Who will win the German election? Scholz is 77% chance to be chancellor

Max Liu
19 September 2021
4:00 min read

Scholz is clear favourite with one week to go

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Get the latest betting news for next Sunday's German Federal Election and find out where Boris Johnson's cabinet reshuffle leaves the UK politics markets from Max Liu...

Scholz is 1.330/100 - around a 77% chance - as one of the most surprising election races in recent European political history approaches its conclusion.

Olaf Scholz is the firm favourite on the Exchange to become the new German chancellor after next Sunday's federal election.

Scholz is 1.330/100 - around a 77% chance - as one of the most unpredictable election races in recent European political history approaches its conclusion.

Most polling shows Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) receiving around 25% of the vote - four points clear of Armin Laschet's CDD/CDU. The Green Party, which could play a crucial role when coalition negotiations begin following the outcome of next Sunday's vote, are polling a further six points back.

The German chancellor is not directly elected and, on the Exchange, you can bet on the formation of the next government.

At the time of writing an SPD/Green/Free Democratic Party coalition is the odds-against favourite at 2.285/4.

Momentous for Germany and Europe

The election on 26 September will bring to and end Angel Merkel's 16 year reign as chancellor. She came to power in 2005 when Tony Blair was UK prime minister, Jacques Chirac was president of France and George W. Bush was in the White House.

It's been an incredible era for Germany under its first woman chancellor and her departure is a defining moment for her country and Europe.

Laschet is Merkel's preferred successor - even though Scholz has served as her deputy in Germany's coalition government - but a poor campaign has seen Laschet's price slide from odds-on in the summer to 4.57/2 with one week to go.

Armin Laschet.jpg

Laschet's gaffes during the campaign confirmed doubts about his candidacy that were long-held by people within the CDU/CSU. If the polls and the odds are correct, Laschet has caused Germans who voted for Merkel at successive elections to switch their allegiance to Scholz.

To give a sense of how the CDU/CSU has floundered with Laschet as their candidate: at the last German election in 2017, with Merkel running for a fourth term, the bloc received nearly 33% of the vote. Today, it's polling at 21.

Story of the betting shows extraordinary turnaround

It's been an incredible turnaround in the betting since the campaign got going in the spring. As late as August the SPD was longer than 8/1 to take the most seats - a notoriously difficult task for any group other than the CDU/CSU, which has dominated German politics for two decades.

Two weeks ago, the SPD had shortened to around 1.330/100 to take the most seats. And yet it still seemed like it may be too good to be true for the left. German conservatives were launching last-ditch attempts to undermine Scholz but support for him in the betting has only firmed up.

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Laschet is polling third with the public when it comes to preferred chancellor - behind Scholz and the Greens Annalena Baerbock - but he's still trying to dissuade Germans from voting for the SPD. He claims a Scholz chancellery could de dependent on bringing the more radical leftwing Die Linke into government.

So far, those warnings have failed to cut through and the SPD looks set for its best result for 20 years.

The SPD are 1.241/4 to win the most seats on 26 September while the CDU/CSU are out to 4.57/2.

Does Johnson's reshuffle indicate early election?

Back in the UK, the big news this week was Boris Johnson's cabinet reshuffle which saw the likes of Dominic Raab demoted and Lizz Truss promoted to foreign secretary.

Truss is in to 8.27/1 to be next Conservative leader behind only Michael Gove 8.07/1 and favourite Rishi Sunak 3.55.

Paul Krishnamurty has gone in-depth on the reasons why he believes Johnson's premiership could end by 2024.

That's the year when the next general election is scheduled to take place with 2024 or later 1.728/11 in the Exchange year of next election market.

Boris Johnson fist Hartlepool.jpg

The reshuffle sparked speculation that Johnson will go to the country early with 2023 2.915/8 the most likely year.

That will depend on several factors including how the Conservative perform in the polls over the next 18 months or so. Labour have narrowed the gap on them in recent weeks while no over all majority at the next election 2.226/5 has overtaken the Tory majority 2.35/4 as the favoured outcome.

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