Alan Dudman is standing in for Gary O'Brien this Sunday, and he is backing a couple of double-figure priced selections on the Sportsbook at Tipperary....
"He galloped on well in that race over 1m in soft conditions, and with a similar set of circumstances, he could be staying on at the end."
Lavery's Story can build on recent Gowran return
Lots of rain is forecast as of Monday for Tipperary, in fact, for five whole days. Sunday's meeting could escape the showers, but I'm still expecting soft or yielding conditions for an excellent card that mixes the Flat and jump racing. Something for everybody.
One horse I have been keeping tabs on this term is Sheila Lavery's Breaking Story - and I am happy to take the 12/1 Sportsbook price on him. He looks a good each-way bet for this 0-100 1m1f handicap.
The 3yo was a bit unlucky in a very competitive early-season handicap back in April at Naas. The winner that afternoon Sunshine Superman bolted up by five lengths (a horse that Breaking Story beat on his juvenile debut), but the selection was denied a clear run and met some trouble in the final furlong. He wouldn't have beaten the winner, but he certainly could have got a lot closer.
He was off the track for 150 days subsequently, and made a pleasing return at Gowran Park recently in a race where he travelled very well before a rather tame ending as he didn't find an awful lot when let down. He hasn't stood a whole lot of racing in his career, so there's every chance he needed that to sharpen up his match fitness, and I expect a better finishing effort.
Down to a mark of 89 now for his second run in a handicap, I want to keep him onside as the Naas race from April has worked out well, and there's still more to come from this horse.
I think he'll like the ground too if there is some cut.
Black Magic Woman could gain a place, but Bowerman worth chancing at big odds
The feature Group 3 Concorde Stakes at 14:30 has attracted entries from a few handicappers that are chasing a bit of success at a higher grade. Dermot Weld's Imaging is the right favourite as he is proven at the level, but if you take him out of the equation, this looks wide-open.
There is a 4 Places market on the Exchange available, which could be ideal for the ultra-tough Black Magic Woman to nick a place. Although that doesn't really give her credit, as she has been superb this season with 12 runs, two victories, three seconds and a third. She is holding her form well and she has really done her trainer Jack Davison proud - in success and in defeat.
She was trading in the win market last night at around the [9.60] mark.
At bigger odds, I am having a go at the Aido McGuinness-trained Bowerman.
I remember this horse when he was trained by Roger Varian in the UK, and he won a handicap at Newcastle with a good turn of foot from a mark of 94. At one time he finished second to the great stayer Stradivarius in a maiden. But you need an even better memory for that!
He has been fragile, but he has a lot of ability, and connections paid 52,000gns for the horse.
With three starts for McGuinness, it's good to see him putting together a sequence of runs together which culminated in victory last time at Gowran Park. He galloped on well in that race over 1m in soft conditions, and with a similar set of circumstances (hopefully soft ground), he could be staying on at the end.
Cody can spring another surprise with improving Razoul
The Grade 3 Joe Mac Novice Hurdle at 15:30 does revolve around the [2.34] favourite Turnpike Trip. But at a much bigger price I am backing the improving Razoul.
This horse is on the upgrade, and I am pleased connections are having a go at a decent race following a pair of impressive victories.
He scored in his maiden hurdle success by ten lengths at Kilbeggan in July and raced handy in that with a fine round of jumping, but he also travels well - a quality he displayed when landing a handicap when 7lb out at Listowel. He beat the 126-rated Top Moon in second, and a 131-horse further behind. It might be dangerous to underestimate him for this Graded race.
With form on good and yielding, his ability to quicken up in a small field should come into play for this as the jumps' track has a quicker going description (officially good at the time of writing).
His trainer Ray Cody has outlined the Galway Hurdle as a long term target for 2020, but for now, the Joe Mac would be just the ticket.
Back Breaking Story each-way @ 12/1 Sportsbook price in the 14:00 at Tipperary
Back Bowerman each-way @ 12/1 Sportsbook price in the 14:30 at Tipperary
Back Razoul @ [5.4] in the 15:30 at Tipperary