Cox Plate Preview: Get set for stellar contest

Gary Crispe
26 October 2012

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Regarded as the weight-for-age championship of Australasian racing, the Group 1 W.S.Cox Plate, run at Moonee Valley over the extended ten furlongs, has been the benchmark for our equine champions since its inception in 1922...

Ocean Park resumed with a near last-to-first win in the G1 Makfi Stakes over 1400m at Hastings, showing a dazzling turn of foot against specialist sprinters...

Phar Lap (1930/1), Young Idea (1936/7), Beau Vite (1940/1), Flight (1945/6), Hydrogen (1952/3), Tobin Bronze (1966/7), Sunline (1999/0), Northerly (2001/2), Fields Of Omagh (2003/8) and So You Think (2009/10) all managed two wins in the legendary race, but there has been only one triple winner - the incomparable Kingston Town (1980/1/2) trained by Gai Waterhouse's late father, Tommy Smith.

Many other great Australasian thoroughbreds have won the Cox Plate like Might And Power (1998), Octagonal (1995), Super Impose (1992), Better Loosen Up (1990), Bonecrusher (1986), Red Anchor (1984), Strawberry Road (1983), Gunsynd (1972), Aquanita (1962) and Tulloch (1960).

Each year the field quality varies but the race always assembles the very best gallopers from all age groups available at that time - all aiming to have their name etched into equine history.

There is little doubt this year's renewal ranks as one of the best in recent memory. No less than 10 previous Group 1 winners line up in a field of 14, comprising three three-year-olds equal to the largest representation of that age group since Redoute's Choice, Testa Rossa and Commands all failed behind the mighty Sunline in the 1999 renewal.

In a touch of irony for this race, just like All Too Hard and Pierro who fought out the Caulfield Guineas a fortnight back, Redoute's Choice and Testa Rossa had also staged a length of the straight battle in the same classic in 1999 only to be found wanting against older horses in the Cox Plate.

A gauge of the quality of this Cox Plate field can be gleaned from the fact seven of the 14 runners enter the race with a Timeform rating of 124 or higher. This is the highest number of horses in that ratings category to contest a Cox Plate in the last 20 years, eclipsing previous renewals 2002, 2000, 1999 that had six such runners.

The last New Zealand-trained galloper to win a Cox Plate was the mighty Sunline in 2000, many Kiwis would say it is their turn again, especially as Jimmy Choux came close last year only to be run down by Pinker Pinker. New Zealand will be represented by the rapidly improving Ocean Park currently trading on Betfair at 7.006/1. Timeform rated 125p, he is undefeated in three Group 1 victories this preparation.
Ocean Park resumed with a near last-to-first win in the G1 Makfi Stakes over 1400m at Hastings, showing a dazzling turn of foot against specialist sprinters. Sent straight to Australia he then had too much class for Voila Ici in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) before a soft win in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) defeating subsequent Caulfield Cup runner-up Alcopop.

Regular rider Glen Boss, who has won two previous Cox Plates with So You Think (2009) and Makybe Diva (2005) from a handful of rides in the feature, will again have the responsibility for steering Ocean Park. I can see him positioning Ocean Park off the speed early and delivering him late, utilising the horse's superior acceleration in the straight. Ocean Park already has a Timeform rating equal to the five year winning average for the race, however he profiles as a progressive type with more to give.

On that assumption, he is my selection for the race marginally ahead of Shoot Out (126) and More Joyous (128) as the horses to beat. In fact, there is not much between this trio, all three proven Group 1 performers.

2010 AJC Derby winner Shoot Out, trading at 27.026/1 on Betfair, is a four time Group 1 winner who has been rating consistently in seven runs since joining the Chris Waller stable, winning both the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes and G1 George Main Stakes under his care. Shoot Out comes into the race third up, a similar profile to 2003 winner Fields Of Omagh. He resumed with a strong win in the George Main Stakes (All Too Hard third) over 1600m at Randwick then had no luck under a big weight in the G1 Epsom Handicap. Interestingly 2011 Cox Plate winner Pinker Pinker also came directly off the Epsom last year.

Shoot Out is much better suited under this afternoon's weight-for-age conditions but it is worth casting our minds back to the 2010 Cox Plate renewal won by So You Think. That renewal was the strongest in the last 20 years with So You Think running to a Timeform rating of 132. Significantly, both Shoot Out and More Joyous contested that race. Shoot Out finished fourth and running to his peak rating of 126 while More Joyous rating 119 was fifth, just over two lengths separating the pair on the line. Admittedly, More Joyous tried to lead throughout and was "softened up" by So You Think after the 700m mark in a move that saw her crack and drop off the speed. While she can be expected to do better this afternoon, on the basis of that match up, Shoot Out should have her measure again.

