Pud's Poker Progress / Matthew Pitt / 08 March 2009 /

My daily routine sees me read literally dozens of blogs and several forums and a common theme in posts and entries is the dreaded variance in poker. My first instinct when I see someone writing about being hit by variance is they are using it as a cover for poor plays they have made in their game but after the goings on of the past few days, my view has definitely changed.

When you're playing nine tables simultaneously and not playing in sets, instead loading up a new table as one closes, it is very difficult to see your exit hand. You push your money in, see you win or lose and move on

I'm an intelligent guy and realise variance can and will break a player. I have been through times where nothing I do seems to work, flushes hit against me, that sort of thing but usually in small spells and nothing on a scale that I saw last week!

I started off playing some HUSNG and basically cleaned up with an ROI of 16% over 60 games and all was well with the world. Then the Poker Gods (amen) decided it would be a good idea to show me just how brutal they could be if they so wished and I proceeded to run terribly and I lost six of my next seven games, just as I moved up in stakes. Nice!

Worse was to come as I played some 6max SnG for a change of pace. At first I was a touch rusty as I'd played HU for so long but I soon slipped back into the grove and felt comfortable playing nine tables at once. However, Lady Variance did not like my comfort zone and opted to put me on the worst run I have ever been on!

Over the course of two days I managed to play 99 of these 6max games and to say I was kicked in the teeth is an understatement. At first I thought my bubble play, which is usually solid, was off after I checked my stats and saw I had bubbled 32 times from 99 games! I then started to analyse hands played around the bubble and was totally taken aback.

When you're playing nine tables simultaneously and not playing in sets, instead loading up a new table as one closes, it is very difficult to see your exit hand. You push your money in, see you win or lose and move on, so if you are doing this I beg of you to check your hand histories on a regular basis.

I found I had run my premium pairs into higher pairs on a regular basis, with Aces being the pair of choice to bust me. Upon looking deeper I also discovered that getting my money in good did not seem to work either. AK vs A2 and a two would bink on the river. Tens in against eights and low and behold and lovely snowman would appear on the board! I fill my boat, they quad up!

All in all I lost $30,228 in chips but if I went on my Chip Expected Value (cEV) then I should have actually won $3,223.53! For those of you who can't be bothered to do the math, that is a difference of $33,451.53 chips or 16.7 full stacks of 2k chips! I know it was only a sample of 99 games over two games but it still goes to prove how vicious variance really can be over the small term.

Thankfully I was playing massively over rolled, having over 300 buy-ins behind me but I still managed to lose a percentage of my bankroll, especially when the run continued into some cash games too. Not the best start to March but as poker player I expect to have bad times so that I can enjoy the good times. Let's hope the heater I am due to even things out takes place when I take a shot at a big MTT!

As always, thanks for reading and best of luck at the tables!

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