Tour de France Betting Tips: Cavendish at 23/1 can surprise favourites on long and flat Stage 3

• Jasper Philipsen (1.804/5) is rightful favourite but poor value

• Dylan Groenewegen (8.007/1) still has it to prove at top level

• Arnaud De Lie (18.017/1) looked hard to beat in Nationals

• Mark Cavendish (24.023/1) is now on the terrain where he thrives

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What's the stage like?

Long. The longest of this year's Tour, in fact. 231 ceaseless kilometres heading for Turin. Provided the sprint teams are organised and can control any breakaway, this should end in a bunch finish. Riders must take two sharp left-handers with around a kilometre to go, before a straight, flat burnup towards the Olympic Stadium, where the presumptive best sprinter of the Tour should stand atop the podium.

Who are the favourites?

Jasper Philipsen (1.804/5). With six stage victories in the Tour, the best sprinter of the last two seasons is the rightful favourite. But he hasn't been at his best in the last month, managing only one stage win in the Belgium Tour, and missing out at the Belgium National Championships. It would be no surprise to see him win, but those odds are short.

Dylan Groenewegen (8.007/1) seems to be coming back to the sort of form that made him the best sprinter in the world a few seasons ago. His win in the Dutch National Championships last week shows that he is peaking at the right time, but his opposition there wasn't the absolute best, so he's one to watch, rather than back.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

I've tipped Wout van Aert (12.011/1) on Stage 1, and Stage 2 - where he crashed - so whilst he's capable of winning this, those odds are not especially generous, particularly as he prefers sprints coming at the end of harder days.

A case can be made for Phil Bauhaus (30.029/1), Alexander Kristoff (40.039/1) and Arnaud Demare (40.039/1), but the best value lies in Arnaud De Lie (18.017/1) and Mark Cavendish (24.023/1).

De Lie won that Belgium National Championships and looked imperious, with none of his competitors - even Philipsen - able to come off his wheel and challenge.

And Cavendish, for all the media frenzy around his struggles on the first two stages, is here to win sprint stages, not win medals for bravery when the course turns up hill and down dale. Expect to see the wily Cavendish of old on the run-in to Turin.

How will it affect the overall markets?

Largely a day off for the Mountains Classification and the Yellow Jersey hopefuls, but by the end of the stage we should know more about the intentions of sprinters in relation to the Points Classification.

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