Timeform Jockey Ratings: Who's the best value?

For those watching Channel 4's coverage of the Hennessy Gold Cup, the pre-race appearance of the injured Timmy Murphy is likely to have stirred emotions.  

Ruled out through the excruciating pain of two damaged vertebrae less than 24 hours earlier, Murphy still managed to offer his thoughts on the chances of The Package when in all reality he should have been laid up at home.

It was a stark reminder of the sacrifices and risks professional jockeys take every time they leave the weighing room.

Yet, despite the challenging and dangerous life over jumps in particular, jockeys often face fierce post-race criticism whether truly warranted or not.

What is often forgotten is that a jockey isn't responsible for how well backed their rides are, nor should they be discriminated against for the quality of horse they are partnered with - in fact, it should reflect how much faith those to whom the horses fortunes matter most have in them.

However, this is not to say that there aren't riders plying their trade on much less fancied horses who are capable of netting the same result.

When evaluating a price about a horse, it can pay to have confidence that the adjustment for who is on board is fair. Even more valuable is the knowledge that compared to the average market view, a jockey is undervalued.

Below are the top ten jump jockeys based on a combination of Market Value and pre-race Timeform ratings of their rides. *

Market Value is expressed as the factor by which the % chance of a Betfair Starting Price exceeds random, as implied by field size. For example, a horse that is shorter than 4.0 in a 4 runner field will have a Market Value above 1.

* Calculated for all jockeys with at least 100 runs over hurdles, chases or bumpers in the last 12 months, limited to their last 100 qualifying runs in each discipline. Please note that these are not seasonal ratings but a snapshot of current riding form.

Using the Timeform jockey ratings introduced in an earlier article, three jockeys stand out as being significantly undervalued compared to those occupying the very top spots in terms of ensuring their mounts perform to expectation.

For each, we disclose their Timeform jockey rating (as lbs above average), average Market Value as discussed earlier and the pre-race master rating of each qualifying mount.

3. Conor O'Farrell (Timeform Rating +3.96, Average Market Value: 1.67, Average Master Rating: 106.05)
Highest Timeform Rated Horse Ridden In Qualifying Period: Dynaste 17/12/2012

The musical chairs resulting from the injury to Murphy, saw Tom Scudamore head to Newbury to take his rides and David Pipe's number two jockey fill in at Newcastle for a sole ride aboard Junior in the day's final race. Under top weight, O'Farrell confidently steered the former Festival winner to victory over the favourite, rewarding his employer's faith in the enforced reshuffle.

Undoubtedly the highlight of O'Farrell's young career was the 2011 Pertemps Final win aboard Buena Vista, who, despite defending his title, was the stable's second string on the day. Although O'Farrell modestly described himself as being 'just a passenger' it verified that he is more than capable of ensuring horses deliver to expectation. 

2. Wayne Hutchinson (Timeform Rating +4.17, Avg Market Value 1.69, Avg Master 109.23)
Highest Timeform Rated Horse Ridden In Qualifying Period: Raya Star 03/11/2012

In all sports, the primary goal of a backup is to step in when needed as seamlessly as possible. Like O'Farrell, Hutchinson has proved himself on numerous occasions of being able to do just that, as judged by Timeform ratings. The primary example of the King number two stepping into the shoes of the injured Robert Thornton came on Festival Trials day at Cheltenham, where he rode a 267/1 treble following earlier successes in the Ladbroke Hurdle, Becher Chase and HBLB Handicap Chase.

Although older than the other two jockeys in this list, Hutchinson still has plenty of time on his hands to deliver more silverware to Barbury Castle.

1. Bryan Cooper (Timeform Rating +5.53, Avg Market Value 1.77, Avg Master 112.96)
Highest Timeform Rated Horse Ridden In Qualifying Period: First Lieutenant 01/12/2012

Our ratings suggest Bryan Cooper, just 20 years old and stable jockey to Dessie Hughes, could become one of the sport's biggest names over the next few years. Riding out his claim at just 19, the son of trainer Tom Cooper has already bagged some big race wins in Ireland as well as a big-price winner at the Cheltenham Open meeting and a fine spin aboard First Lieutenant in this year's Hennessy Gold Cup.

Although he does feature in the above table, based on current data he is still well below where should be. Certainly when he has ridden in Britain he has not been at the forefront of the market. In 21 qualifying rides, his horses had a market value of just 0.92. 

However, with higher profile rides and shorter SPs comes increased expectation and the magnifying glass was well and truly on Cooper following defeat aboard long odds-on favourite Wingtips at Leopardstown last month.  This was a rare example of the Kildare youngster being caught out tactically, but, with years of top level riding ahead, Bryan Cooper is heading the new generation of jump jockeys.

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