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UK General Election Constituency Betting: Tories will be eyeing these ten Labour targets

Paul Krishnamurty
21 November 2019

Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson

These Con/Lib marginals will likely determine whether the Tories win a majority

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If the Conservatives gain forty Labour seats they are effectively sure of an overall majority. Paul Krishnamurty analyses those ranked 31-40 on that list by majority...

"Recent polls, whether national or in northern towns, and trends in local politics again make grim reading for her. If the Tories win a majority, this will be one of their gains."

Back Conservatives to win Darlington @ 8/11

Reading East

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This was another massive upset in 2017 as Labour enjoyed a 10% swing from the Tories to regain a seat lost in 2005, despite winning nationally. That turnaround speaks volumes about how party affiliation has changed and in this 62% Remain seat, Brexit certainly appears to have been the spark. Reading East is also much younger than the national average, with large numbers of rentors and therefore hard for the Tories to regain.

Gower

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Gower has produced a big upset in both the last two elections. The Tories won by 27 votes in 2015 before a 3.6% swing to Labour last time. The fact it is a Remain seat (51%) works against the Tories but alternatively in their favour, the population is relatively old, including a very high percentage of homeowners. Tory challenger Francesca O'Brien received national publicity for saying on social media that characters from "Benefits Street" needed 'putting down'.

Blackpool South

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Gordon Marsden has won six times in a row for Labour but his seat has been marginal for the last three elections. His 2017 victory was a surprise given the constituency voted 68% for Leave in the referendum and was probably due to the unpopularity of fracking hurting the Tories. Blackpool has been the site of Britain's worst earth tremors caused by fracking, which may explain Boris Johnson's commitment to temporarily halt it.

Great Grimsby

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According to a new Survation poll, the Tories are leading by 13% in a constituency they haven't won since the 1930s. Those numbers came as no great surprise given this 71% Leave area's long, deep Euroscepticism, dating back to the Cod War during the seventies. The poll also implies that the presence of the Brexit Party in Labour defences is not working against the Tories, as their 17% appears to be hurting incumbent Melanie Onn more.

Darlington

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This railway town has voted Labour since 1992 and defied many predictions it would revert to the Tories after the referendum - Darlington voted 58% to Leave but in the general election, Jenny Chapman slightly improved her majority. Recent polls, whether national or in northern towns, and trends in local politics again make grim reading for her. If the Tories win a majority, this will be one of their gains.

Weaver Vale

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Another impressive Labour gain from 2017 that they will do mighty well to hold in the current environment. Two factors could potentially save Mike Amesbury's near 4,000 majority. First at 51/49 Leave, it is slightly less pro-Brexit than the average constituency. Second this victory was further evidence of a particularly strong Labour swing in the North-West region, including relatively wealthy Cheshire.

Rother Valley

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A Tory gain here, inflicting a first ever defeat to Labour in this seat, could be one of the stories of this election. Rother Valley is an ex-mining constituency, where the Tory brand has historically been largely poisonous, which voted overwhelmingly (67%) to Leave the EU. UKIP scored 28% here in 2015 so the Brexit Party may provide an alternative home to defecting Labour voters. Nine-term MP is Kevin Barron is standing down, too.

Cardiff North

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If looking for places to back Tory gains, it makes sense to search further down the list. Although the most pro-Tory among three Cardiff seats, (they won in 2010 and 2015), Cardiff North swung strongly to Labour by 6% following Brexit. 61% voted to Remain in 2016 and an above average 24% of the population here is under 35. Victory here would imply a big Tory majority.

Bolton North East

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With Labour struggling in Northern towns, Bolton must be rated extremely vulnerable. David Crausby took this marginal in the 1997 landslide and defied many gloomy predictions in the last three elections as his party lost power. The 2017 numbers appear to suggest many defectors came back to Labour from UKIP, who scored 19% in 2015. The presence of the Brexit Party could lure them away again.

Scunthorpe

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Yet another Leave-voting (68%) Northern town with an exclusively Labour-voting history, now in mortal danger to Tory takeover. Lincolnshire has been moving away from the reds for a while at local level but Nic Dakin comfortably held off the challenge in 2015 and 2017. On current polls though, his 3,500 majority looks pretty thin and the Brexit Party could take some of the UKIP-defectors that returned to Labour last time.

For more tips and insight on the Election, check out the Politics...Only Bettor podcast, where Paul joins Betfair trader Joe Lee and The Sun on Sunday's political correspondent Ryan Sabey to discuss all the latest from the campaign trail and the Betfair markets

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.

Recommended bets

Back Conservatives to win Darlington @ 8/11
Back Conservatives to win Bolton North East @ 10/11
Back Conservatives to win Scunthorpe @ 8/11

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