Tour de France Betting Tips: Stevie Williams at 49/1 can surprise favourites on open Stage 2

• Tadej Pogacar (3.02/1) looks short in early exchanges

• Wout van Aert (12.011/1) showed his form on Stage 1

• Stevie Williams (50.049/1) will like course

• Use Betfair's Safer Gambling during the 2024 Tour de France

What's the stage like?

200km to Bologna that ends with an 18km finishing circuit ridden twice. The first third of the stage is unremarkable, before a series of six categorised climbs. All of them are short, but will require punch to deal with the gradients. The Cote de San Luca, ridden twice, is only 1.9km long but averages a 10.6% gradient, making the stage hard to read: one for the climbers, or one for aggressive one-day specialists? It's open, so keep stakes small.

Who are the favourites?

After a frustrating Stage 1, with misjudgements by the peloton costing us a 9/1 win, we have at least learned that recommended bet Wout van Aert is in fine form, and the 12.011/1 available early here again looks value.

Market favourite in the early exchanges, though, is Tadej Pogacar (3.02/1). His fourth on the opening stage showed that his Covid scare was as insignificant as he'd reported, and he seems to have entered the Tour with the same attitude he displayed at the Giro: try and win everything. He is likely to be outgunned by more powerful riders here, however, and I expect those odds to drift.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Mathieu van der Poel (22.021/1), who hasn't raced since the spring classics, is a massive price - presumably because he looked under par on Stage 1 and the course is on the hillier end of what he thrives on. Those odds might look big by day's end.

Alberto Bettiol (40.039/1) will love to claim a stage win on home territory, and similar riders like Mads Pedersen (40.039/1), Tom Piddock (20.019/1), and Michael Matthews (80.079/1) all have valid claims.

The outsider choice, however, is Stevie Williams (50.049/1). His win in April at La Flèche Wallonne, over a similar route to this, and his strong form at the Tour de Suisse, puts him in with a solid chance at decent odds.

How will it affect the overall markets?

There are Mountains Classification points to pick up on route, and watching the breakaway will further cement ideas about who is targeting the polka-dot jersey.

Those interested in the Points Classification who will struggle with the climbing in this stage will be active in the intermediate sprint.

As for the Yellow Jersey contenders, there are unlikely to be significant time gaps, but all will be keen to be near the front for fear of crashes and a rival stealing a march.

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