Chesham and Amersham By-Election Odds: Betting sees late Lib Dem surge

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
A UK election  polling station
Voters are going to the polls in Chesham and Amersham

By-election blues for Boris Johnson? It seems unlikely but it's still interesting that the price on the Lib Dems has shortened for today's vote in Chesham and Amersham says Max Liu...

"The Lib Dems are 5.79/2 which is remarkable when they were 16.5 on Sunday. On the Sportsbook they're 4/1 at the time of writing."

A late surge in the betting on today's Chesham and Amersham by-election has seen the odds on the Liberal Democrats shorten, raising doubts about what had looked a certain win for the Conservatives.

The Lib Dems are 5.79/2 which is remarkable when they were 16.5 on Sunday. On the Sportsbook they're 4/1 at the time of writing.

While we shouldn't get carried away - the Tories are 1.171/6 on the Exchange and 1/7 on the Sportsbook - this at least makes today's by-election interesting.

This is a Buckinghamshire constituency where the Conservatives have never lost since it was founded in 1974. They have never taken less than 50% of the vote there.

But Chesham and Amersham voted to Remain in the European Union in the referendum of 2016 and there are rumblings that Boris Johnson's populist brand of conservatism doesn't go down well among the constituency's affluent and educated voters.

Boris Johnson fist Hartlepool.jpg

It's unlikely Labour would ever be popular there - even throughout the 13 years of New Labour government the people of Chesham and Amersham elected their Tory MP - but the Lib Dems could be the recipient of some protest votes.

As well as the Brexit-factor it's worth noting that Chesham and Amersham is situated on the controversial HS2 rail route which is one reason why some commentators thought the Green Party could make inroads at this by-election.

The next few hours could be anxious ones for conservatives.

There will be another by-election in two weeks, in the Yorkshire constituency of Batley and Spen where the Tories are 1.42/5 to take a seat that's been Labour 3.613/5 since 1997.

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