Tour de France Betting Tips: 9/4 Pogacar can dominate Stage 4

• Tadej Pogacar (3.259/4) is the in-form rider and can win this

• Jonas Vingegaard (11.010/1) might stay with him but will lose on descent

• Remco Evenepoel (12.011/1) is likely short of training

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What's the stage like?

Short and brutish. At less than 140km, Stage 4 sees riders enter France across the category two climbs of Sestrieres and Montgenevre, before they tackle the super category Galibier: 21km of ascent averaging 5.1% gradient. The stage finishes with a 20km fast descent into Valloire. Nairo Quintana won a similar stage here in 2019, and this should likewise go the way of one of General Classification contenders.

Who are the favourites?

Tadej Pogacar (3.259/4) is the rightful favourite and it's hard to bet against him. He showed on Stage 2 that he has retained his stellar Giro form, and although Jonas Vingegaard (11.010/1) was able to hold on to his tail, Pogacar would be favoured on the descent if the two did go clear again.

With bonus seconds available at the top of the Galibier, the motivation will be there for Pogacar to attack over the top of it.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Remco Evenepoel (12.011/1) struggled to stick with the favourites in the initial move on Stage 2, but did claw his way back on the run-in to the finish. This high-altitude, punchy stage will be a test of whether Evenepoel has recovered from his Basque Tour injury woes, however, and it would not be a huge surprise to see him distanced.

Given the bonus seconds available, I don't expect a breakaway to be given much rope on this stage, but if you are looking for a big-priced outsider at juicy odds, a rider like Jesus Herrada (120.0119/1) is your man.

How will it affect the overall markets?

It's unlikely the General Classification will be settled at the end of this stage, but expect plenty of wannabee contenders to realise that their hopes lie in targeting a stage win, not contesting the overall.

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