Tour de France Betting Tips: Back Pogacar at 9/2 for accidental polka-dot win

• Tadej Pogacar is odds-on value at 1.674/6

• His competitors wreak of injury and poor form

• Carlos Rodriguez (75.074/1) can capitalise if fatigue does for Pogacar

• Use Betfair's Safer Gambling during the 2024 Tour de France

What's the route like?

Unpredictable and stressful for the Yellow Jersey hopefuls.

Starting in Italy - for the first time in the race's history - on Saturday 29^th June, it's not as obviously hard as last year's Tour, but still contains a fifth more climbing than this year's Giro d'Italia.

For the General Classification (GC) contenders, the biggest challenge might be how frequently the hard stages arrive. In most years, those with designs on the Yellow Jersey tend to see their big days come in clumps, with multiple stages in between where they merely have to avoid calamity whilst they let the other riders get on with the racing.

Not so in 2024. Stage 1 is likely to see time gaps; major climbing comes on Stage 4; and then barely a day passes when the Yellow Jersey hopefuls can switch off. Any riders planning to ride themselves into fitness on this Tour, or who struggle to maintain their form over three weeks, would do better to target another race.

There are two individual time trials - one not flat, the other decidedly hilly. The second of these comes on the last stage of the Tour, which breaks with tradition by finishing in Nice, avoiding the Olympics circus in Paris.

The biggest novelty comes on Stage 9, though, when riders will be asked to tackle 14 gravel sections on a near-200km hilly day. Expect hard-luck stories.

Who are the main favourites?

Despite what the media is suggesting, there's only really one favourite, and that's the superhuman phenom, Tadej Pogacar (1.674/6).

Twice a winner of the Tour, Pogacar has been in breathtaking form this season, winning Strade Bianche (on gravel roads), Volta Catalunya, Liege-Baston-Liege, and the Giro d'Italia: by nearly 10 minutes, the biggest winning margin since 1965.

True, the field at the Giro wasn't the most competitive. And true, there are valid concerns about how a rider can recover from three weeks of hard racing and peak again for the Tour de France that comes fewer than five weeks later. But then again, despite the big names that are due to start the race on Saturday, they might not be well positioned to provide much opposition either.

Even at those short odds, he looks value, although I'll stop short of making it a recommended bet.

Who are the outside bets?

Jonas Vingegaard (4.1), the winner of the last two editions and a superhuman himself, is in no way a viable betting proposition. An horrific crash at the Tour of the Basque Country saw him carted away with a collapsed lung, broken ribs, a broken collarbone, and presumable a whole host of body-wrecking bruising. Social media updates suggest he has been training hard, and his team say he will be "competitive", but quite what this means is uncertain. It feels like he can only win if Pogacar seriously underperforms or crashes.

Primoz Roglic (15.5) and Remco Evenepoel (30.029/1) were involved in that same Basque crash. Roglic seemed the least hurt, but although he won the recent Dauphine - a key warm-up race for the Tour - he was flagging on the final stage and did not look like a rider about to peak for three weeks of hard racing.

Evenepoel sustained a broken collarbone and shoulder blade and was similarly uninspiring at the Dauphine, although in fairness to him he seemed little interested in contesting the outright win. He did, though, perform superbly in the time trial there and this year's route will suit him better than most of his rivals, containing the time trials. There remains doubt about his ability to be consistent across three weeks, though. It was only Roglic's departure from the race that handed him his 2022 Vuelta win and it feels like he would need even greater fortune to triumph here.

If you're determined to find a longer-odds option to cause a shock should Pogacar fail to deliver, there are a host of nearly-men to consider. A case can be made for Enric Mas (500.0499/1), Richard Carapaz (540.0539/1), Egan Bernal (180.0179/1) and Geraint Thomas (100.099/1), but it does require some creative thinking to create the scenario where any of them would wear Yellow in Nice.

One exception might be Carlos Rodriguez (75.074/1). He'll relish the high altitudes of this year's route, has ridden well in Romandie, Basque Country, and at the Dauphine this year, and is young enough at 23 to suggest there is more improvement to come.

Who will win the other jerseys?

The polka-dot jersey of the Mountains Classification is always a tricky betting proposition, because its winner has more to do with rider intent than climbing prowess, with the victor often being the rider who is freed by their team to pursue it. Usually, I would advise waiting before getting involved in the market, allowing those intentions to become clearer. This year, though, backing Tadej Pogacar at 5.59/2 for the spots might be the best value pre-Tour bet. With crucial summit finishes and bonus seconds available atop other big climbs, there's a strong chance he could win it by accident.

The green jersey of the Points Classification is normally won by a sprinter, and on first glance the field looks stacked, with most of top names of the last few seasons lining up, with the exceptions of Tim Merlier and Jonathan Milan.

But not unlike the GC battle, there is a sense that many of them aren't bringing their top form. Jasper Philipsen keeps being beaten of late, Dylan Groenewegen won the Dutch championships but has yet to regain his dominance of a few seasons back, Fabio Jakobsen has had a poor couple of years, Sam Bennett failed to follow up on his brilliant 2020 tour, Arnaud Demare is very much on the comeback trail, and Sir Mark Cavendish is clearly capable of winning but has only won two relatively minor races this season.

The in-form fast men look to be Phil Bauhaus, Arnaud De Lie, and Mads Pedersen, and Wout van Aert's form in the Tour of Norway suggests he will be contesting the bunch sprints, too. Of these riders, Mads Pedersen looks the best value at around 7.06/1 for the Points Classification: he's more versatile than most, and is certainly a better bet than Jasper Philipsen at 1.794/5.

The white jersey of the Young Rider Classification will pivot around Remco Evenepoel's form, and given the uncertainties, 4.67/2 is not value. If forced to bet, Carlos Rodriguez 2.77/4 would be the pick, but those odds are not especially attractive, and Matteo Jorgenson - who rode consistently at the Dauphine - might offer more value at around 7.06/1. It's likely a market to sit out, though.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

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