Brexit: Exchange market on course to break all political betting records

Editor
27 April 2016

Boris Johnson's 'part Kenyan' attack on Barack Obama hasn't helped the Brexiters' cause

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Betfair's 'Brexit' market has exploded into life this week with just under £4m matched between customers in the last seven days. This brings the total traded in the market to £8m...

• Eight million pounds traded on the Betfair Exchange EU Referendum Market to date
• Four million pounds traded in the past week
• Momentum firmly behind a vote to ‘Remain’ in the EU

'Remain' has now been backed into a heavy 2/5 favourite, odds implying a 71% chance to win, while Brexit has weakened to a 12/5 outsider, representing a 29% chance to win.

While there have been six figure bets on either side, 69% of all individual trades are on Remain, with the biggest standing to win £200,000 should the UK vote to stay in the EU.

The catalyst to recent activity has been the visit of Barack Obama; the US President's comments about Britain's weaker position outside of Europe led to a flurry of trading last weekend - more of which here. This momentum has continued this week with several big individual trades of up to £315,000 being placed by customers via Betfair's brokerage team.

At its current rate, the market could beat Betfair's previous traded volume for a single political event (£40m for the 2012 US Presidential Election)

The current odds of "Remain" mirror those of the eventual "No" vote in the Scottish Referendum at a similar stage.

Naomi Totten, Betfair spokeswoman, said: "Remain was already a strong favourite before Barack Obama's visit, implying a 66% chance to win, but his comments sparked another wave of trading over the weekend with Remain backed as low as 1/3, which implies a 75% chance.

"The level of interest is unprecedented, it's seen six-times more trading than the Scottish referendum at a similar point, and we're seeing a steady stream of big punters requesting six-figure trades from our brokerage team.

"As it stands, the market could eclipse Betfair's [£40m] record for traded volume for a single political market. We've seen £8m matched to date and trading typically accelerates much closer to the event."

EU Referendum Result

- In favour of staying in EU 1.42/5 (2/5 or a 71% likelihood)
- In favour of leaving EU 3.412/5 (12/5 or a 29% likelihood)

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