UK General Election: Labour majority backed after West Lancs by-election

Max Liu
10 February 2023
3:00 min read

Labour are odds-on to win the next general election

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Labour majority at the next general shortens on Betfair after West Lancashire by-election sees 10% swing to Keir Starmer's party...

Labour odds-on to win majority
By-election swing spells wipeout for Tories
Sunak 4/1 to leave this year

Labour were 1.618/13 on the Betfair Exchange to win a majority at the next general election after a dramatic swing to them in Thursday's West Lancashire by-election.

It was the third by-election Labour have won since Rishi Sunak became prime minister and, while it was a safe Labour seat, the 10.2% swing to the party will ring alarm bells on Tory benches.

Labour are 1.222/9 on the Exchange to win the most seats at the next general election, which is heavy odds-on to take place next year, and Keir Starmer is 1.444/9 to be the UK's next prime minister.

Tories heading for election disaster

After the win, Starmer said: "The message from West Lancashire today is clear - after 13 years of Tory decline, it's time for a Labour government."

With the UK potentially just 15 months away from a general election it is difficult to argue with Starmer's view.

With Labour polling at around 20 points ahead of the Conservatives our politics expert Paul Krishnamurty wrote this week that the Tories are heading for a worse result than in 1997 at the next election.

No let up in Sunak's struggles

Last night's result adds to the pressure on Sunak as he grapples to connect with the electorate.

He is 5.04/1 to be replaced as Conservative leader this year (they had two changes of leader in 2022) and evens to go in 2024.

The price on a Labour majority has shortened since the beginning of 2023 as a series of scandals have hit the Tory party, resulting in the resignation of Nadhim Zahawi and an investigation into the deputy prime minister Dominic Raab.

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