Timeform Trainer Rankings: Moore to come from Betfair Hurdle contender?

Unlike with potential winners of Super Saturday's Betfair Hurdle, the list of those that have relished one of the wettest winters on record is a pretty short one. 

Surely one name on there is Venetia Williams, who for a second successive season has made hay whilst the rain has poured. Having boosted the coffers of punters who have latched on to her success in recent times, despite not having a runner can she still help us shorten our list for the big race?

When comparing Timeform trainer ratings for the past four seasons to the equivalent ratings generated in races on heavy going, she does seem to benefit for her runners getting more testing ground. Of the 53 stables with more than 100 heavy-ground runners in the past 5 seasons, the Hereford-based trainer has the second highest positive difference from her overall rating. 

In other words, her runners as a whole appear to be better suited to testing conditions.

The theory of her faring better when the going is on the softer side of good is also supported by the more traditional analysis tool of impact values. Impact values compare the number of winners a trainer has had to the expected number based on field size, number of runners and races.

Although she sends out far fewer runners on better going (which in a more qualitative sense could be an indicator in itself), her impact value improves to being above average when racing is on ground softer than good.

Of course the overriding factor is obviously the horses themselves. Pedigrees can often be crucial as to ascertaining if a horse will handle a certain type of going. Likewise a horse's action can often prove crucial as to whether a horse will handle cut in the ground. However, if there are any training methods she employs to gain an advantage in the conditions, they are definitely working. 

One horse on Saturday that will undoubtedly benefit from this is Katenko in the Denman Chase. He travelled superbly for a long way in the Hennessy at the course earlier in the season following a severe bout of colic. He was probably turned out too quickly and over a shorter than ideal a trip a week on from his fall in that race and then may have found Haydock too sharp a track last time out.

Should Al Ferof hold his ground, the race may be a telling Gold Cup trial should Cheltenham turn up equally testing in a month's time.

Although Williams is not directly represented in the day's feature handicap hurdle, her stable jockey Aidan Coleman does look to have a live chance on the Brian Ellison-trained Totalize. After failing to get going at all in the Ladbroke having been well supported, he bounced back at Cheltenham with the hood reapplied and now seems fairly well treated.

Unlike Williams however, Ellison does not have appear to have the same favourable swing towards extreme conditions. 

Of course, it is no secret that the ground will be deep and horses that can't handle it wouldn't have been entered. Those trainers with the highest negative difference are represented by horses with extremely strong claims.

Top Three Negative Difference

However, to narrow our list down from the 22 runners, it may prove advantageous to focus on two trainers who do seem to send runners out regularly that thrive in the mud. 

Top 3 Positive Difference

An advantage is certainly not something often required for the training powerhouse that is the Willie Mullins operation. Yet somehow, his top trainer rating is even better if it is based solely on heavy-ground runners.

Having bettered the pick of his French form in his stable debut, the aptly-named Smashing then did just that to his rivals in a four-year-old hurdle at Limerick. Having had only two starts in Ireland, he could be very dangerous starting out in handicaps with a mark of 143.

Like any top brand however, the Mullins name has an impact on price. 13.525/2 is short enough for what he has achieved so far, but still appeals for those willing to back the skill of his trainer.

At a much juicier price, Chris Pea Green represents a handler in Gary Moore whose runners seemingly have a comparable penchant for testing going as Venetia Williams'. 

Despite having the profile of an exposed horse, he has only encountered heavy going once, when making a winning start in juvenile hurdles at Lingfield.

Last time out in the Ladbroke, he had current race favourite Irish Saint well behind him. Admittedly being closer to the pace helped, but this was the second time he had been beaten by the Moore-trained gelding this season. 

Travelling well until three out, Chris Pea Green showed a tough attitude as he battled into the places, despite being outpaced. If the experience of a large field handicap helps him progress further, he looks excellent each-way value at 36.035/1. 

When the going gets tough, let's hope the very tough Chris Pea Green get going.