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European Elections provide fresh headache for May</h1> <ul class="entry_header__meta"> <li><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/authors/max-liu/">Max Liu</a></li> <li><time datetime="2019-04-14">14 April 2019</time></li> </ul> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Brexit Latest: European Elections provide fresh headache for May", "name": "Brexit Latest: European Elections provide fresh headache for May", "description": "Theresa May has got her Brexit deadline extension but the pressure is still on the Prime Minister with the UK all but certain to hold European Elections, say...", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/politics/brexit/brexit-latest-betting-tips-predictions-european-elections-140419-204.html", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://betting.betfair.com/politics/brexit/brexit-latest-betting-tips-predictions-european-elections-140419-204.html", "datePublished": "2019-04-14T13:44:00+01:00", "dateModified": "2019-04-14T13:25:00+01:00", "articleBody": "Theresa May has got her Brexit deadline extension but the pressure is still on the Prime Minister with the UK all but certain to hold European Elections, says Max Liu. The UK is [1.08] to hold European Parliament elections on 23 May following the European Union's decision to grant a Brexit delay until Halloween. Theresa May was relieved that the EU agreed this week that the UK could delay Brexit and avoid leaving with no deal - a possibility that is now out to [8.0] on the Exchange. The Prime Minister is under no illusions, however, about the enormous challenges still facing her and European Council President Donald Tusk was keen to convey to May that the pressure is still on when, after agreeing the extension, he said: "Please don't waste this time." Odds shorten on no Brexit before 2022 Talks are continuing between the government and Labour, as they try to reach an agreement that would help May get her Brexit withdrawal deal through parliament, and bettors think that could happen this year at [1.57]. Alternatively, you can get [2.66] on it not happening. In the Brexit date market, July to December is the new favourite at [2.82] - which is what you'd expect as it's government policy - but the real story in this market is the steady shortening of the odds-on no Brexit before 2022 [3.2]. Combine that with a gutsy bet on Article 50 to be revoked at [3.2] and one day it might be time to crack open the celebratory Prosecco. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The new doom date looming on the horizon for May - following 29 March and 12 April - is 23 May when European elections will be held in all EU member countries. UK legally obliged to hold European elections David Lidington, the de facto deputy PM, summed up the government's European elections quandary on Sunday when he was asked by Andrew Marr if they would go head in the UK. "I hope not," Lidington said before mumbling something about May trying to get her deal through the British parliament by 22 May in order to avoid the country having to take part in the EU vote the following day. Finally, though, Lidington conceded that, as long as Britain is in the EU, it has a legal obligation to hold elections to the parliament in Brussels. So what are the Tories to do about this? Boris Johnson has already said he will essentially boycott the European elections by refusing to campaign in the run up. That stance should play well with his party's Brexiteer base, as Johnson [6.0] tries to win their support in his bid to be the Tories' next leader. New parties will relish European Elections The European election odds already make grim reading for the Tories. They will be by no means straightforward for Labour, whose leader in the European Parliament today called for Jeremy Corbyn to unequivocally back a second Brexit referendum, but Labour are still 10/11 favourites to win most seats and YouGov have them taking 24% of the vote in their latest poll: EU Parliament voting intention (10-11 April)Lab - 24%Con - 16%Brexit Party- 15%UKIP - 14%Lib Dem - 8%Green - 8%Change UK - 7%SNP/Plaid - 6%Other - 1%https://t.co/pBf5y4x77V pic.twitter.com/LXYVLT8hXS&mdash; YouGov (@YouGov) April 13, 2019 The parties that will really relish elections on 23 May are Nigel Farage's newly-launched Brexit Party. The poll above shows them coming third but, at 5/4, the odds indicate they can do better than that and might emerge as the UK's second largest party in the European Parliament - an outcome Tusk and co. will dread. Change UK (formerly TIG) 25/1, meanwhile, come from the opposite side of the Brexit debate but will use the elections as an opportunity to raises their profile. The Lib Dems are 33/1 to win most seats, but they will also see the campaign as a good chance to promote their pro-Remain position. Australia names election date Finally a segue from this blasted island with the news that Australia, where voting is compulsory, will hold federal elections on Saturday May 18. Prime Minister Scott Morrison's governing coalition are in big trouble, and bettors make them as long as [5.2] to win, with the opposition Labor party into [1.2] this week, although polls earlier this week put the parties 48 to 52 respectively. Aussie politics is fairly volatile and it could be closer than current Exchange odds indicate, so worth keeping an eye on developments over the next month. ", "image":[ "https://betting.cdnppb.net/politics/May in Brussels 956.728x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/politics/May in Brussels 956.547x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/politics/May in Brussels 956.410x410.jpg" ], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Betting.Betfair", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://betting.cdnppb.net/assets/img/betfairlogoblack.ea48b4e0.png" }, "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Max