The Derby at Epsom: Why Camelot can be taken on

In writing these blogs on betting.betfair.com on a regular basis over the last five years, I have tried to encourage a sceptical, or even mildly contrarian, viewpoint in my reader(s).

It is not so much a case of "if you say white, then I will say black" as "if you say white, then I feel compelled to point out that white is in fact several other colours combined into one" (thanks go to Isaac Newton for that particular insight).

Therefore, if you have been paying attention, you should have little difficulty in answering the following question: "is Camelot a good bet at around 1.758/11 for The Derby at Epsom?". A clue: the answer is not "yes".

It is almost certainly true that Camelot is the likeliest winner of racing's Blue Riband. He is an unbeaten classic winner, likely to be suited by the longer trip of Saturday's race, and his 11 rivals include four from his own stable, all considered inferior to him.

But every horse has its price, and Camelot's price is the one thing about him that does not smell sweet.

If you wanted to pick holes, you could justifiably point out that the form of the 2000 Guineas that Camelot won a month ago has not worked out especially well.

Hermival and Trumpet Major - third and fourth at Newmarket - finished sixth and last respectively in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh last weekend. Coupe de Ville - fifth at Newmarket - came only seventh in the French equivalent at Longchamp before that.

Camelot got readily on top of French Fifteen near the line at Newmarket, but it was by no means a walk in the park for him before that. His Guineas-winning Timeform rating of 123 is 3.5 below the average needed to win at Epsom over the last 10 years.

Camelot is inexperienced, with just three races under his belt, and so, in some respects, is his jockey. Joseph O'Brien has yet to ride a winner at Epsom and has had only one ride (Memphis Tennessee, fourth last year) in The Derby itself.

Joseph, like his mount, is talented, but the roller-coaster of Epsom has made a fool of more than a few jockeys over the years.

Camelot's opposition could be stronger, but Bonfire looks a very worthy rival from where I am sitting. The Andrew Balding-trained colt might be unbeaten himself had he had better luck in France last year, and his Dante win in a decent time showed he is not only decidedly smart but also willing to knuckle down when it matters.

Camelot's stablemates Astrology and Imperial Monarch have both been good trial winners, the latter possibly doing very well to overhaul Thought Worthy at Sandown, while the undefeated Main Sequence goes from strength to strength.

Do you still want to back Camelot at odds on? I don't.

Rather than trying to land on the one or more to beat Camelot - in order of personal preference: Bonfire, Imperial Monarch and Main Sequence - I will be "playing bookie" and laying the horse at what seem to me to be cramped odds.

I don't much like the O'Brien-trained favourite in The Oaks on Friday, either, but Maybe is nothing like so short as Camelot (nor as likely to win, it has to be said).

Maybe is by the Derby winner Galileo, but her dam was a sprinter, and she has neither raced at further than a mile nor shaped as if that is what she needs.

Despite what some may tell you, Epsom is not a good place for doubtful stayers, at least at longer trips: the first four furlongs of the classic trip is as testing as you will find anywhere in the UK.

Maybe may not be odds on, but her presence at the head of the market makes for appealing prices about some of her rivals. The Fugue ran the best Oaks trial in winning the Musidora Stakes at York in a good time, while Vow is bred for stamina and has already achieved near-smart form in just two runs.

That pair come in at combined odds of around 2.608/5 and should give punters a really good run for their money.

Recommendations

2 pts lay Camelot at 1.84/5 or shorter in The Derby

1.5 pts win The Fugue at 4.03/1 or longer and 1 pt win Vow at 7.06/1 or longer in The Oaks
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