Champion mare More Joyous, currently 12.50 on Betfair, has been in sparkling form over the last twelve months, remaining undefeated in Sydney during the Autumn and taking three Group 1 races in succession, The Queen of The Turf Stakes (1500m), Doncaster Handicap (1600m) and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m). She has raced three times this campaign for two easy wins in lesser class in Sydney prior to her last start fourth in the G1 Toorak Handicap (1600m) under 60kgs when a short-priced favourite.

There is no doubt that if she bought her Sydney ratings to Melbourne she would clearly rate as the horse to beat, however she invariably rates on average around five pounds below that form in Melbourne. Her chances this afternoon have been assessed on that basis which still affords her a rating sufficient to put her right in contention as a winning chance.

In an interesting move, trainer Gai Waterhouse chose barrier 11 for More Joyous, something that surprised even her high profile owner John Singleton. However, it is hard to question Gai, she get more decisions right than wrong.

This would be in contrast to her outstanding win in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2000m in the Autumn where she led throughout to win comfortably from Manighar and Secret Admirer however this afternoon's contest is looming as a much harder assignment.

Three-year-olds have a moderate record in the Cox Plate, the last to be successful was the outstanding So You Think in 2009 and prior to him Savabeel in 2004. Since 1970, 125 three-year-olds have contested the Cox Plate with just seven being successful. However, their success can be linked to the quality of the field. For example, three-year-olds have a better record when the field comprises fewer higher rated older horses. But that is certainly not the case this year and a three-year-old victory in this line up would certainly be some achievement.

I confess to not being a breeding expert, but, just looking at their breeding for a moment, of all three perhaps the stoutest bred is glamour-colt Pierro, trading at 4.407/2 on Betfair, who on the dam side is bred to stay 2000m.

All Too Hard, 11.5021/2 on Betfair, is a half brother to champion sprinting mare Black Caviar from a sire who never won past 1600m, while Proisir 10.5019/2 on Betfair, is predominantly speed on both sides of his pedigree. On raw ratings, Pierro and All Too Hard have Timeform figures that make them competitive if reproduced in the "pressure cooker" environment they face this afternoon.

All Too Hard rated 125 defeating Pierro in the Caulfield Guineas, but Guineas winners have a poor record in the Cox Plate, Helmet a case in point last year. The last Guineas winner to take the double was the outstanding stoutly-bred stayer Red Anchor in 1984. He also took the Victoria Derby (2500m) after the Cox Plate. I am not sure All Too Hard is quite in that league, however Pierro could be a different case. The outstanding colt went into the Caulfield Guineas undefeated in eight starts but was used up early and fell easy prey to All Too Hard in the closing stages. However, the fact remains Pierro has not reached his high juvenile Timeform rating of 127 in three starts this time in, 123 being the highest he has run to so far.

Maybe the arduous juvenile campaign is coming against Pierro or perhaps he is taking more time to get fully fit after two comfortable wins early this campaign. Either way, Pierro remains amongst the winning hopes but he will need to improve on his ratings this campaign. All the same, Pierro is striving to become the first Golden Slipper winner in history to win a Cox Plate - something that may also just be beyond this outstanding colt.

The powerful Lloyd Williams Team is desperately searching for their first Cox Plate. They believe they have a great chance with former European galloper Green Moon, 5.309/2 on Betfair, who has continued to acclimatize and improve since coming down under. Winner of the G3 Newcastle Gold Cup (2300m), G2 Blamey Stakes (1600m) and G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) in just 10 race starts in Australia, Green Moon has had his preparation timed for the Cox Plate, connections resisting the temptation to run in last Saturday's Caulfield Cup where he was attractively weighted.

Timeform rated 122p, Green Moon currently rates below the value required to win a Cox Plate but such is the improvement this fellow has made that he has to be kept under winning consideration. Green Moon has an impressive record at 2000m, winning four of his five attempts and placing on the other occasion. His win in the Turnbull Stakes last time out over Seville was solid but he did receive a weight advantage under the conditions of that race whereas this afternoon he is required carry full weight for age.

A most intriguing Cox Plate awaits, sit back and enjoy a great contest.

Off Time: 07.15 BST

Recommendation:

Back Ocean Park @ 7.006/1 on Betfair.

Visit timeform.com to get your FREE TIMEFORM CARD for Moonee Valley. And remember, the Cox Plate card will be covered in full live on Timeform Radio.