US Weekend Preview: Debt Ceiling to secure the funds

Timeform
19 July 2013

Graeme North has found a bet for you at Saratoga on Sunday

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Graeme North has previewed the best of the US action at Delaware, Del Mar and Saratoga...

Debt Ceiling was sent off a ludicrous 5-1 in the Bashford Manor and he could easily be an overlay again at Saratoga given he hasn't yet recorded an outstandingly fast final timefigure and is up against several once-raced promising Belmont maiden winners with seemingly good efforts on the clock to their name...

The first Grade 1 event of Saratoga's 150th anniversary meet is the TVG Coaching Club American Oaks (off 17:45 local time, 22:45 BST) over nine furlongs on the main track on Saturday and one might be forgiven for thinking that we are still racing at Belmont given the small turnout for a top-level prize on the dirt. Morning Line favourite at 1.8 is Princess Of Sylmar and that's a view hard to contend with as, by our reckoning, she has 4lb in hand of her nearest rival and stablemate Unlimited Budget (who finished behind her in the G1 Kentucky Oaks last time) and 10lb over next best pair My Happy Face and Marathon Lady.

Princess Of Sylmar, who has won five of her seven races, was sent off at long odds in the Kentucky Oaks having been beaten on her first foray into Graded company on her preceding start. There was little fluke about her Oaks success, though, as she kept close tabs on Unlimited Budget as the pair raced third and fourth down the back stretch before finishing the stronger to edge out Beholder. It's doubtful whether Princess Of Sylmar will get an equally strong pace to chase on this occasion with only My Happy Face, who made all to beat another CCA Oaks rival Cue The Moon narrowly in the G3 Tempted at Aqueduct last November, having shown much inclination to be ridden from the front before, but she isn't dependent on a fast pace to show her best form as her wide-margin win in a non-graded stakes at Aqueduct three starts back shows. Unlimited Budget can be forgiven her run in the Belmont Stakes last time in view of the trip and looks clear second best with Marathon Lady having been well held in third behind Kentucky Oaks seventh Close Hatches in the G1 Mother Goose at Belmont last time.

The preceding G3 Shuvee Handicap (17:12, 22:12 BST) for fillies and mares over the same trip has attracted seven runners but with Timeform top-rated duo Authenticity and Summer Applause also entered to run in the G1 Delaware Handicap over a mile and quarter the same day the exact starting line up remains uncertain. If both turn up at Saratoga preference would be for Authenticity who has a string of smart efforts to her name and was just edged out by Tiz Miz Sue at Belmont last time, form which looks slightly stronger than Summer Applause's victory over a slightly questionable field last time at Pimlico. However, the most popular winner without question would be Zenyatta's half-sister Eblouissante who is defending her unbeaten record. She faces a stiff task back from a six-month break but even her presence might create an underlay if one of the top-rated pair miss Delaware.

Only five went to post last year in the G1 Eddie Read (17:40, 01:40 BST) at Del Mar over nine furlongs on the turf but this year's renewal is far more competitive, not just in term of number of runners but strength in depth too with just 3lb on Timeform ratings covering the top six in the ratings. One of that sextet Jeranimo has been put in at 4.5 favourite on the Morning Line which is a tad surprising given that he has been some way below his best this year, including when defending his crown last time in the Shoemaker Mile at Betfair Hollywood Park where, along with the former French 2000 Guineas winner and reopposing Lucayan, he was one of four beaten easily by the high-class miler Obviously.

Slim Shadey boasts marginally the best form in the field and might well be dangerous if getting his own way in front as he has for his last three wins in California but it's a concern that he has done all his winning at Santa Anita. The reliable Fed Biz shouldn't be far away back on turf after an unsuccessful cross-country trip to New York last time and there is another interesting contender too in the form of ex-French Sofast. He didn't run up to his best tried in blinkers last time in the Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp but prior to that had run well in the Prix du Muguet, but he's unproven on ground as fast as is forecast. Tactics and luck in running look sure to play a big part but they are both difficult to call, so recommending a bet isn't easy.

The G1 Delaware Handicap (17:20, 22:20 BST) at Delaware sees the latest appearance of the top-class mare Royal Delta who conceded weight all round and just got the better of an epic battle with Tiz Miz Sue in this race in 2012. Royal Delta might have followed the same route as last year to this event - Gulfstream, Dubai, Churchill Downs - but like her compatriots who also took up the challenge in the desert this spring she hasn't come back the same horse she was last year and was beaten readily on her comeback at Churchill, albeit in a tactical affair, by Funny Proposition who had looked no better than useful previously. If Royal Delta returns to her 2012 form she should win despite conceding 5lb to both Authenticity and Summer Applause; if she isn't, as in the Shuvee, Authenticity is narrowly favoured over Summer Applause; if neither of those turn up it's a race best passed over though it wouldn't be a surprise to see Centring show further improvement stepped up to her longest trip yet.

Saratoga hosts the classiest and easily most intriguing two-year-old race of the year so far on Sunday when seven runners face the starter in the Sanford Stakes (17:20, 22:20 BST) over six furlongs. The G2 contest has attracted Timeform's current top-rated juvenile, Debt Ceiling, who has won all three of his races notably the first Graded of the season for juveniles, the Bashford Manor at Churchill Downs last time, easing down by nearly three lengths (value nearer six) from Hollywood Ceiling. On his previous start Debt Ceiling had won the Rollicking Stakes at Pimlico very readily and two of those in the frame behind him, Silvertonguedtommy and Sweet Emma Rose, have since advertised the merit of that effort with a win in non-graded stakes at Colonial Downs and second place in the Queen Mary respectively.

In terms of ratings Debt Ceiling is on a par by our reckoning with Norfolk winner No Nay Never and that will make him very difficult to beat. He was sent off a ludicrous 5-1 in the Bashford Manor and he could easily be an overlay again at Saratoga given he hasn't yet recorded an outstandingly fast final timefigure and is up against several once-raced promising Belmont maiden winners with seemingly good efforts on the clock to their name. All In Blue, Wired Bryan, Jake's Magic Hat and Yes Liz (also engaged at Saratoga on Friday but not a definite runner at the time of writing) all fall into that category and 'could be anything. Interestingly, and probably significantly as this race may well pan out, they all won their races from or very close to the front and any sort of pace battle will only play into the hands of Debt Ceiling who has won his last two races from off the pace and as things stand has shown form 13 lb in advance of any of his rivals.

Recommended Bet:

Back Debt Ceiling in the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga on Sunday

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