Liu", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/authors/max_liu" } } </script> </header> <div class="two_column_layout"> <main class="entry_main"> <div class="entry_img"> <img src="//betting.cdnppb.net/politics/May in Brussels 956.728x410.jpg" srcset="//betting.cdnppb.net/politics/May in Brussels 956.450x253.jpg 450w, //betting.cdnppb.net/politics/May in Brussels 956.600x338.jpg 600w, //betting.cdnppb.net/politics/May in Brussels 956.728x410.jpg 728w" alt="UK Prime Minister Theresa May"> <figcaption class="entry_img__caption">Putting on a brave face - May in Brussels this week</figcaption> </div> <div class="entry_actions"> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBGC01B10G30A&prod=90&rfr=2573">Join</a> </div> <div> <a class="button btn--market" data-market_full="https://btfr.co/sbkevent/com/politics/28180290" href="https://btfr.co/sbkevent/com/politics/28180290">View market</a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--twitter"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?text=Brexit%20Latest%3A%20European%20Elections%20provide%20fresh%20headache%20for%20May&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fbrexit%2Fbrexit-latest-betting-tips-predictions-european-elections-140419-204.html" target="_blank" title="Twitter"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--twitter">Twitter</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--facebook"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fbrexit%2Fbrexit-latest-betting-tips-predictions-european-elections-140419-204.html" target="_blank" title="Facebook"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--facebook">Facebook</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--reddit"> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/submit/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fbrexit%2Fbrexit-latest-betting-tips-predictions-european-elections-140419-204.html" target="_blank" title="Reddit"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--reddit">Reddit</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--whatsapp"> <a href="https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fbrexit%2Fbrexit-latest-betting-tips-predictions-european-elections-140419-204.html" target="_blank" title="WhatsApp"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--whatsapp">WhatsApp</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--telegram"> <a href="https://t.me/share/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fbrexit%2Fbrexit-latest-betting-tips-predictions-european-elections-140419-204.html&text=Brexit%20Latest%3A%20European%20Elections%20provide%20fresh%20headache%20for%20May" target="_blank" title="Telegram"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--telegram">Telegram</span></a> </div> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="#betslip">View the Betslip</a> </div> </div> <div class="entry_body has-odds"> <div class="entry_body__intro"><p><strong>Theresa May has got her Brexit deadline extension but the pressure is still on the Prime Minister with the UK all but certain to hold European Elections, says Max Liu.</strong></p></div> <div class="entry_body__quote"> <blockquote><p>"The parties that will really relish elections on 23 May are <strong>Nigel Farage's</strong> newly-launched <strong>Brexit Party</strong>. The poll above shows them coming third but, at <strong>5/4</strong>, the odds indicate they can do better."</p></blockquote> </div> <div class="entry_body__content"> <div class="editor"> <p>The UK is <strong><span><b class="inline_odds" title="1/12"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.08</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/12</span></b> to hold European Parliament elections on 23 May</span></strong> following the European Union's decision to grant a Brexit delay until Halloween. <p>Theresa May was relieved that the EU agreed this week that the UK could delay Brexit and avoid leaving with no deal - a possibility that is now out to <strong><span><b class="inline_odds" title="7/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">8.0</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">7/1</span></b></span></strong> on the Exchange. </p><p>The Prime Minister is under no illusions, however, about the enormous challenges still facing her and European Council President <strong>Donald Tusk</strong> was keen to convey to May that the pressure is still on when, after agreeing the extension, he said: "Please don't waste this time." </p><p><strong><h2>Odds shorten on no Brexit before 2022</h2></strong></p><p>Talks are continuing between the government and Labour, as they try to reach an agreement that would help May get her Brexit withdrawal deal through parliament, and bettors think that could happen this year at <strong><span><b class="inline_odds" title="4/7"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.57</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/7</span></b></span></strong>. Alternatively, you can get <b class="inline_odds" title="13/8"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.66</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">13/8</span></b> on it not happening. </p><p>In the Brexit date market, <strong><span>July to December is the new favourite at <b class="inline_odds" title="9/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.82</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">9/5</span></b></span></strong> - which is what you'd expect as it's government policy - but the real story in this market is the steady shortening of the odds-on <strong><span>no Brexit before 2022 <b class="inline_odds" title="11/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">3.2</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">11/5</span></b></span></strong>. Combine