Brexit: Exchange market on course to break all political betting records

Boris Johnson's 'part Kenyan' attack on Barack Obama hasn't helped the Brexiters' cause
Boris Johnson's 'part Kenyan' attack on Barack Obama hasn't helped the Brexiters' cause

Betfair's 'Brexit' market has exploded into life this week with just under £4m matched between customers in the last seven days. This brings the total traded in the market to £8m...

• Eight million pounds traded on the Betfair Exchange EU Referendum Market to date
• Four million pounds traded in the past week
• Momentum firmly behind a vote to ‘Remain’ in the EU

'Remain' has now been backed into a heavy 2/5 favourite, odds implying a 71% chance to win, while Brexit has weakened to a 12/5 outsider, representing a 29% chance to win.

While there have been six figure bets on either side, 69% of all individual trades are on Remain, with the biggest standing to win £200,000 should the UK vote to stay in the EU.

The catalyst to recent activity has been the visit of Barack Obama; the US President's comments about Britain's weaker position outside of Europe led to a flurry of trading last weekend - more of which here. This momentum has continued this week with several big individual trades of up to £315,000 being placed by customers via Betfair's brokerage team.

At its current rate, the market could beat Betfair's previous traded volume for a single political event (£40m for the 2012 US Presidential Election)

The current odds of "Remain" mirror those of the eventual "No" vote in the Scottish Referendum at a similar stage.

Naomi Totten, Betfair spokeswoman, said: "Remain was already a strong favourite before Barack Obama's visit, implying a 66% chance to win, but his comments sparked another wave of trading over the weekend with Remain backed as low as 1/3, which implies a 75% chance.

"The level of interest is unprecedented, it's seen six-times more trading than the Scottish referendum at a similar point, and we're seeing a steady stream of big punters requesting six-figure trades from our brokerage team.

"As it stands, the market could eclipse Betfair's [£40m] record for traded volume for a single political market. We've seen £8m matched to date and trading typically accelerates much closer to the event."

EU Referendum Result

- In favour of staying in EU 1.42/5 (2/5 or a 71% likelihood)
- In favour of leaving EU 3.412/5 (12/5 or a 29% likelihood)

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