As Bernie Sanders goes odds-on to be the Democratic nominee for president Max Liu discusses the odds on politics in the US, Ireland and UK...
"In Ireland, a coalition of Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Green Party is 2.35/4 in the next government betting while a Fianna Fail minority government is 3.39/4."
Bernie Sanders is 1.9310/11 on the Exchange to be the Democratic nominee for president after he won the Nevada Caucuses on Saturday, taking over 40% of the vote at the current count. The Vermont senator was already the favourite for the nomination but this looks to have been his best victory so far in the contest to take on Donald Trump in November's election.
Sanders is 4.216/5 to be America's next president with Trump 1.674/6 to be re-elected. The self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist is benefiting from the centrist vote being split between his rivals but none of them have so far showed any inclination to drop out of the race and rally around another candidate.
Joe Biden achieved his best result of the campaign, coming second in Nevada. The former-US vice president is 15.5 to win the nomination with Michael Bloomberg 5.24/1, who wasn't on the Nevada ballot due to his late entrance to the contest, and Pete Buttigieg 14.013/1 ahead of him in the Exchange betting.
Elizabeth Warren 160.00159/1, who made the headlines with her performance in the TV debate ahead of yesterday's vote, looks like she's come fourth.
The Nevada caucuses took place at a significant moment in the Democratic primary and, four years ago, they marked the end of the road for Sanders campaign against Hillary Clinton who eventually won the nomination and lost the election to Trump. This time, Sanders looks stronger and he now takes momentum into next weekend's South Carolina primary ahead of the all-important Super Tuesday, on 5 March, when 14 states will vote.
Further ahead, there's 2.56/4 available on the Democrats in the winning party market for November's election, where the Republicans are 1.645/8.
Bettors aren't backing IndyRef2 before 2025
Nicola Sturgeon said today that she intends to stick around as Scottish First minister and plans to "test the limit" of the Scottish parliament's power in court as she tries to deliver another referendum on independence. Bettors aren't convinced that she will get her way, though, as no referendum before 2025 is trading at 2.111/10 on the Exchange.
Boris Johnson is determined not to be the prime minister who presides over the break-up of the UK and has flatly denied Sturgeon's requests for a referendum. Since December's general election, which gave the SNP 48 of Scotland's 59 seats, polling has shown a small majority north of the border in favour of independence. That is said to be fuelled by Scottish remainers who voted against independence in 2014 but are come round to the idea of their country leaving the UK and rejoining the EU.
Sturgeon again argued on Sunday that Scotland, which voted 62% to remain in the 2016 referendum on EU membership, is being taken out of the EU against its will. On Sportsbook you can get even odds on Scots voting to go it alone at the next referendum, indicating that any future vote will be on a knife edge.
Martin favourite to be Irish PM amid deadlock
Micheal Martin is 1.061/18 to become Ireland's next Taoiseach (Irish PM) after Leo Varadkar offered his resignation this week. Martin is the leader of Fianna Fail, the party which won the most seats at the general election two weeks ago.
It was Sinn Fein, however, that took the biggest share of the vote (24.5% compared to Fianna Fail's 22.2%) and, when Irish MPs were asked to vote for Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald had the highest number of votes (45) while Martin polled 41 and Varadkar received 31. A winning candidate needs 80 so they are all a long way off that.
This one could be set to run and run, as it took 70 days for the parties to agree a government structure in 2016. A coalition of Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Green Party is 2.35/4 in the next government betting while a Fianna Fail minority government is 3.39/4.
It's a real mess and a second election in 2020 is not out of the question at 5/4 on the Sportsbook.
In the meantime, Varadkar stays on as Taoiseach in a caretaker capacity.
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