

Boris Johnson no10 1280.jpg

The Prime Minister was under intense pressure earlier this year and the police investigation in the Downing Street parties is ongoing. However, with attention turning to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Johnson's premiership looks more secure than it did in January.

He is 1.330/100 to still be Conservative leader at the party conference in September.

Before then, however, the Tories face what could be difficult local elections in May.

Labour continue to lead the Conservatives by around four points in polling on Westminster voting intention.

But Sunak 4.67/2 is a shorter price than Labour leader Keir Starmer 6.411/2 to be the UK's next prime minister - in part due to the possiblity that Johnson will not lead the Tories into the next election but also because bettors still expect them to be the biggest party in parliament after voters have made their choice.

On the Exchange, no overall majority 1.981/1 is the shortest price of any outcome at the next election, with the Tories regarded as the most likely to party to win a majority at 2.982/1.

You can get regular updates on political betting - in the UK, America, in France, where we'll definitely see an election this year and more - from our politics live blog.