General Election 2019: Tory majority at shortest odds in two years

Number Ten Downing Street
The race for number ten is reaching its conclusion

A Conservative majority is trading at its lowest price for two years on the Betfair Exchange ahead of Thursday's general election, reports Max Liu...

"Once Nigel Farage announced his Brexit Party candidates would not oppose in Tory seats, Boris Johnson and his party have seen their odds continue to shorten."

With just three days to go before polling day bettors makes the Conservatives a 79% chance to win a majority. Boris Johnson's party are 1/41.26 on the Betfair Exchange to take 326 seats - the magic number needed for a majority in the House of Commons - or more on Thursday.

They started the weekend at 2/51.4 but have shortened to their current odds as the campaign enters its final days before voting. On Sunday, no over all majority - which would leave the UK with a hung parliament - was trading at 16/54.2 but the odds on that happening have drifted 4/15.1. A Labour majority, meanwhile, is out to 59/160.0.

UK politics has been an unpredictable affair in recent years and the Exchange odds have reflected that. Our graph tracks the way the odds on the election outcome have fluctuated since the market opened in 2017:

GE 2019 Overall Majority Nov 17-Dec 19.png

When the Election was called in October, no overall majority was odds-on and the Tories had a battle on their hands, according to punters.

However, once Nigel Farage announced his Brexit Party candidates would not oppose in Tory seats, Boris Johnson and his party have seen their odds continue to shorten, as the following graph, which tracks changes in the odds since the election was called, demontrates:

GE 2019 Overall MAjority December 9.png

But if there's one thing that the last few years in British politics have taught us, it's that nothing is ever certain and we will be watching those exit polls and first seats very closely when they come in on Thursday night.

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