that with a gutsy bet on <strong><span>Article 50 to be revoked at <b class="inline_odds" title="11/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">3.2</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">11/5</span></b></span></strong> and one day it might be time to crack open the celebratory Prosecco. </p><p>But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The new doom date looming on the horizon for May - following 29 March and 12 April - is <strong>23 May</strong> when European elections will be held in all EU member countries. </p><p><strong><h2>UK legally obliged to hold European elections</h2></strong></p><p><strong>David Lidington</strong>, the de facto deputy PM, summed up the government's European elections quandary on Sunday when he was asked by Andrew Marr if they would go head in the UK. </p><p><strong>"I hope not,"</strong> Lidington said before mumbling something about May trying to get her deal through the British parliament by 22 May in order to avoid the country having to take part in the EU vote the following day. </p><p>Finally, though, Lidington conceded that, as long as Britain is in the EU, it has a <strong>legal obligation</strong> to hold elections to the parliament in Brussels.</p><p>So what are the Tories to do about this? <strong>Boris Johnson</strong> has already said he will essentially boycott the European elections by <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/103229/tory-brexiteer-boris-johnson-will-refuse-campaign">refusing to campaign</a> in the run up. That stance should play well with his party's Brexiteer base, as <strong><span>Johnson <b class="inline_odds" title="5/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">6.0</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">5/1</span></b></span></strong> tries to win their support in his bid to be the Tories' next leader. </p><p><strong><h2>New parties will relish European Elections</h2></strong></p><p><img alt="Farage 956.jpg" src="//betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Farage%20956.600x338.jpg" width="956" height="538" class="mt-image-none" style loading="lazy"></p><p>The European election odds already make grim reading for the Tories. They will be by no means straightforward for Labour, whose leader in the European Parliament today called for Jeremy Corbyn to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/13/corbyn-told-back-eu-referendum-or-lose-millions-voters-brexit">unequivocally back a second Brexit referendum</a>, but Labour are still <strong><a href="https://btfr.co/sbkevent/com/politics/28180290">10/11 favourites to win most seats</a></strong> and YouGov have them taking 24% of the vote in their latest poll:</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">EU Parliament voting intention (10-11 April)<br><br>Lab - 24%<br>Con - 16%<br>Brexit Party- 15%<br>UKIP - 14%<br>Lib Dem - 8%<br>Green - 8%<br>Change UK - 7%<br>SNP/Plaid - 6%<br>Other - 1%<a href="https://t.co/pBf5y4x77V">https://t.co/pBf5y4x77V</a> <a href="https://t.co/LXYVLT8hXS">pic.twitter.com/LXYVLT8hXS</a></p>? YouGov (@YouGov) <a href="https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1116981750083801088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 13, 2019</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p>The parties that will really relish elections on 23 May are <strong>Nigel Farage's</strong> newly-launched <strong>Brexit Party</strong>. The poll above shows them coming third but, at <strong>5/4</strong>, the odds indicate they can do better than that and might emerge as the UK's second largest party in the European Parliament - an outcome Tusk and co. will dread. </p><p><strong>Change UK</strong> (formerly TIG) 25/1, meanwhile, come from the opposite side of the Brexit debate but will use the elections as an opportunity to raises their profile. The <strong>Lib Dems</strong> are 33/1 to win most seats, but they will also see the campaign as a good chance to promote their pro-Remain position. </p><p><strong><h2>Australia names election date</h2></strong></p><p>Finally a segue from this blasted island with the news that <strong>Australia</strong>, where voting is compulsory, will hold federal elections on <strong>Saturday May 18</strong>. </p><p>Prime Minister <strong>Scott Morrison's</strong> governing coalition are in big trouble, and bettors make them as long as <b class="inline_odds" title="4/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">5.2</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/1</span></b> to win, with the opposition <strong><span>Labor party into <b class="inline_odds" title="1/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.2</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/5</span></b></span></strong> this week, although <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2019/apr/09/the-guardian-essential-report-9-april-results">polls earlier this week</a> put the parties 48 to 52 respectively. </p><p>Aussie politics is fairly volatile and it could be <strong>closer</strong> than current Exchange odds indicate, so worth keeping an eye on developments over the next month.<br> </p></p> </div> </div> <section class="betting_copy"> <div class="editor"> <h2 class="promo-name bf-sportsbook" data-qa="promo-name">Refer & Earn with Betfair</h2> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description "><header></header> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description"> <p><span>For each person you <strong>successfully refer </strong>to Betfair, we'll give you <strong>£10 in CASH</strong> when they stake £10 or more on the Sportsbook, Exchange or Casino. <a href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=CACQRAEAUTOUKIE1">T&Cs apply.</a></span></p> </div> </section> </div> </section> </div> 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