Tour de France Betting Tips: Take speculative punt on 799/1 Fuglsang for Stage 1 surprise

• Tadej Pogacar (3.55/2) is capable but must surely be more conservative

• Favouritism should belong to Wout van Aert (10.09/1) who is perfectly suited to course

• Outsider like Bettiol (20.019/1) and Fuglsang (800.0799/1) worth interest on likely cagey day

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What's the stage like?

Classified as a medium mountain stage, the 206km from Florence to Rimini - visiting San Marino on route - is one of the toughest starts to the Tour is recent memory, with a touch of the Liege-Baston-Liege one-day race about it

There are seven categorised climbs dotted along the Apennine route, all of them short, steep tests. The opening climb to Col de Valico Tre Faggi looks the toughest, but it's the triplet of climbs in the last 50km that will prove decisive.

Should a group still be together on the final Côte de San Marino, they will face an aggressive descent before a 15 kilometres flat run-in to the line.

Who are the favourites?

Liege-Baston Liege has been won by far-out swashbuckling solo attacks in the last three years, but surely the deliverers of those wins - Tadej Pogacar (3.55/2) and Remco Evenepoel (21.020/1) - are going to be more conservative on day one of 21?

Either are certainly capable of a win, and Pogacar - especially - continues to demonstrate a wanton disregard for what most consider sensible decision making in grand tours, so he might well go for it, but the value bets probably lie elsewhere.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Multi-talented Wout van Aert (10.09/1) seems to be coming back into form after his crash at Dwars door Vlaanderen, and should probably be the favourite here. He has won several races with profiles like this, and if he can get over the final climb whilst still in contention, he will be hard to beat.

At bigger odds, Alberto Bettiol (20.019/1) will be motivated to follow-up on his recent win at the Italian National Championships by claiming the Yellow Jersey on the first ever Grand Depart from his homeland. He's in form, the course will suit, and he's worth having an interest in.

A speculative punt, perhaps, but veteran Jakob Fuglsang (800.0799/1) is worth an interest at over-generous odds. He won Liege-Baston-Liege in 2019 and can benefit from the relative anonymity of his pensioner status.

How will it affect the overall markets?

Given doubts about the fitness of several General Classification contenders, expect the more confident teams - like UAE and Ineos - to be pushing the pace. Expect, too, that the odd rider may crack and lose time. We won't be able to declare the Tour winner after this stage, but we should be able to cross a couple out.

With lots of points available in the Mountains Classification, keep an eye on the breakaway inhabitants: this will give the first clues around rider intentions, and whether the pre-Tour advice remains solid.

Likewise, the Points Classification. With two climbs to tackle before the intermediate sprint, we will know a lot about the intentions of the likes of Mads Pedersen. If he is to beat a out-an-out sprinter to the green jersey, he will need to be taking points on days like this.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

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