Wokingham Handicap: How a pace map can help you find the winner

It takes a brave and scrupulous man - or possibly a fool - to admit that his hours of research have come to nothing. But that is my position with regard to "trends" for Royal Ascot's big handicap on Saturday, the Wokingham.

Analysis of Age, Handicap Mark and Draw, from historical data, revealed: that horses aged 7 or over have fared badly (there are only two in the field); that there was little discernible trend regarding handicap mark; and that the draw has tended to favour those on the flanks over those in the centre, but not to a marked degree.

Other pundits might have stopped there and made a recommendation of "no bet". I am a stubborn so-and-so, and I simply changed tack. And I think I may have found something as a result.

One of the first ports of call for the form student in races like this is to try to establish where the early pace is likely to be and whether that may favour one section of the runners over another.

This approach, when formalised, has been termed "pace-mapping", and this is how an example of it looks for Saturday's race (due off at 16:25 BST).

EPF is a horse's Early Position Figure, based on Timeform's unique analysis of its most recent races (Get a free Timeform Race Pass for the Wokingham Handicap HERE). A horse's EPF can range from 1 (confirmed front-runner) to 5 (habitually races in rear). A similar Timeform metric has already proved to be very useful in North America.

Pace maps can be open to more interpretations than The Bible, but the message of this one is fairly clear. There are not only a remarkably small number of likely pace-forcers for a field of this size, but, four of the five that there are, are drawn in the bottom one-third of the field.

In such circumstances, I would rather be on one drawn low than high, and the sole front-runner, Colonel Mak, makes quite a bit of appeal.

He is also a horse I have had cause to mention previously. He ran in a race at Newmarket on 1000 Guineas Day in which sectionals showed he had to do a good deal of work to be up front in a 24-runner field. It was to his credit that he clung on for third behind late-closers Maarek and Shropshire.

It is not often you might say this, but the Wokingham promises to be a less gruelling pace scenario, and Colonel Mak could just take the step or two further forward required to come out on top.

His stable (David Barron's) has been in fine form of late, and Colonel Mak goes well with give in the ground. It all adds up to a worthwhile bet on a horse who is currently trading at 23.022/1.

Recommendation: 2 pts win Colonel Mak, Wokingham Handicap (Royal Ascot, Saturday)

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