Brexit Latest: UK not to leave EU by March deadline now heavy odds-on

Theresa May
Theresa May under pressure ahead of the vote on the withdrawal deal on Tuesday
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Ahead of Tuesday's crucial House of Commons Vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal, odds of the UK not leaving on March 29 have tumbled to their shortest odds yet on the Exchange...

"In the last week we've seen the odds of the UK not to leave by the deadline tumble to odds-on at 1/4, the shortest we have seen."

'No' in the UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019? is now [1.27] having traded at a high of [3.45] with little hope that MPs will back Theresa May's withdrawal agreement - it's [1.04] not to be passed.

The Prime Minister is now [3.6] to leave her post before the end of March, with Boris Johnson and Sajid Javid the favourites to replace her as Tory leader, trading around the [8.0] mark.

Betfair Spokeswoman Katie Baylis said: "With Theresa May's deal not expected to be voted through tomorrow - it's now just 1/20 to be rejected - attention is starting to turn to what that will happen next, with a big question mark over whether we will even be in a position to leave by the March 29 deadline.

"In the last week we've seen the odds of the UK not to leave by the deadline tumble to odds-on at 1/4, the shortest we have seen."

"Odds of an election in 2019 are now at 7/5, with Jeremy Corbyn - who has been campaigning heavily for that to happen - the 5/1 favourite for next PM.

"With plenty of support for the campaign for another EU referendum, it's now just 15/8 the country will have another vote this year, in what would surely be one of the biggest political turnarounds in British, if not global history."

Latest Exchange odds on Brexit

House of Commons to pass Brexit deal at 1st meaningful vote

No - 1/20 (95% likelihood)
Yes - 19/1 (5%)

UK to leave EU by 29/03/19

No - 1/4 (78% likelihood)
Yes - 7/2 - (22%)

Another EU referendum before 2020

No - 1/2 (66% likelihood)
Yes - 15/8 (34%)

Theresa May Exit Dates

Jan 2019 - Mar 2019 - 14/5
Apr 2019 - Jun 2019 - 7/2
Jul 2019 - Sep 2019 - 7/1
Oct 2019 - Dec 2019 - 8/1
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020 - 10/1
Apr 2020 - Jun 2020 - 13/1
July 2020 or later - 7/2

Next Conservative Party Leader

Boris Johnson 7/1
Sajid Javid 7/1
Dominic Raab 10/1
Jeremy Hunt 11/1
Michael Gove 13/1
Amber Rudd 16/1

Year of next general election

2019 - 7/5
2020 - 11/2
2021 - 7/1
2022 - 2/1

Prime Minister after Theresa May

Jeremy Corbyn - 5/1
Boris Johnson - 15/2
Sajid Javid - 8/1
Dominic Raab - 11/1
Michael Gove - 11/1
Jeremy Hunt - 14/1

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