General Election Update: Bettors think Labour's chances slim despite 'radical' manifesto

Labour leader Jerermy Corbyn
Jeremy Corbyn launching Labour's manifesto

Labour promise massive investment for UK infrastructure and services, as well as important policies on climate change, but bettors back a Tory majority, says Max Liu.

"Bettors think the Tories most likely to be in Downing Street on 13 December. They are [1.53] (65% chance) to win a majority and [1.06] to win most seats. Labour by contrast are [42.0] to win a majority and [17.5] to take most seats."

The Conservatives are odds on to win an election majority with Exchange bettors after Labour launched what's being described as their "most radical" manifesto for decades. Jeremy Corbyn has promised an "investment blitz" for all four corners of the UK and vowed to take on tax-dodging big businesses and unscrupulous landlords.

But bettors still think the Tories are most likely to be in Downing Street on 13 December. They are [1.53] (65% chance) to win the majority Boris Johnson craves and [1.06] to win most seats. Labour by contrast are [42.0] to win a majority and [17.5] to take most seats.

The manifesto, which is called "It's Time for Real Change", was launched two days after Corbyn faced Boris Johnson in the first live TV debate of the campaign. The hour long exchange saw both party leaders quizzed and ridiculed by some audience members and, while most snap polls afterwards, showed Corbyn winning the debate, it did little to shift the election odds.

Betfair Spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: "Having launched their manifesto this morning, the Labour party are now full steam ahead to December 12, but they are going to have to do a lot more to convince voters or hope something catastrophic happens with the Tories campaign according to the odds on Betfair Exchange, with punters still heavily backing the Tories in all of the main markets."

Three weeks to go...

With three weeks to go until election day, there is time for voters to read Labour's manifesto and decide what they think of its policies. At the last election in 2017, Labour came from behind in the polls to deny Theresa May a majority and their manifesto was the turning point, because it gave voters a chance to see what the party were offering.

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If the polls are correct this time, though, the deficit is considerable, ahead by an average of around 16 points and that's reflected in the odds. In the Exchange's Next Government market, a Tory majority is the strong favourite with a Labour minority its closest runner at [7.2] and a Tory minority [8.0].

Bettors think a coalition government unlikely but at [38.0] a Conservative/Brexit Party pact is the shortest in the betting at present.

Max Liu,

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